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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 25, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 25 19:43:18 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140725 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140725 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251943

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0243 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
   INTO TONIGHT WITH A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ACROSS THE
   MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.  OTHER ISOLATED STRONG
   WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTH CENTRAL
   TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA.

   NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

   ..BROYLES.. 07/25/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

   A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
   STATES...WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. 
   WHILE NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
   TODAY...A FEW AREAS WILL HAVE SOME RISK OF LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE
   WEATHER.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES...
   A LARGE MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF
   IL/MO.  WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIMIT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION OVER A GREAT DEAL OF IL/WI TODAY. 
   HOWEVER...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES MAY
   RESULT IN A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   DECAYING MCS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF MO/IA.  PRESENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS RISK WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED.

   OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF MN AND
   NORTHERN WI AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS THE REGION. 
   ONCE AGAIN...THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS LOW AT THIS
   TIME.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON OVER
   THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY.  THESE
   STORMS WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CO/WY AND
   EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN KS THIS EVENING.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAK...ESPECIALLY OVER CO/KS.  BUT THE COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT
   CAPE AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER /INVERTED-V PROFILES/ WILL
   RESULT IN SOME RISK OF GUSTY WINDS NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS AGAIN
   TODAY.  AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL IS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST WY/FAR
   NORTHERN CO WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR IS A LITTLE STRONGER.

   ...AZ...
   LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE MODERATELY HIGH TODAY WITH THE 12Z
   TUS RAOB SHOWING NEARLY 1.50 INCHES OF PWAT AND CURRENT YUM SURFACE
   DEWPOINTS OVER 70F.  FULL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
   WELL OVER 100F IN MOST AREAS AND MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. 
   STEERING FLOW IS WEAK...BUT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SCATTERED
   SLOW-MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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