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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 3, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 3 19:52:39 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150303 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150303 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 031952

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

   VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHWEST STATES...AND ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED THIS OUTLOOK WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
   RATIONALE REMAINING VALID. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   APPEAR MOST PROBABLE OVER THE COLORADO VALLEY/FOUR CORNERS AREA THIS
   AFTERNOON. THUNDER PROBABILITIES APPEAR ONLY AROUND 10 PERCENT FROM
   THE WEST TEXAS TO OHIO VALLEY CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH SPORADIC
   LIGHTNING ACTIVITY POSSIBLE.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/03/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST TUE MAR 03 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
   WED AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE E PACIFIC...AND FLAT RIDGE
   REMAINS STNRY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/WRN ATLANTIC. COLD FRONT
   ATTENDANT TO NRN STREAM IMPULSE NOW OVER IA WILL CONTINUE SE INTO
   THE SRN PLNS...THE OZARKS...AND THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS BY THE END OF
   THE PERIOD. A WEAKER FRONT WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS NM INTO THE
   SRN HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH SRN STREAM TROUGH
   NOW APPROACHING NRN BAJA CA.  

   ...LWR CO VLY TO FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTN...
   LARGELY UNIMPEDED SFC HEATING...TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...COOL AIR
   ALOFT...AND POCKETS OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EWD-MOVING SRN STREAM
   TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER PARTS OF
   AZ...UT...CO...NM...AND SRN NV. A FEW OF THESE COULD YIELD SMALL
   HAIL. MODEST CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR AND LIMIT BUOYANCY /SBCAPE GENERALLY
   AOB 250 J PER KG/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH/LONGEVITY.

   ...W TX/SE NM LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY WED...
   WEAK BUOYANCY WILL DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS THE SRN HI PLNS LATER
   TODAY/TNGT...ON WRN FRINGE OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE RETURN BENEATH WARM
   CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SRN STREAM TROUGH. LOW- TO
   MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS AND
   POSITIVE TILT OF TROUGH. BUT COMBINATION OF HEIGHT FALLS WITH
   INCREASING MOISTURE MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF EMBEDDED...
   NEAR SFC-BASED CONVECTION TO YIELD OCCASIONAL THUNDER...ESPECIALLY
   LATER IN THE PERIOD. 

   ...ARKLATEX/OZARKS TO OH VLY TNGT/EARLY WED...
   850 MB WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FOCUSED WITH TIME FROM THE ARKLATEX NEWD THROUGH THE
   OZARKS INTO THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS AS NRN STREAM COLD FRONT
   ENCOUNTERS EXISTING ELEVATED CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOIST AXIS MARKING THE
   NW FRINGE OF GULF/WRN ATLANTIC RIDGE. LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK
   AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT NEUTRAL AT BEST /OUTSIDE WAA/.
   BUT COMBINATION OF TIGHTENING FRONTAL CIRCULATION WITH PW
   APPROACHING 1.50 IN MAY SUPPORT SUFFICIENT DEEPENING OF SCTD
   ELEVATED CONVECTION TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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