STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWI47 KWNS.
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNE GWO 20 NW PRX 30 NW SPS 35 WNW LTS 45 WSW GAG 50 N GAG
25 ESE ICT 20 SSW EVV 35 SSE EKN 20 NNE DAN 45 NW AND 30 NNE GWO.
THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE ALS 35 NNE LAR 10 N DGW 45 W CDR 30 WSW SNY 20 SSE LHX CAO
15 N TCC 15 N LVS 15 SE ALS.
GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MQT JVL
40 WNW DBQ 40 NNW MCW 40 SSE FAR 25 WNW JMS DIK 40 NNW REJ
30 NNE RAP 10 SSE MHN 15 SE MCK 40 W CNK 15 SW FLV 40 SW HUF
30 NNE PKB 10 NNE HLG 35 WSW ERI ...CONT... 20 W MFE 40 NW ALI
35 S AUS 25 SW TPL 30 SE ABI 45 NNW MAF CNM 55 SE ELP ...CONT...
70 SSW GBN 70 E PHX 70 S 4BL 50 W CAG 35 NNW BPI 85 NNE BOI
45 ESE BKE 30 WNW BNO 40 W RDM 30 N ONP.
...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MEAN TROUGH IN THE E AND RIDGING FROM
THE DESERT SW INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE...THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD EXTEND FROM A LOW OVER CNTRL QUEBEC SWD INTO
CNTRL VA AND THEN WWD ACROSS THE SRN OH VALLEY/TN VALLEY INTO OK/TX
PNHDL BY LATE AFTERNOON.
...SRN PLAINS EWD TO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A MOIST...LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS 65-75F/ WILL EXIST
ALONG AND S OF QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STRETCHED W-E ACROSS THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA. THIS MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH RELATIVELY
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING INITIALLY INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM KS AND
MO EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY WITH SOME DIURNAL WEAKENING OR
DISSIPATION EXPECTED DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BY AFTERNOON...
SUSTAINED LOW-LEVEL WAA...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND THE MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ANY
LINGERING CONVECTION ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM OK EWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATELY STRONG NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL
CREATE SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING
A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIABATIC HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON
MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM ERN WY/WRN NEB PNHDL SWD INTO NERN
NM. BOUNDARY-LAYER UPSLOPE FLOW AND STRONG HEATING ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS.
35-45KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL.
...ERN NC/ERN VA/MD/DE/NJ...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THE MEAN
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH POSITION WITH AN AREA OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
OVERSPREADING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH A FEW
STORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...IT APPEARS THAT
THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..MEAD.. 07/11/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
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