Mesoscale Discussion 0152
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0653 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2023

   Areas affected...southeastern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33...

   Valid 160053Z - 160300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 33
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential continues within WW33
   through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across southern
   Oklahoma this evening north of the Red River. 00z soundings from Ft
   Worth indicate that the cap has weakened but remains in place
   further south of the Red River. Moisture has been gradually
   increasing northward with surface dewpoints in the mid 50s observed
   into central Oklahoma just south of the Oklahoma City metro. Expect
   further storm development to continue as the warm front nudges
   northward through the next few hours. Presently, the best
   instability remains south of the Oklahoma City metro near the Red
   River where SBCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is observed in surface
   objective analysis. Any more isolated storm that can develop within
   the warm sector ahead of the advancing cold front will pose a risk
   for severe hail up to 1-1.5", given deep layer shear around 60 kts.
   As the front advances eastward by 04-06z, expect multicellular mode
   to become more linear and grow upscale. Threat will then likely
   transition to damaging wind, with more isolated severe hail within
   stronger cores.

   ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/16/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34269825 34599794 35069715 35119649 35119609 34879535
               34589448 34339448 34109466 33989482 33879518 33819561
               33839606 33909696 33959759 33979802 33979818 34269825