SPC AC 021239
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0739 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
   
   VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLNS TO THE UPR
   GRT LKS...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AMPLIFYING NRN PLNS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E TO THE
   UPR GRT LKS AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
   UPSTREAM RIDGE PROGRESSES E TO THE RCKYS.  STRONG COLD FRONT
   ATTENDANT TO THE PLNS TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP SE ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN
   PLNS AND MUCH OF THE MS VLY.  BY 00Z...THE BOUNDARY SHOULD EXTEND
   FROM MQT THROUGH LK MI...PIA...SGF...OKC...CDS... AND ROW.  BY THE
   END OF PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPR OH VLY THROUGH
   LWR MS VLY TO S TX...WITH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY ESPECIALLY IN THE SRN
   PLNS LIKELY SHUNTED FARTHER S/SE BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW. 
   ELSEWHERE...MID/LATE AFTN DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM FRONTAL
   INTERSECTION OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK...SSW INTO THE
   PERMIAN BASIN.
   
   ...SRN PLNS TO UPR GRT LKS...
   TSTM BAND NOW OVER N CNTRL WI HAS BEEN SUPPORTED DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT BY LEAD MID LVL VORT ASSOCIATED WITH AMPLIFYING LARGER
   SCALE TROUGH.  DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN
   ELEVATED AS THE BAND CONTINUES EWD AHEAD OF THE VORT...AND DESPITE
   FACT THAT AVAILABLE CAPE WILL REMAIN WEAK...EMBEDDED SUSTAINED
   UPDRAFTS AND LOW AMPLITUDE BOWS MAY YIELD ISOLD INSTANCES OF STRONG
   WINDS/HAIL THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
   
   IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING/LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION LATER
   TODAY...EXPECT SCTD TO NUMEROUS AFTN TSTMS FCST TO FORM INVOF COLD
   FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM WI SW ACROSS MO INTO SE
   KS AND OK.  MORE ISOLD ACTIVITY MAY APPEAR WSW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF
   THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW TX NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION.  THE
   PREDOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY BECOME
   QUASI-LINEAR...ALTHOUGH SOME DISCRETE TSTMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY-ON.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   SHOULD BE DMGG WIND...WITH ISOLD TO WIDELY SCTD SVR HAIL ALSO
   POSSIBLE...MAINLY WITH ANY MORE DISCRETE STORMS.
   
   THE STRONGEST MID/UPR LVL WINDS AND SHEAR WILL EXIST FROM THE MID MS
   VLY NEWD...WHERE 40-50 KT 500 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED.  SFC HEATING AND
   DEW POINTS UPR 60S TO 70S F SHOULD OFFSET MODEST MID LVL LAPSE TO
   YIELD MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  FARTHER SW...COMBINATION OF GREATER
   CAPE AND STEEPER LOW LVL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT
   INTO A SIZABLE FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS BY LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE IN FAR
   SRN KS...OK...AND NW TX.  DESPITE WEAKER DEEP FLOW/SHEAR... THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS GIVEN
   DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY AND AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.  ANY
   CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT DOES FORM SHOULD MOVE MAINLY SSEWD...WITH
   WSWWD PROPAGATION SUPPORTING BACK-BUILDING/REGENERATIVE DEVELOPMENT
   FOR AWHILE INTO W TX.
   
   ...CENTRAL/NRN MN THIS AFTN...
   WIDELY SCTD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPOTS OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   THIS AFTN AS LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS BENEATH CORE OF
   AMPLIFYING UPR TROUGH.  COLD MID LVL TEMPERATURES /-18 TO -20 C AT
   500 MB/...RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...AND DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL
   CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD OFFSET LOW LVL CAA TO SUPPORT A FEW BANDS/ARCS
   OF LOW-TOPPED MULTICELLS POSING A THREAT FOR HAIL.  ANY SVR THREAT
   SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK AS MID LVL COOLING/ASCENT MOVE BEYOND
   REGION OF GREATEST AFTN DESTABILIZATION.
   
   ...NRN NY/NRN NEW ENG THIS AFTN...
   A WEAK W-E FRONT WILL SETTLE SLOWLY S INTO FAR NRN NY AND NRN NEW
   ENGLAND TODAY...BEFORE BECOMING QSTNRY BY EVE.  SFC HEATING AND
   CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT A FEW CLUSTERS OF AFTN/EVE STORMS FROM SERN
   ONT EWD ACROSS THE AREA N OF ADIRONDACKS TO NRN ME.  MOISTURE WILL
   BE APPRECIABLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE BORDER...AND
   MODERATE WLY FLOW WILL EXIST AT MID LVLS.  HOWEVER...WEAK MID LVL
   LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SUGGEST THAT
   ANY SVR THREAT WILL REMAIN BRIEF/ISOLD.
   
   ...NC OUTER BANKS/TIDEWATER REGION...
   CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL STILL EXPECTED TO PASS E OF THE NC OUTER
   BANKS THIS PERIOD...EFFECTIVELY KEEPING SECTOR MOST LIKELY TO
   SUPPORT EMBEDDED UPDRAFTS WITH LOW LVL ROTATION OFFSHORE.  SEE NHC
   ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCSTS FOR EARL.
   
   ..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 09/02/2010
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z