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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 4, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Sep 4 19:51:38 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150904 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150904 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 041951

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

   VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST
   INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHWEST
   MINNESOTA...VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

   PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK
   AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY.

   STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG A CONVERGENCE
   BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.
   STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS PROMOTED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A
   WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS
   WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
   GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING.

   WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF VORT MAX
   OVER NERN ND INTO NWRN MN WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
   INTO EARLY EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 09/04/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015/

   SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
   FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
   NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
   PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
   SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
   STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
   TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
   MARGINAL.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: September 04, 2015
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