Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 6, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 6 19:48:01 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150706 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150706 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Tornado Wind Hail
 Population  Cities/Towns  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 061948

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE MID-MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE FL PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING PRIMARILY FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS NORTHEAST
   INTO THE MIDWEST. A MARGINAL RISK FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   ALSO EXISTS OVER FLORIDA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

   ...SRN PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY REGION...

   ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO CURRENT FORECAST. STORMS
   DEVELOPING ALONG COLD FRONT ARE UNDERGOING A GRADUAL INCREASE FROM
   ERN KS THROUGH NRN MO WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR...MODEST INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
   PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
   PROMOTED BY A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITHIN AN OTHERWISE
   MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETER SPACE. REFERENCE SWOMCD 1315 AND
   1316 FOR MORE INFORMATION.

   ..DIAL.. 07/06/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT MON JUL 06 2015/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A CYCLONIC UPPER-AIR PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF CANADA AND
   THE N-CNTRL CONUS WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING AN
   EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED BELT OF 40-50 KT MID-LEVEL
   FLOW TRANSLATING FROM MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO AND
   THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  ELSEWHERE...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
   CNTRL APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN WHILE BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE RIDGE
   BUILDING DOWNSTREAM FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE.

   AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THE CNTRL CANADA/N-CNTRL
   U.S. TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WITH THE
   TRAILING EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY MOVING SEWD/SWD INTO THE OZARKS
   AND SRN PLAINS.  A FRONTAL WAVE OVER E-CNTRL MN THIS MORNING MAY
   UNDERGO SOME DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING THROUGH CNTRL WI TODAY.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO SRN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

   VISIBLE SATELLITE AND MOSAIC RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT CONSIDERABLE
   CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE
   POTENTIAL FOR AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WHERE THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR
   AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. 
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS --AND AN ASSOCIATED DAMAGING WIND
   THREAT-- MAY EVOLVE LATE THIS MORNING INTO AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF CNTRL/ERN WI INTO NRN IL ALONG BOTH THE PRE-FRONTAL COLD POOL
   CURRENTLY PROMOTING SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT...AS WELL AS
   POSSIBLY THE FRONT ITSELF.  

   FROM CNTRL IL INTO CNTRL KS/NRN OK...STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING
   COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL YIELD MODERATE TO STRONG
   AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000+ J/KG.  THIS
   INSTABILITY MAY FOSTER POTENTIALLY MORE VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AND/OR
   PRE-FRONTAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.  GENERALLY WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
   SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-ORDER STORM MODES...THOUGH
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND LINE SEGMENTS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL INTO THIS EVENING.

   ...MID ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON...

   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC
   CIRCULATION OVER CNTRL VA WHICH WILL SHIFT NEWD TODAY.  WHILE
   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST
   AND LEAST MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THIS FEATURE...AND A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A FEW WEAKLY ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
   WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
Top/Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 06, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities