Mesoscale Discussion 0064
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0249 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024

   Areas affected...Upstate New York

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 142049Z - 150045Z

   SUMMARY...The onset of heavy snowfall rates up to (and possibly
   exceeding) two inches per hour is anticipated in the next few hours
   for the northeast shore of Lake Ontario. A heavy lake-effect snow
   band emanating off Lake Erie should continue into the early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar trends over the past hour have shown the
   development of a more persistent lake-effect snow band in the
   Watertown, NY vicinity. Additionally, low-level confluence over Lake
   Ontario may be increasing based on trends in the shallow convective
   streaks in GOES visible imagery. High-res model guidance has hinted
   in the development of a more persistent lake-effect band beginning
   during the 21-00 UTC period over the past several model runs. The
   aforementioned observed trends lend confidence to this forecast and
   suggest the onset may be closer to the 21-23 UTC period. Upstream,
   lake-effect bands coming off of Lake Erie have resulted in snowfall
   rates up to 2 in/hour. Given similar thermodynamic profiles aloft
   and warmer water temperatures (6 C vs. 4 C), similar, if not higher,
   snowfall rates are expected. 

   To the southwest, a persistent lake-effect band to the south of
   Buffalo, NY is expected to persist into the evening hours. As
   mentioned, snowfall rates up to 2 in/hour have been observed, and
   strong low-level confluence over Lake Erie is noted in recent
   surface observations. Guidance hints at a gradual weakening of this
   band after the 00 UTC time frame.

   ..Moore.. 01/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43837636 44047626 44267527 44277493 44157463 44057453
               43777450 43587463 43497483 43557597 43627624 43737632
               43837636