Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 28, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Mar 28 12:54:16 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170328 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170328 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 281254

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0754 AM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

   Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST TX AND
   FAR SOUTHWEST OK...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL OK TO
   THE EDWARDS PLATEAU...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OK/TX...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS VA/NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Numerous severe storms are expected across the southern Great
   Plains, mainly after 2 pm CDT into tonight. Very large hail,
   tornadoes, and damaging winds will be possible.

   ...Synopsis...
   Vigorous shortwave trough over eastern AZ will shift east and reach
   the southern High Plains by early Wednesday. Surface cyclone over
   the Permian Basin will move northeast into northwest TX and become
   quasi-stationary. By late afternoon, a bulging dryline will sharpen
   to the south of this cyclone. A Pacific cold front will overtake the
   dryline in west Texas this evening and sweep east into central Texas
   overnight. A warm front will advance across northern TX and should
   arc from the cyclone across the Red River into eastern OK by 00Z. 

   ...Southern Great Plains...
   Rich gulf moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios to 14 g/kg
   per 12Z Del Rio, Corpus Christi, and Lake Charles RAOBs has become
   prevalent in the broadening warm sector over central/south TX. While
   diurnal mixing may yield pockets of lower dew points over
   central/east TX, a plume of lower to middle 60s surface dew points
   will be sustained along the dryline and warm front. Beneath a stout
   EML with very steep lapse rates to 9 degree C/km from 700-500 mb per
   12Z Del Rio RAOB, moderate to large buoyancy is expected ahead of
   the dryline. MLCAPE should reach 1500-3000 J/kg across the Edwards
   Plateau and Big Country. The leading edge of 50-kt 500-mb
   south-southwesterlies will spread east over this instability axis by
   late afternoon, yielding an environment favorable for supercells.

   While elevated storms will increase over the Texas Panhandle through
   midday, surface-based storms should develop towards mid-afternoon
   near the surface cyclone. Scattered storms will form farther south
   along the dryline late afternoon, with WAA-driven storms possible
   farther east over north-central TX. Initially discrete supercell
   mode should favor very large hail and localized severe wind gusts.
   Relatively high confidence in the coverage and location of storms
   warrants an upgrade to a hail-driven moderate risk from the Big
   Country into southwest OK. A few tornadic storms appear probable in
   this similar corridor. However, the temporal overlap of discrete
   cells with enlarging hodographs may be relatively short in the open
   warm sector. Low-level hodographs will be quite enlarged along the
   warm front, but should be coincident with modest low-level lapse
   rates and predominant cluster to linear mode. As such, an upgrade to
   15 percent tornado probabilities does not appeared warranted this
   outlook. 

   As storms mature, upscale growth into lines with embedded bowing
   segments is expected due to both the strong large-scale ascent and
   meridional flow aloft generally paralleling the dryline. These
   linear bands should accelerate northeast into southern/central
   Oklahoma during the evening, with attendant risks for damaging
   winds, hail, and a couple tornadoes. 

   Farther south over the Edwards Plateau, initially isolated to widely
   scattered late afternoon/early evening storms should become
   widespread in coverage during mid-late evening as the Pacific front
   merges with the dryline. This should result in a predominant risk of
   large hail transitioning quickly to strong to severe wind gusts. An
   extensive squall line will likely evolve east overnight with an
   isolated severe risk spreading into central TX. 

   ...VA/NC...
   A dampening shortwave impulse over WV will shift off the VA/NC coast
   by mid-evening. Ongoing showers and isolated storms will subdue
   destabilization early in the diurnal heating cycle. However, by late
   afternoon, widely scattered storms should develop ahead of the
   impulse. Increased veering of the wind profile with height should
   foster mainly discrete cells, some of which should weakly rotate.
   Isolated severe hail and damaging wind appear possible.

   ..Grams/Dial.. 03/28/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 28, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities