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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 25, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 25 12:48:44 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160725 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160725 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 251248

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN NEW ENGLAND TO OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN ND/SERN MT AND CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TODAY THROUGH
   MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SHOULD
   DAMPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH EARLY
   TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SHIFT EAST FROM THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...WITH TRAILING PORTION WEAKENING OVER
   THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT. IN THE WEST...A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL
   REMAIN ANCHORED IN THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. WHILE A MINOR SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN GRADUALLY SHIFTS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...NORTHEAST...
   STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND
   WESTERN NY WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   COLD FRONT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH HOW THIS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE
   THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME CAMS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY DECAYS WHILE
   OTHERS PROPAGATE ITS OUTFLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT MAINTAINED. GIVEN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ALREADY
   OVERSPREADING THE WARM SECTOR AND LOW-LEVEL WAA LIKELY
   PERSISTING...THE LATTER SCENARIO APPEARS MORE PLAUSIBLE. SHOULD THIS
   OCCUR...CONVECTION MAY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION FROM PARTS OF PA/NJ ON
   NORTH PRIOR TO PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. HOWEVER...WITH UPPER 60S TO
   LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF PA/NJ
   AND FAR SOUTHEAST NY...AND POCKETS OF ROBUST DIABATIC HEATING LIKELY
   TO OCCUR PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...A RISK FOR SCATTERED
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE HUDSON VALLEY WITH
   LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS. 

   ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTH ALONG A LEE TROUGH NEAR
   THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. A COMPARATIVELY WARMER BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CONSISTING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR
   WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND A RISK FOR
   SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE MD/DC/DE REGION AROUND LATE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SOUTHERN ND TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   A WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE LEE OF THE BIG
   HORN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH AND
   A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN ND. LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE
   SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY...YIELDING UPSLOPE INTO THE BLACK HILLS. WHILE
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE TEMPERED GIVEN A COLD FRONT
   HAVING REACHED OK...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT WEAK TO
   MODERATE BUOYANCY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AS WELL AS THE SURFACE TROUGH IN SOUTHERN
   ND. MODEST MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND RISKS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND.

   ..GRAMS/BROYLES.. 07/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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