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    Day 2 Outlook >
May 24, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 24 05:47:21 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150524 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150524 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240547

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU INTO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   MODELS INDICATE THAT A SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED NEAR SOUTH ATLANTIC
   COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. 
   HOWEVER...A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO ITS NORTHWEST APPEARS LIKELY TO
   SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AS THE BULK OF BROADER SCALE
   TROUGHING WITHIN ONE BRANCH OF THE SPLIT MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
   BEGINS TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS EAST OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  

   THIS LATTER FEATURE IS COMPRISED OF A NUMBER OF SMALLER SCALE
   PERTURBATIONS...SOME OF WHICH ARE ALREADY SUPPORTING CONSIDERABLE
   THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHERE
   A RETURN FLOW OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS ONGOING AROUND
   THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THIS
   MOISTURE...CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AT OR ABOVE
   1.75 INCHES...IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD...FROM
   THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE LOWER
   HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 

   THE IMPACT OF THE REMNANTS OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH
   PROBABLY WILL LINGER THIS MORNING ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF
   THE LOWER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI
   VALLEY...ON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR LATER TODAY REMAIN UNCLEAR. 
   BUT THE VARIOUS MODELS DO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST ONE SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD...FROM THE
   TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AT 12Z THIS MORNING...THROUGH THE MID/LOWER
   MISSOURI VALLEY BY 12Z MONDAY.  AS THIS OCCURS...GUIDANCE IS
   GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE THAT SOUTHERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL
   STRENGTHEN TO 30-50+ KT WITHIN A BELT OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHEASTERN
   PLAINS AND LOWER HALF OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT.

   ...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   THE EASTERN/LEADING EDGE OF CONGLOMERATE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
   CURRENTLY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PARTS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS
   SOUTHWARD THROUGH FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND EASTERN TEXAS AT 12Z THIS
   MORNING.  AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES...LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING /UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F DEW
   POINTS/ AND INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST
   CAPE /1000-2000 J PER KG/.  IN THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL BECOME
   CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.  DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS ALSO APPEAR POSSIBLE...WITH THE RISK FOR A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS
   NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX VICINITY THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  ONE OR TWO STRONG TORNADOES
   MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PAINS INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   MODELS SUGGEST MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE
   BENEATH STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG THE DRYLINE...FROM THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION INTO CENTRAL
   TEXAS.  THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT POTENTIALLY CONDUCIVE TO
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR AND
   MID/UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION...IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
   IMPULSE EXPECTED TO BE MIGRATING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL PLAINS
   DURING PEAK HEATING...IS MORE UNCLEAR.  AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
   OPPORTUNITY APPEARS TO EXIST FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.

   ..KERR/PICCA.. 05/24/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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