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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 2, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 2 05:04:26 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150702 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150702 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 020504

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1204 AM CDT THU JUL 02 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE
   TN AND LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS EWD TO
   THE MID ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC
   COAST. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
   TENNESSEE VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN HALF
   OF THE CONUS WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE PRIMARY WAVE OF
   INTEREST WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY
   THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BELT OF NWLY 40 KT 500 MB FLOW. AT THE
   SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD
   ACROSS OK AND INTO THE OH RIVER VALLEY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS WILL RESIDE NEAR/S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OH/TN VALLEYS...
   A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
   WRN KS AND NEB EARLY IN THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT WILL PROVIDE A
   MESO-HIGH WHICH MAY HELP TO REINFORCE THE FRONT ACROSS SRN KS INTO
   OK LATER IN THE DAY. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS OK/TX WITH A
   PLUME OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ERODING THE CAP. FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN
   STORM COVERAGE BY 21Z OVER WRN OK.

   AN EXPANSION OF NEW DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE TRENDING EWD ALONG
   THIS BOUNDARY INTO NRN AR AND PERHAPS WRN TN. HOWEVER...EXACT
   PLACEMENT MAY DEPEND ON THE EARLY STORM OUTFLOW AND EFFECTS ON
   STABILITY WHICH COULD DELAY THE BULK OF THE NEW DEVELOPMENT UNTIL
   00Z.

   IN ALL AREAS...DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT GIVEN
   LINEAR FORCING AND MERGING OUTFLOWS. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER KS AND OK NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
   PLUME.

   TO THE W...OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   ARE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME
   HEATING BENEATH NWLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS.

   ..JEWELL/GLEASON.. 07/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: July 02, 2015
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