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Apr-26-2003 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
      
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
   35 SSW CRE CAE SPA HKY LYH 30 N NHK 35 SE DOV.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MQT VOK ALO SLN HLC
   CYS 30 N RIW 30 NNE IDA BNO 60 NNE MFR OLM 60 E BLI.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE AQQ MCN
   35 ENE ATL BWG SDF ROC 40 ESE AUG.
   
   --- SYNOPSIS ---
   PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TODAY ACROSS
   CONUS.  DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT ON MOISTURE
   CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MID TN/CENTRAL KY REGION -- IS FORECAST TO
   BECOME OPEN-WAVE/HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...POSITIVELY
   TILTED.  TROUGH SHOULD MOVE EWD TO ATLANTIC COAST FROM DELMARVA TO
   GA...THEN SWWD ACROSS APALACHEE BAY REGION -- BY APPROXIMATELY
   27/06Z.  ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT -- NOW ANALYZED FROM NWRN GA
   SWWD ACROSS MS RIVER MOUTH REGION TO NERN MEX...SHOULD EXIT ALL
   ATLANTIC COAST EXCEPT CENTRAL/SRN FL PENINSULA BY END OF PERIOD. 
   SEVERAL MAJOR OUTFLOW POOLS HAVE CHURNED PREFRONTAL WARM
   SECTOR...STABILIZING MUCH OF IT SUBSTANTIALLY AND REDUCING SFC
   THETAE.
   
   MUCH FARTHER NW...DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC PACIFIC LOW IS FCST TO MOVE
   ONSHORE ORE COAST THIS MORNING.  WIDESPREAD AREA OF MIDLEVEL
   COOLING FCST TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF PACIFIC NW.
   
   --- CAROLINAS/VA/DELMARVA --- 
   WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED TSTMS -- SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE
   DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL -- ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD
   ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA BETWEEN LATE MORNING AND LATE AFTERNOON.  
   LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTY GIVEN CONDITION OF
   UPSTREAM AIR MASS.  FCST LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATE LARGELY
   FROM SOURCE REGION NOW STABILIZED BY PRIOR CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
   ACROSS GA...AL...NRN FL AND NERN GULF.  THIS WILL INCREASE DISTANCE
   THAT RELATIVELY UNMODIFIED INFLOW AIR MUST TRAVEL TO REACH AREA OF
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...HOWEVER...MID/UPPER 60S SFC DEW POINTS
   SHOULD BECOME COMMON ACROSS MUCH OF OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON.  WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   INVOF PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXPECTED TO EXTEND SWWD FROM ATLANTIC LOW. 
   ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS FCST TO VEER TO SWLY OVER MUCH OF
   AREA...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STILL INCREASE AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH
   ENOUGH TO SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELL AND BOW STRUCTURES. 
   ACCORDINGLY...SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDES DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL
   AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   -- NRN HIGH PLAINS ---
   MIDLEVEL ASCENT/COOLING AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
   ENHANCE LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING AND MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.  MOST CONVECTIVE
   FORCING SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH COMBINED PACIFIC FRONT/LEE
   TROUGH...ARCING SEWD/SWD FROM SASK SFC LOW.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED...SOMEWHAT HIGH BASED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MID-LATE
   AFTERNOON -- SOME OF WHICH MAY ROTATE DISCRETELY OR FORM INTO SMALL
   BOWS.  MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500
   J/KG...AND VERTICAL VECTOR SHEAR MAY BE TOO STRONG TO SUSTAIN ALL
   BUT STRONGEST CELLS.  ISOLATED HAIL AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   MAY OCCUR...COVERAGE/DURATION LIMITED BY LACK OF MOISTURE/CAPE. 
   CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH MARKEDLY AFTER ABOUT 02Z...EXCEPT NERN
   MT/NWRN ND REGION WHERE DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS MAXIMIZED IN BELT
   EXTENDING NWWD INTO SASK.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 04/26/03
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1300Z
        
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