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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jan 22, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 22 06:00:47 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170122 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170122 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)

The SPC is forecasting ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Gulf Coast States overnight....   Please read the latest public statement about this event.  View What is a Watch? clip.

Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220600

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 AM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF SOUTH CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTH GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA...

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PART
   OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
   PART OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAN
   FRANCISCO BAY AREA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms accompanied by a risk for damaging winds, large
   hail and tornadoes (a few of which could be strong) are expected
   across parts of the Southeast today into this evening. A more
   marginal threat for a few severe storms with damaging wind gusts is
   expected around the San Francisco Bay area into nearby portions of
   the Sacramento and San Joaquin Valleys.

   ...Southeast States...

   Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing generally along and north of
   warm front from northern AL through northern and central GA and SC.
   Initial low-level jet associated with lead impulse will continue
   through the eastern Carolinas and offshore early in the day. Early
   storms along the warm front should continue advancing north. By mid
   day this front should extend from a surface low in south central AL
   through south-central and southeast GA and will move farther north
   during the afternoon. Rich boundary-layer moisture resides along the
   Gulf Coast region with dewpoints in the upper 60s to around 70F. An
   intense 60+ kt secondary low-level jet is forecast to develop by
   late morning into afternoon from northern FL into southern GA within
   exit region of a progressive upper jet. The coupled jet structure
   will contribute to very large low-level hodographs and strong deep
   shear in vicinity of warm front as well as in warm sector. 

   Initial severe threat will probably evolve along and just ahead of
   the cold front across southern Alabama into the FL Panhandle as
   forcing for ascent within the upper jet exit region interacts with
   warm sector. Supercells and bowing segments with large hail and
   damaging wind will be the initial primary threats, but a few
   tornadoes will also be possible. The environment will become
   increasingly supportive of supercells with low-level mesocyclones
   and tornadoes as the secondary low-level jet strengthens and the
   boundary layer destabilizes from southeast AL into south central and
   southern GA as well as northern FL. Additional storms will likely
   develop along the eastward-advancing cold front including potential
   for supercells with bowing segments capable of large hail, a few
   tornadoes and damaging wind.

   Potential complicating factor with northward extent into the
   Carolinas and GA is impact of ongoing convection on destabilization
   potential, but will maintain at least an enhanced due the expected
   northward progression of the warm front. Additional storms will
   likely develop along the cold front farther south across the FL
   Peninsula during the afternoon and evening where vertical wind
   profiles will support organized severe storms.

   ...San Francisco Bay area...

   Exit region of an intense (110-130 kt) westerly 500 mb jet streak
   will spread southward across the region later today. Cooling aloft
   should contribute to at least weak destabilization in the moist
   post-frontal onshore flow regime. Strong deep shear will be in
   place, and model guidance suggests a forced low-topped convective
   band could spread inland across the San Francisco Bay area,
   accompanied by the risk for strong wind gusts.  Other, more
   discrete, convective cells could form ahead of this band, across
   nearby portions of the interior valleys, perhaps with some risk for
   a brief/weak tornado.

   ..Dial/Picca.. 01/22/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: January 22, 2017
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