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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 29, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 29 12:28:30 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150729 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150729 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 291228

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0728 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

   VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI...OH
   VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
   PARTS OF THE MIDWEST SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES
   THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

   ...OH VALLEY/LOWER MI...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY AS
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BY
   AFTERNOON FROM THE MID MS VALLEY AND OH VALLEY NWD INTO LOWER MI.
   SFC DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FORM THE UPPER 70S F ACROSS THE LOWER OH
   VALLEY TO NEAR 70 F IN LOWER MI WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
   DURING THE DAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO INITIATE ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE 80S F AND
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
   FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY TO MID
   AFTERNOON WITH SOME CONVECTION PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM DETROIT SWD TO CINCINNATI SHOW SBCAPE
   FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND 25 TO
   30 KT OF WLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL WIND-DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS. 

   ...TN VALLEY/CNTRL GULF COAST STATES...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND
   OZARKS TODAY. EAST OF THE RIDGE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY
   WILL DEVELOP ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM MS AND AL
   NWD INTO TN. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THE
   REGION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP SPORADICALLY ALONG
   ZONES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHERE THE STRONGEST HEATING OCCURS.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF MAXIMUM FORECAST
   INSTABILITY FROM MOBILE AL TO TUPELO MS SHOW SBCAPE FROM 2500 TO
   3000 J/KG WITH 25 TO 30 KT OF NLY FLOW BETWEEN 700 AND 500 MB. THIS
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT WITH SWD-MOVING STORM
   CLUSTERS NEAR PEAK HEATING.

   ..BROYLES/COOK.. 07/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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Page last modified: July 29, 2015
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