STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SSW CRE CAE SPA HKY LYH 30 N NHK 35 SE DOV.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT VOK ALO SLN HLC
CYS 30 N RIW 30 NNE IDA BNO 60 NNE MFR OLM 60 E BLI.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AQQ MCN
35 ENE ATL BWG SDF ROC 40 ESE AUG.
--- SYNOPSIS ---
PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
CONUS. DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID TN/CENTRAL KY REGION -- IS FORECAST TO
BECOME OPEN-WAVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POSITIVELY
TILTED. TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST FROM DELMARVA TO
GA...THEN SWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY REGION -- BY APPROXIMATELY
27/06Z. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN GA
SWWD ACROSS MS RIVER MOUTH REGION TO NERN MEX...SHOULD EXIT ALL
ATLANTIC COAST EXCEPT CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA BY END OF PERIOD.
SEVERAL MAJOR OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE CHURNED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...STABILIZING MUCH OF IT SUBSTANTIALLY AND REDUCING SFC
THETAE.
MUCH FARTHER NW...DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC PACIFIC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE
ONSHORE ORE COAST THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD AREA OF MIDLEVEL
COOLING FCST TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF PACIFIC NW.
--- CAROLINAS/VA/DELMARVA ---
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD
ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN CONDITION OF
UPSTREAM AIR MASS. FCST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATE LARGELY
FROM SOURCE REGION NOW STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
ACROSS GA...AL...NRN FL AND NERN GULF. THIS WILL INCREASE DISTANCE
THAT RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED INFLOW AIR MUST TRAVEL TO REACH AREA OF
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS
SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM ATLANTIC LOW.
ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TO SWLY OVER MUCH OF
AREA...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STILL INCREASE AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES.
ACCORDINGLY...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDES DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
-- NRN HIGH PLAINS ---
MIDLEVEL ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
ENHANCE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. MOST CONVECTIVE
FORCING SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED PACIFIC FRONT/LEE
TROUGH...ARCING SEWD/SWD FROM SASK SFC LOW. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...SOMEWHAT HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MID-LATE
AFTERNOON -- SOME OF WHICH MAY ROTATE DISCRETELY OR FORM INTO SMALL
BOWS. MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500
J/KG...AND VERTICAL VECTOR SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SUSTAIN ALL
BUT STRONGEST CELLS. ISOLATED HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
MAY OCCUR...COVERAGE/DURATION LIMITED BY LACK OF MOISTURE/CAPE.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z...EXCEPT NERN
MT/NWRN ND REGION WHERE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED IN BELT
EXTENDING NWWD INTO SASK.
..EDWARDS.. 04/26/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
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