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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 29, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 29 05:56:03 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150329 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150329 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290556

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
   EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN
   APPALACHIANS.  ADDITIONAL ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO.
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL
   PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WHILE AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH AMPLIFIES SEWD FROM MANITOBA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH
   VALLEY.  PRIMARY SYNOPTIC LOW SHOULD REMAIN IN CANADA WITH THE
   ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ADVANCING EWD AND SWD REACHING THE APPALACHIANS
   TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY OVER
   TX.

   ...NRN TX/SERN OK TO PART OF THE TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS...
   THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION IS
   EXPECTED TO OCCUR AFTER SUNSET.  DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF
   500-1000 J/KG FORECAST ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN TX INTO SERN OK THIS
   AFTERNOON...NEUTRAL TO WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT RISES AND THE PRESENCE OF
   A CAP /ERN EXTENT OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER/ SHOULD PRECLUDE THE
   OCCURRENCE OF DAYTIME SURFACE-BASED TSTMS.  

   ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
   EVENING/NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD INTO AR AND THE TN
   VALLEY.  THIS COMBINED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT
   GIVEN 1/WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDANT TO THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
   GREAT LAKES SYSTEM AND 2/WITHIN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN
   ACCOMPANYING WLY 500-MB JET SHOULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.  DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
   AROUND 500 J PER KG/ WITH WWD EXTENT INTO NORTH-CENTRAL AND NERN TX
   AND SERN OK...EVEN WEAKER DEEP-LAYER FORCING WILL RESULT IN MORE
   ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE TONIGHT.  STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 25-35 KT SUGGEST SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.

   ...SRN ROCKIES...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN NM
   AND SRN CO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AMIDST SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/MARGINAL INSTABILITY.

   ..PETERS/LEITMAN.. 03/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 29, 2015
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