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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 25, 2016 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Sep 25 00:29:52 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160925 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160925 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250029

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0729 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

   VALID 250100Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS NNEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTH NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   THIS EVENING.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/MID MO VALLEY...
   LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
   FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. SOUTH
   SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EVIDENT OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MID MO
   VALLEY WHERE A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT. A MOIST
   AIRMASS IS LOCATED BENEATH THE PLUME WITH SFC DEWPOINTS FROM NORTH
   TX NEWD INTO IA GENERALLY FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 F. THIS IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO LOW-END MODERATE INSTABILITY MOST NOTABLY IN NORTH
   TX AND IN ERN KS. IN ADDITION...REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS FROM OKLAHOMA
   CITY OK NNEWD TO TOPEKA KS SHOW MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE 35
   TO 45 KT RANGE OWING MOSTLY TO SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
   MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A BROAD CORRIDOR OF THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY LOCATED FROM NW TX NNEWD INTO SW IA. POOR LAPSE RATES AND
   DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT
   MARGINAL WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING ALL TOGETHER BY LATE EVENING.

   ..BROYLES.. 09/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 25, 2016
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