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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 20, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 20 05:07:58 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170920 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170920 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 200507

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1207 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2017

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM UPPER
   MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few strong storms are possible from northeastern Kansas
   northeastward to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this afternoon and
   evening.

   ...Synopsis and discussion...
   A potent shortwave trough will quickly exit the northern
   Plains/Upper MS Valley in a negatively tilted fashion with an
   occluded front moving from northern MN into western Ontario. To the
   south, a weak boundary will remain, extending from WI into eastern
   KS. To the east of this front, a moist and unstable air mass will
   exist with upper 60s dewpoints.

   Scattered storms are likely to develop during the afternoon along
   this front, especially over northern areas including WI, eastern IA,
   and the U.P. of MI where convergence is strongest. However, forcing
   for ascent will generally be weak as the primary shortwave trough
   continues away from the region. Capping will be a concern for much
   of the day, with only a narrow zone of storms expected near the
   front. Marginally severe hail and wind are most likely, and a
   brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled out given a moist boundary layer
   and modest low-level shear.

   ..Jewell.. 09/20/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: September 20, 2017
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