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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 27, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 27 00:49:33 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170727 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170727 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 270049

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0749 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

   Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with isolated marginally severe wind gusts
   are possible early this evening in parts of the central states and
   Intermountain West.

   ...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
   Latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough from the
   upper Mississippi Valley extending southwestward into the central
   Plains.  A plume of mid-level moisture is evident from near the
   trough southeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley. At the
   surface, a cold front is located from Upper Michigan southwestward
   into Iowa with a moist airmass in place ahead of the front. Surface
   dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F along with temperatures in the
   80s F are contributing to a pocket of moderate instability from
   eastern Kansas into central Illinois where the RAP is estimating
   MLCAPE from 2000 to 3000 J/kg. This combined with 0-6 km shear in
   the 25 to 30 kt range according to regional WSR-88D VWPs could be
   enough for a few marginally severe wind gusts early this evening.

   ...Southern and Central High Plains...
   An upper-level ridge is evident on water vapor imagery over the
   southern Rockies with a subtle shortwave trough moving into the
   central High Plains to the north of the ridge. At the surface, a
   cold front is located from northeastern New Mexico extending
   northeastward into central Kansas. A moist airmass with surface
   dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s F, is in place from southeast
   Colorado southeastward into the Texas Panhandle. This combined with
   surface temperatures mostly in the 90s F is contributing to a narrow
   corridor of instability from western Kansas southwestward into
   eastern New Mexico where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The
   instability combined with steep low-level lapse rates from 8.0 to
   9.0 C/km (according to RAP data), will be favorable for a few strong
   wind gusts early this evening.

   ...Intermountain West...
   Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over California with a
   plume of dry air extending into the base of the trough.  A pocket of
   mid-level moisture is located on the eastern side of the trough
   across Nevada, Oregon and Idaho where scattered thunderstorms are
   ongoing. According to the RAP, the environment is characterized by
   0-6 km shear of 20 to 30 kt and steep low-level lapse rates
   exceeding 8.0 C/km. This may be enough for a few marginally severe
   wind gusts this evening.

   ..Broyles.. 07/27/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 27, 2017
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