SPC AC 252007
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0307 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2003
   
   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW
   CLE 15 NW FDY 30 SSE CGX 45 NNW DBQ 45 SSE 9V9 40 NNW PIR 40 N MBG
   30 ENE BIS 65 NNE DVL
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW CZZ RAL 25 NNW
   SBA SCK 45 NE OWY 10 SW OGD 45 S BPI CPR Y22 50 N MOT ...CONT... ERI
   AOO SHD BKW LAF OTM 15 NNE SZL 40 SSW UNO 45 SW MEM TUP 15 WSW BHM
   25 SSW MCN 45 WNW CHS 30 SW CRE
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW 63S EAT 35 SSE
   UIL
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM BIE 20 ESE GRI 35 SW
   EAR 50 ENE LAA 25 NNE DHT 40 NNE AMA 45 SW GAG 30 NW P28 20 WNW SLN
   BIE
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VLY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...
   
   ...NRN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST...
   A BIMODAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SLGT RISK AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. 
   
   THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY INTO THE
   UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL GRT LKS REGIONS.  ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VLY ARE LIKELY BEING MAINTAINED BY PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION
   REGIME ON NOSE OF A SWLY LLJ.  THESE STORMS HAVE REINFORCED A FRONT
   SITUATED ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER EWD INTO SRN WI.  THIS FRONT
   PROBABLY WILL NOT MOVE TOO FAR NWD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. 
   THE LLJ APPEARS TO BE RELOADING MORE TO THE WEST IN SRN MN
   ATTM...AND THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
   FROM SRN MN INTO CNTRL/NRN WI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ATTM...IT
   APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
   CAPPED.  RECENT RUC40 CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO...WITH
   TSTMS REINTENSIFYING DURING THE EVENING FROM SERN MN INTO CNTRL/SRN
   WI.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   SUPERCELLS...THOUGH WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL ENCOURAGE LINE
   SEGMENTS TO EVOLVE AND THEN MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/CNTRL
   GRT LKS OVERNIGHT.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
   FRONT FROM SRN MN INTO SWRN WI THIS EVENING. 
   
   ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER THE RED
   RVR VLY AND NWRN MN SEWD INTO THE UPPER GRT LKS REGION OVERNIGHT. 
   AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL DAKS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ACROSS WCNTRL MN HAS RECOVERED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEW
   POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S.  VSBL SATELLITE
   PICTURES SHOW A SHARPENING LINE OF CU DVLPG OVER SCNTRL MANITOBA
   ALONG A FRONT WITH CINH GRADUALLY WEAKENING PER 18 UTC SOUNDINGS
   OVER SRN MANITOBA.  TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND BACKBUILD ALONG THE
   FRONT INTO THE RED RVR VLY...PRIMARILY AFTER 21 UTC.  SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE EVOLVING INTO A FORWARD
   PROPAGATING SYSTEM WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE STORMS MAY
   MERGE WITH THE WI STORMS LATER TONIGHT.
   
   OTHER TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT ACROSS
   CNTRL/ERN SD AND IN THE BLACK HILLS AREA WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS
   AND HAIL. OVER THESE AREAS...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LESS THAN
   FARTHER NORTH...BUT THE INSTABILITY IS GREATER.
   
   ...CNTRL PLAINS...
   A FEW TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE SITUATED
   FROM NERN CO ACROSS NEB.  THESE TSTMS MAY POSE AN ISOLD DAMAGING
   WIND/HAIL THREAT...THOUGH LACK OF FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT
   THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION. 
   
   ...SRN PLAINS...
   NUMEROUS TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CNTRL TX...ON NRN EDGE OF AN
   INVERTED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NWD OUT OF THE UPPER LOW OVER NRN MX. 
   ANOTHER ENHANCED CU FIELD WITH DEVELOPING TSTMS APPEAR TO BE FORMING
   NEAR AND NW OF A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING NWWD THROUGH THE ARKLATEX. 
   ANY TSTM THAT FORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS MAY PRODUCE ISOLD LARGE
   HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
   
   ...SWRN STATES...
   TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE RIM
   AND SERN AZ.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ONTO THE LOWER DESERTS
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN ESELY MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME.  BOUNDARY LAYER
   IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AND ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...
   THERE WILL BE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
   
   ..RACY.. 08/25/2003
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0100Z