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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 23 05:54:07 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140923 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140923 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230554

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...THE NORTHWEST...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW
   OF THE STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO
   SEVERE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND A SECOND
   REMAINS OFF THE PAC COAST...BROAD RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
   MAJORITY OF COUNTRY THIS PERIOD.  WITHIN THIS SYNOPTIC-SCALE
   RIDGE...A WEAKENING VORT MAX IS PROGGED THE DRIFT NNEWD ACROSS THE
   CAROLINAS...WHILE A SECOND MAKES SLOW EWD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NRN
   AND CENTRAL PLAINS.  SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
   FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO LOW-END SEVERE
   RISK THIS PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
   COUNTRY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   WEAK/DIFFUSE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS MOST OF THE WEST...THOUGH
   THE PAC NW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY AFFECTED WITH TIME BY A
   DEEP/OCCLUDED OFFSHORE LOW.

   ...PORTIONS OF WRN KS/WRN NEB...
   GRADUAL EWD PROGRESSION OF MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
   NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AND ASSOCIATED ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LEE
   TROUGH INTO WRN PORTIONS KS/NEB...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
   AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS DIURNAL HEATING OF A MARGINALLY
   MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SUPPORTS 500 TO 1500 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  A
   FEW STRONGER STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE ACROSS THIS
   REGION...AIDED BY 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR MULTICELL
   ORGANIZATION OR PERHAPS EVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION.  AS
   SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY FROM
   WRN/CENTRAL NEB SWD ACROSS WRN KS...TO COVER AN AFTERNOON/EARLY
   EVENING WINDOW OF LOCAL HAIL/WIND RISK.

   ..GOSS/COHEN.. 09/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: September 23, 2014
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