Mesoscale Discussion 0978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 PM CDT Sun Jun 11 2023

   Areas affected...Portions of southeast Colorado...northeast New
   Mexico...the western Oklahoma Panhandle and far northwest Texas
   Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267...

   Valid 112206Z - 112330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 267
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe weather threat, which is primarily large to
   very large hail, will persist through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Strengthening low-level upslope flow (1km deep per PUX
   VWP) has led to the development of numerous thunderstorms along the
   Colorado Front Range. The strongest of these is a supercell which
   has taken a right turn across Las Animas county. Most CAM guidance
   indicated only one or two strong storms may materialize, but that
   they could persist well into the evening and eventually move into
   the TX/OK Panhandle. Current observations would support this
   solution as additional strong cells have not developed yet and the
   environment remains favorable (1000+ MLCAPE and 40 knots of
   effective shear) ahead of the ongoing strong supercell. Hail up to 2
   inches has already been reported in Las Animas county with similar
   peak hail size expected for the duration of the supercell lifecycle
   as it moves southeast this evening. 

   Will not rule out additional strong supercell development this
   evening, but expect the primary threat will be associated with the
   ongoing strong supercell in Las Animas county.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/11/2023

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36250539 37400514 38150415 38070235 37050186 36170208
               36080334 36250539