SPC AC 190057

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0757 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

   VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST ID AND
   NORTHWEST MT....

   ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   A STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ALONG THE SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IS
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH OF ONE OR MORE MCS/S YET THIS
   EVENING...WITH ONE AFFECTING THE OK/TX PANHANDLES...AND A SECOND ONE
   ACROSS ERN CO/WRN KS.  A POTENTIAL THIRD MCS MAY DEVELOP INTO WRN
   NEB.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...NE ID/NW MT...
   THIS OUTLOOK WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION.
   ALTHOUGH PARTS OF THIS AREA HAVE BEEN STABILIZED BY ONGOING
   CONVECTION...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT AS THE PACIFIC
   NORTHWEST THROUGH MOVES INLAND SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER STRONG
   UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM DETAILS...REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE
   DISCUSSION 1125.  

   ...LOWER OH VALLEY...
   A CONVECTIVE LINE WILL CONTINUE MOVING SWD INTO KY AND WEAKEN IN
   INTENSITY AS THIS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. 
   MEANWHILE...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF
   THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS SERN IL/SWRN IND...ATTENDANT TO STRONGER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS ESEWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY. WEAK INSTABILITY/SHEAR VALUES WILL FURTHER LIMIT THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT THIS EVENING.

   ...CAROLINAS SWWD TO SRN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
   THIS EVENING...WHILE ASCENT ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS
   TROUGH SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL TSTMS INVOF A NE-SW ORIENTED FRONT
   ADVANCING EWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL/ERN CAROLINAS.  RESIDUAL POCKETS
   OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FULL EXTENT OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA COULD
   SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING.  THE
   GREATEST THREAT AREA SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS ERN NC...AS THIS REGION
   WILL BE CLOSER TO STRONGER ASCENT ALOFT AND 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR.

   ..PETERS.. 06/19/2013

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z