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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 20, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 20 00:49:11 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140920 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140920 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 200049

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

   VALID 200100Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   EXTREME NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FROM NORTHEAST
   COLORADO...NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LARGE HAIL AND
   GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE OVER SERN
   MB LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG NERN PLUME OF STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED SWD INTO NWRN MN WHERE
   SRN-MOST STORM HAS EXHIBITED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AND EVEN
   PRODUCED LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH A TORNADO.  WHILE THIS LONE SUPERCELL
   LIKELY REMAINS SEVERE...FURTHER MOVEMENT DOWNSTREAM WILL PROVE
   DETRIMENTAL AS AIRMASS ACROSS THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION IS
   SUBSTANTIALLY MORE STABLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. 
   BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS CAPPED AT INL THIS EVENING AND MU PARCELS ARE
   NEAR 900MB.  FOR THIS REASON ONGOING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
   WEAKEN AS INFLOW LAYER BECOMES INCREASINGLY ELEVATED IN NATURE.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS TO SRN MN...

   SFC-BASED CU FIELD ALONG THE FRONT OVER NRN NEB APPEARS TO BE
   WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  HOWEVER...AGITATED ACCAS
   APPEARS TO BE INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS SRN MN/SERN SD. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DEEPEN AND TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE
   BENEATH VEERED LLJ.  ISOLATED HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS ACROSS THIS REGION.

   WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS NERN CO APPEARS TO BE AIDING SCT STRONG
   CONVECTION WITHIN STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.  00Z SOUNDING AT DNR
   EXHIBITS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH 3KM AND SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD SEWD WITH SOME INTENSITY FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..DARROW.. 09/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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