Mesoscale Discussion 0438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0511 PM CDT Sun Apr 02 2023

   Areas affected...North/Central TX

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 110...

   Valid 022211Z - 030015Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 110 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for supercells capable of all severe hazards,
   including very large hail and tornadoes, will continue for at least
   the next few hours across central TX.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a low about 60 miles
   north-northeast of ABI, with a dryline extending south from this low
   to near BWD and then back southwestward through the Edwards Plateau.
   A few storms have initiated along this boundary over the Low Rolling
   Plains, where surface temperatures are in the upper 70s/low 80s amid
   dewpoints in the mid 60s. Mid-level lapse rates remain steep (i.e. 7
   to 7.5 degrees C per km), which, when combined with the relatively
   warm and moist low-levels, is supporting moderate instability.
   Recent mesoanalysis estimates 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. 

   Additionally, surface winds throughout the warm sector are southerly
   at 10 to 15 kt, veering to more southwesterly at 40 kt by 1 km. This
   shear is sampled well by recent VAD profiles at FWS and GRK, which
   place the 0-1 SRH around 200 m2/s2. These conditions suggest the
   ongoing storms should continue, with the overall environment
   remaining supportive of supercells for at least the next few hours.
   All severe hazards will remain possible, including very large hail
   and tornadoes.

   ..Mosier.. 04/02/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   32919924 33339897 33409856 33339789 32859693 32409618
               32029554 31629553 31079590 30759683 30869764 31119823
               31659885 32119905 32919924