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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 22, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 22 16:33:52 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150522 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150522 1630Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221633

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1133 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NM AND ADJACENT
   PORTIONS OF WRN TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF NERN
   CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF
   CO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
   SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND A SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST COLORADO. 
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INCLUDING SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST
   TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN INITIAL MID-LEVEL VORT MAX NOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   CONTINUES NNEWD TOWARD/INTO THE NRN PLAINS...THE LARGER/MAIN WRN
   TROUGH WILL CONTINUE A SLOW ADVANCE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. 
   DOWNSTREAM...RIDGING CENTERED INVOF THE MS VALLEY WILL AMPLIFY WITH
   TIME...AS A SECOND TROUGH OVER THE NERN U.S./ERN CANADA GRADUALLY
   DEPARTS. 

   AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN W...WITH A LEE LOW EXPECTED TO RESIDE OVER ERN CO
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS ERN NM. 
   FARTHER E...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   STATES...WHILE A SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS
   THE NERN STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...FAR W TX AND NWD ACROSS ERN NM...
   DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST AIRMASS BACKED WNWWD TO FAR W
   TX/SERN NM WILL RESULT IN MODERATE DESTABILIZATION DURING THE
   AFTERNOON -- LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  WITH LOW-LEVEL SELYS BENEATH INCREASING
   WSWLYS AT MID LEVELS...DEGREE OF VEERING/SHEAR WILL FAVOR
   ROTATING/SUPERCELL EVOLUTION...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ALONG WITH POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.  DURING THE
   EVENING/OVERNIGHT...INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
   AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING WRN SYSTEM SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION
   OVER ERN NM WILL BE POSSIBLE...SPREADING WITH TIME INTO THE TX
   PANHANDLE AND S PLAINS REGION.  THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE
   LIMITED...INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING TROUGH
   SUGGESTS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL
   AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...NERN CO...
   CLEARING IS OCCURRING FROM S-N ACROSS CO ATTM...AS THE VORT MAX
   SHIFTS NWD/AWAY FROM THE AREA.  WHILE SHORT-WAVE RIDGING SHOULD
   SUPPRESS CONVECTION IN THE NEAR TERM...HEATING/DESTABILIZATION
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT --
   AIDED BY SELY UPSLOPE FLOW JUST N OF THE SURFACE LOW -- AS
   LARGER-SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. 
   WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SELYS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO SUBSTANTIAL VEERING
   WITH HEIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES WNWLY AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE
   OF ROTATING STORMS -- AND ATTENDANT RISKS FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO REMAIN EVIDENT INTO THIS EVENING.

   ..GOSS/ROGERS.. 05/22/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z

        
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