SPC AC 121951
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CST SUN FEB 12 2012
   
   VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   1630Z FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED ONGOING AND
   PRIMARILY EXPECTED DIURNAL TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SWRN/FOUR CORNER
   STATES PORTION OF THE OUTLOOK.  MEANWHILE...ELEVATED TSTMS ARE
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 13/00Z FROM SERN NM/FAR W TX INTO
   MUCH OF W TX.
   
   ..PETERS.. 02/12/2012
   
   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SUN FEB 12 2012/
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN CONUS WITH A
   PROGRESSIVE SRN STREAM FROM CA TO THE SRN PLAINS.  WITH RESPECT TO
   CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE THE
   EWD PROGRESSION OF THE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM UT/AZ THIS
   MORNING TO TX/OK BY EARLY MONDAY.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING
   THE TROUGH...ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING...WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING INVOF THE FOUR CORNERS. 
   OVERNIGHT...THE LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SPREAD EWD TO W TX...ABOVE AN
   INCREASING SLY LLJ.  THE LLJ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EROSION OF THE
   ARCTIC AIR MASS NOW COVERING MUCH OF THE SRN PLAINS...AS WELL AS
   MOISTENING NEAR AND ABOVE THE SURFACE.  THE NET RESULT WILL BE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /MUCAPE OF 50-200 J/KG
   ROOTED 800-700 MB/...AND AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR A FEW ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS BY TONIGHT FROM SE NM INTO W/NW TX.  THE CONVECTION
   COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION RATES TONIGHT...BUT THE
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LARGELY CONFINED TO AREAS OF TX WHERE
   TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL LIKELY BECOME MARGINALLY WARM FOR
   FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION.
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z