Mesoscale Discussion 0142
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 AM CST Wed Feb 14 2024

   Areas affected...central through east central South Dakota

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 141349Z - 141715Z

   SUMMARY...Snow rates may increase up to around 1 inch per hour, in
   one or more bands developing within a broader area of snow spreading
   eastward across central and eastern South Dakota, mainly to the
   north of the Interstate 90 corridor through 10 AM-Noon CST.

   DISCUSSION...Downstream of low amplitude mid-level troughing
   crossing the Rockies, large-scale ascent, associated with
   lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection to the north and east of the
   Black Hills, has supported a developing shield of mostly still light
   to moderate snow.  This is forecast to gradually spread eastward
   across central and eastern South Dakota, mainly to the north of the
   Interstate 90 corridor through midday.  As it does, models indicate
   strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis within this
   regime, which forecast soundings indicate will support increasing
   upward vertical motion within roughly the 700-600 mb layer, where
   saturated thermodynamic profiles with temperatures around -14 to
   -15C are most conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth.  In
   the presence of precipitable water content increasing to around .4
   inches, it appears that this may be accompanied by one or more bands
   of intensifying snow at rates up to around 1 inch per hour.

   ..Kerr.. 02/14/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   44969972 44789656 43959679 43949896 44110057 44969972