SPC AC 170521
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 AM CDT THU MAY 17 2012
   
   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS SUGGEST THAT SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGGING WITHIN A COUPLE OF
   DISTINCT BRANCHES OF STRONGER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST DURING THIS FORECAST
   PERIOD.  AT THE SAME TIME...THOUGH...BROAD UPPER TROUGHING IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES AND GULF OF
   MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH AN EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL
   CIRCULATION SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM THE EASTERN GULF STATES INTO THE
   VICINITY OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST.  THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
   PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INLAND RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE OFF
   THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND...ASIDE FROM SOME INCREASE IN
   SURFACE DEW POINTS ASSOCIATED WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...MOISTURE
   LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.  STEEP LAPSE RATES...OROGRAPHIC AND
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION COULD STILL SUPPORT
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
   BASIN...NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  BUT... HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
   APPEAR CONFINED TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTH
   ATLANTIC COAST STATES...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
   
   ...SOUTHEAST...
   MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG MID/
   HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.  WHILE
   LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
   COULD ENHANCE STORMS...MAINLY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BECOMES
   STRONG ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
   HOWEVER...GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCLEAR CONCERNING SURFACE FEATURES AND
   POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AND IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT
   SUFFICIENT INSOLATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT SIGNIFICANT BOUNDARY
   LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
   
   OTHERWISE...GIVEN CONTINUING WEAK MID-LEVEL INHIBITION AND LINGERING
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY APPEARS LIKELY
   TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND
   MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.  VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT LOCALIZED POCKETS OF MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION MAY BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF A COUPLE OF STORMS WITH
   SOME MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..KERR/ROGERS.. 05/17/2012
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z