Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 28 05:57:09 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140828 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140828 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 280557

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TODAY ALONG A
   STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...SOUTHWARD INTO THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  ADDITIONAL...BUT MORE WIDELY
   SCATTERED...STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...FROM THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEYS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO
   CANADA AND THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. THROUGH THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD...WITH A NUMBER OF EMBEDDED...PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSES.  AS ONE OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   CANADIAN MARITIMES AND NEW ENGLAND TODAY...AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
   FRONTAL ZONE MAY ADVANCE SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  FARTHER WEST...THE FRONT IS
   EXPECTED TO STALL OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO AND MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI/MISSOURI VALLEYS...BEFORE BEGINNING TO ADVANCE OR
   REDEVELOP EAST NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING
   SLOWLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  

   THIS LATTER FEATURE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT
   HIGH LEVELS WESTERLIES...GENERALLY ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
   SUBTROPICAL RIDGING.  ASSOCIATED TROUGHING AT LOWER/MID LEVELS IS
   FORECAST TO SHIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...BETWEEN
   MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND NEAR
   THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  BUT IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK IMPULSE
   EMERGING FROM IT WILL MIGRATE NORTHEAST OF THE MID MISSOURI
   VALLEY...TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST.  AS IT DOES...MODELS SUGGEST THAT
   SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW FIELDS AHEAD OF THE LARGER
   SCALE TROUGHING...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE VICINITY OF
   THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY WEAK.

   ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION NOW FORMING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS
   EXPECTED TO SLOW THE NORTHEASTWARD RETREAT OF THE STALLING FRONTAL
   ZONE OVER THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY.  IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
   QUESTION THAT A STRONGER CLUSTER OF STORMS COULD FORM ON THE
   SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE DAY.  IF THIS
   OCCURS...THERE COULD BE SOME RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS/HAIL ACROSS PARTS
   OF SOUTHERN IOWA...AND PERHAPS PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO
   ILLINOIS...BEFORE THE SUPPORT PROVIDED BY THE MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
   MIGRATING NORTH OF THE FRONT...TOWARD THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...DIMINISHES.

   LATER IN THE DAY...A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE
   PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH...TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT...FROM EASTERN
   NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...SEEMS LIKELY TO BECOME THE PRIMARY
   FOCUS FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS WILL BE AIDED BY
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGHING...IN THE
   PRESENCE OF AT LEAST MODERATE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG.  LOCALLY SEVERE WIND OR HAIL MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
   THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED
   TO BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   THE WEAK NATURE OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS/SHEAR.

   ...SRN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO LWR OH/MID MS VALLEYS...
   DEEP LAYER FLOW AND SHEAR ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE WEAK...WITH MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT CURRENTLY UNCLEAR.  HOWEVER...MOISTURE CONTENT ALONG AND
   SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAINS SEASONABLY HIGH...AND DESTABILIZATION
   PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY WHICH MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
   GUSTS.

   ..KERR/HART.. 08/28/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 28, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities