Mesoscale Discussion 0762
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1158 AM CDT Thu May 11 2023

   Areas affected...much of western Kansas and small parts of bordering
   states

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 111658Z - 111930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will gradually increase in intensity and coverage
   throughout the day from eastern Colorado arcing southeastward across
   western and central Kansas. Large hail is likely, with a few
   tornadoes and damaging gusts possible as well.

   DISCUSSION...Visible imagery show favorable boundary layer
   conditioning as storms from eastern CO into western KS begin to
   intensity. Surface heating will continue to steepen lapse rates and
   increase instability over a wide area, from NE southward across KS.
   Meanwhile, low-level winds are strengthening across the TX/OK
   Panhandles into southwest KS, which will enhance convergence and
   instability into southwest KS soon. 

   Deep-layer easterlies within the lowest  2-3 km with strengthening
   southwesterlies aloft will favor supercells. While low-level SRH may
   not be particularly strong due to the entrenched easterlies in the
   low levels, it will be sufficient given cooling aloft and favorable
   time of day. In addition, these hodographs should strongly favor
   damaging hail with forward-tilting storms.

   ..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/11/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37159859 36979898 36839970 36800032 37030061 37330085
               37790136 38100161 38500215 38800241 39210234 39610220
               39900184 40080130 40140031 40069991 39699940 38939880
               38449858 38239851 37739846 37339846 37159859