Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Aug 31, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 31 19:26:57 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160831 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160831 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 311926

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0226 PM CDT WED AUG 31 2016

   VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A TORNADO IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FLORIDA
   THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   A COUPLE OF WEAK AND TRANSIENT ROTATION SIGNATURES HAVE BEEN
   OBSERVED WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OFF THE WCNTRL FL COAST. SIZE
   OF LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO AT LEAST A MODEST
   INCREASE OVER THE WRN FL PENINSULA TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF
   TROPICAL CONVECTION. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH A
   MARGINAL RISK FOR A BRIEF TORNADO OVER A PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA
   THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

   ..DIAL.. 08/31/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT WED AUG 31 2016/

   ...FL...
   CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED
   TO POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM TODAY AS IT MOVES
   SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD -- REFERENCE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
   CENTER FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY STRENGTHEN
   ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...SOUTHWESTERLY VEERING WINDS
   /ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE/ AND WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
   TEND TO LIMIT THE TORNADO POTENTIAL EVEN WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL DIURNALLY DESTABILIZE. LATER THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
   THURSDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BACK AND
   STRENGTHEN PARTICULARLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL...WITH A
   RESULTANT INCREASE IN 0-1 KM SRH COINCIDENT WITH MIDDLE/SOME UPPER
   70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT
   SUPERCELLS WITH A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO RISK MAY
   DEVELOP/INCREASE...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE FL WEST-CENTRAL COAST.

   ...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
   RELATIVELY PREVALENT CLOUD COVER MAY SOMEWHAT ABATE THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING AND ALLOW FOR MODEST DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF A
   WEAK COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE MODEST AND
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL TEND TO BE WEAK. WHILE ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY IN
   THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW
   STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

   ...WEST-CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MT...
   A READILY DISCERNIBLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY OVER
   EASTERN ORE/WESTERN ID WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND
   INFLUENCE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND
   EVENTUALLY PARTS OF CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITHIN A
   MODESTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL
   SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS...ALTHOUGH WEAK
   CAPE AND WEAK WINDS NEAR THE TOP OF MIXED LAYER SHOULD TEND TO CURB
   THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNDRAFT WIND SPEEDS.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 31, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities