Mesoscale Discussion 0003
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CST Mon Jan 02 2023

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma across the Arklatex

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021734Z - 022000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing convection -- and a corresponding/gradual
   increase in severe/tornado risk -- across the broader Arklatex
   vicinity will likely require Tornado Watch issuance this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a steady increase in convective
   coverage across parts of East Texas, and northeastward into southern
   Arkansas.  This convection is ongoing within a zone of low-level
   warm advection well ahead of the main upper system (now over
   Colorado).  Weak height falls over the next several hours should
   continue contributing to an environment that supports an increase in
   QG-ascent-driven storms.

   A seasonably warm/moist boundary layer is observed across the area,
   with low 70s dewpoints across much of East Texas and into western
   Louisiana/southern Arkansas.  While substantial cloud cover is
   limiting diurnal heating, gradual/modest additional destabilization
   will likely fuel the anticipated convective increase.  This trend is
   also highlighted within some CAM runs, particularly including latest
   runs of the HRRR, which show substantial increases in both coverage
   and intensity of storms over the next few hours.

   While somewhat meridional/southerly, the deep-layer wind field
   across the area exhibits increasing flow with height through the
   lowest half of the troposphere.  This is resulting in ample shear
   for organized/rotating storms.  Gradual strengthening of the flow
   with time, as the upper system advances, will lend additional
   support to an anticipated/gradual increase in risk.  We will
   continue to monitor convective evolution, with expectations that a
   tornado watch will eventually be needed across a good portion of the
   discussion area this afternoon.

   ..Goss/Hart.. 01/02/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31249546 31619586 33599552 34629462 35049353 35039257
               34459178 33309218 31719302 31039355 30929412 31249546