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    Day 2 Outlook >
Sep 23, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 23 00:57:29 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170923 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170923 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230057

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0757 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms remain possible this evening over northern Minnesota
   with a threat for a few instances of large hail and damaging wind.
   Elsewhere, isolated strong to severe storms will persist through mid
   evening over a portion of the southern into the central High Plains,
   but this activity should weaken by 03Z.

   ...Upper Mississippi Valley area...

   This evening a warm front extends from northwest MN to a surface low
   in southeast ND. A cold front extends from the low through eastern
   SD into northern and southwest NE. A very moist boundary layer with
   dewpoints around 70F resides in the warm sector across MN. However,
   both International Falls and Aberdeen RAOB data show a stout capping
   inversion with temperatures around 11-12C at 700 mb. Latest HRRR
   runs continue to suggest storms will increase/intensify over
   northern MN primarily within zone of increasing isentropic ascent
   north of the warm front as the low-level jet strengthens this
   evening. Recent radar trends continue to show an increase in storm
   coverage over northwest MN. Given presence of the warm layer aloft,
   LFCs will probably remain closer to the international border. These
   storms should remain slightly elevated north of the warm front, but
   may become capable or producing damaging wind and large hail. 

   Cluster of storms that initiated earlier along cold front continues
   moving through warm sector from southeast SD into southwest MN.
   Increasing convective inhibition suggests these storms will probably
   continue to weaken as updrafts become increasingly detached from the
   boundary layer. 

   ...Southern High Plains into the central Plains...

   Isolated storms that developed along the dryline persist from
   southeast NM through west TX and southwest KS. Downburst winds and
   hail will remain possible with the stronger storms through about
   02-03Z, followed by weakening as the boundary layer stabilizes.

   ..Dial.. 09/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: September 23, 2017
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