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    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 22, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 22 12:57:39 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140822 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140822 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 221257

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

   VALID 221300Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLNS AND CNTRL PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
   THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
   MAY OCCUR. OTHER STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE EXPECTED OVER
   PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS SEASONABLY STRONG PAC NW
   TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO THE NRN GRT BASIN AND RIDGE EDGES N ACROSS
   THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. AS THIS OCCURS...AZ LOW/TROUGH SHOULD
   SHEAR NNE ACROSS NM/CO TODAY AND ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS
   TNGT...WHILE A SERIES OF LESSER DISTURBANCES TRACK SEWD ACROSS THE
   UPR OH VLY/MID ATLANTIC STATES ON ERN FLANK OF RIDGE.

   AT THE SFC...EXISTING LEE TROUGH/LOW NOW CENTERED OVER SW KS SHOULD
   ELONGATE NNW ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS THOUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
   REMAIN FAIRLY DIFFUSE/MULTI-CENTERED. IN THE EAST...WEAK NW-SE FRONT
   WILL SETTLE SLOWLY S ACROSS THE MID-OH VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS/NC.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLNS INTO CNTRL PLNS TODAY/TNGT...
   MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS
   TODAY...AHEAD OF EJECTING SW U.S. UPR TROUGH...WITH A CORRIDOR OF
   30-40KT 500MB SSW FLOW EXPECTED OVER ERN CO/WRN KS BY EVE...AND INTO
   WRN/CNTRL NEB EARLY SAT. STRENGTHENING FLOW AND ASCENT SHOULD
   SUPPORT SUSTAINED...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION
   BEGINNING THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

   WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN MODEST...BUOYANCY WILL BE
   ENHANCED BY COMPARATIVELY MOIST LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
   NE CO...NW KS AND WRN NEB AS MOISTURE SPREADS WWD N OF ELONGATING
   SFC LOW. WITH SBCAPE OF 3000-4000 J/KG...INITIAL HIGH-BASED STORMS
   JUST E OF THE FRONT RANGE AND/OR ALONG ERN CO N-S LEE TROUGH/WIND
   SHIFT COULD MOVE DEVELOP NNEWD INTO INCREASINGLY MOIST/ BUOYANT AIR
   OVER NE CO/SW NEB/NW KS BY BY LATE IN THE DAY. 30+ KT SSWLY DEEP
   SHEAR COULD SUPPORT MID-LVL ROTATION/SUPERCELLS...AND THESE COULD
   YIELD NOT ONLY SVR WIND/HAIL...BUT ALSO TORNADOES GIVEN SFC-3KM SRH
   OF 200 M2/S2.

   THE STORMS LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE NIGHT NEWD
   ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL NEB...AS LLJ INCREASES WITH THE CONTINUED NNE
   ADVANCE OF UPR TROUGH. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A MORE
   LIMITED RISK FOR SVR WIND/HAIL AND ISOLD TORNADOES.

   ...NC/FAR SRN VA/FAR NRN SC THIS AFTN...
   MORNING STLT DATA SUGGEST THAT AT LEAST MODERATE HEATING WILL OCCUR
   OVER THE NC AREA TODAY...BENEATH 30 KT NWLY 700-500 MB FLOW. LARGE-
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE WEAK...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT
   A DISTURBANCE NOW IN WV/ERN KY WILL MOVE ACROSS REGION LATER TODAY.
   GIVEN HIGH PWS /AROUND 2 INCHES/...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW S TO
   SE-MOVING CLUSTERS OF AFTN/EVE STORMS ALONG DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR LEE
   TROUGH. THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DMGG WIND.

   ...OH VLY THIS AFTN...
   CLOUDS AND LOW-LVL OUTFLOW FROM OVERNIGHT MCSS WILL LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION AND SVR WEATHER CHANCES IN CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED NWLY
   MID-LVL FLOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND MID/LWR OH VLY. IN ADDITION...WITH
   AMPLIFICATION OF UPR RIDGE...MODEST HEIGHT RISES WILL PREVAIL OVER
   THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS...SFC HEATING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ALONG
   SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT COULD YIELD A FEW INSTANCES OF
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND GIVEN HIGH /AOA 2 IN/ PW.

   ...NRN GRT BASIN/NRN RCKYS THIS AFTN/EVE...
   FALL-LIKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB MINUS 12C AT
   500 MB/ WILL MOVE SE INTO ID/NRN NV TODAY AND INTO WRN WY TNGT.
   TSTMS SHOULD DIURNALLY STRENGTHEN IN CONFLUENT SW-SSWLY 700 FLOW
   INVOF ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT BENEATH BACKING BUT DIFLUENT FLOW
   ALOFT....ESPECIALLY FROM NRN UT THROUGH ERN ID INTO SW MT/WRN WY.
   CLOUDS WILL LIMIT LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION...BUT SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
   SHOULD DEVELOP FOR CLUSTERS/BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A
   FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN 30-40 KT SWLY CLOUD-LYR SHEAR. ISOLD SVR
   WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR...MAINLY WITH ANY ROTATING/MORE SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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