Mesoscale Discussion 0171
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0113 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

   Areas affected...southeast Lower Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26...

   Valid 280713Z - 280915Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 26
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue across parts of
   southeast Lower Michigan over the next 1 to 2 hours. Additional
   weather watch issuance will not be needed, but an extension in area
   could be done if necessary.

   DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from Detroit shows a
   disjointed line of strong to severe storms ongoing 30 to 40 statute
   miles to the north of Detroit. The line of storms is being supported
   by a subtle shortwave trough, and an associated vorticity max,
   located over Lower Michigan evident on water vapor imagery. RAP
   analysis data suggests the MLCAPE is around 500 J/kg, and WSR-88D
   VWPs have 45 to 50 knots of 0-6 km shear. This should support
   isolated supercells capable of producing wind damage and isolated
   large hail. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 225 m2/s2 may also
   be sufficient for a brief tornado as well.

   ..Broyles/Goss.. 02/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DTX...

   LAT...LON   43288248 43438270 43398309 43268340 43098360 42868376
               42678383 42498386 42338381 42218354 42308305 42498260
               42888239 43288248