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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 24, 2014 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 24 12:53:37 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141124 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141124 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 241253

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0653 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING. OVER THE
   SOUTHEAST...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A LONG-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL
   SHORTEN IN WAVELENGTH AND AMPLIFY DUE IN PART TO THE EWD DEVELOPMENT
   OF AN UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS LARGE-SCALE
   PATTERN...A SIGNIFICANT /100-120 KT/ JET STREAK AT 500 MB WILL
   DEVELOP FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NERN U.S. IN TANDEM WITH A
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ON ITS HEELS...PHASING OF SEPARATE
   VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL OCCUR OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO LOWER RIO
   GRANDE VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO LOWERING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
   CNTRL AND SRN TX.

   AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE U.P. OF MI WILL DEVELOP
   NEWD THROUGH WRN INTO NRN QUEBEC WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT SURGES
   EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE SWRN EXTENSION
   OF THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE MORE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST
   STATES TOWARD THE SERN ATLANTIC COAST.  

   ...NERN GULF COAST TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT...

   A SW-NE-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS HAS EVOLVED OVERNIGHT FROM THE CNTRL
   FL PNHDL INTO SWRN GA ALONG AN APPARENT CONFLUENCE ZONE WITHIN THE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. 12Z SOUNDINGS AT TLH AND CHS REVEALED THE
   PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN
   MIXING RATIOS OF 14-15 G/KG. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
   QUITE POOR WHICH WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION
   AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH. NONETHELESS...LATEST
   MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE ONGOING STORMS SHOULD PERSIST
   TODAY...GRADUALLY EXPANDING NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN BY
   AFTERNOON AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS AND GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.
   THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF A RELATIVELY
   STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD.

   STORMS MAY TEMPORARILY WEAKEN THIS EVENING PRIOR TO RE-INTENSIFYING
   LATER TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/ASCENT IS ENHANCED BY THE
   ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THESE LATE-NIGHT STORMS WILL ALSO BE
   CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.  

   ...OH VALLEY THIS MORNING...

   MULTIPLE SHORT CONVECTIVE LINE-SEGMENTS AND WEAK SUPERCELLS ARE IN
   PROGRESS AS OF 12Z OVER CNTRL AND SRN IND WITH THIS ACTIVITY
   SITUATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE 100+ KT MID-LEVEL
   JET STREAK AND WITHIN A ZONE A DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
   MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL IL. STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS HAVE
   RECENTLY BEEN OBSERVED AS HAS SOME MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.
   DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /REF. 12Z
   ILN SOUNDING/...THE COMBINATION OF A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD AND AT
   LEAST MODEST LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   SUSTAIN SOME EMBEDDED BOWING/LEWP STRUCTURES --AND AN ASSOCIATED
   WIND DAMAGE THREAT-- THROUGH THIS MORNING.

   ..MEAD/MOSIER.. 11/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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