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    Day 2 Outlook >
Dec 23, 2014 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Dec 23 00:33:52 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141223 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141223 0100Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230033

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0633 PM CST MON DEC 22 2014

   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO
   TUESDAY MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.

   ...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT...
   IN THE WAKE OF AN EARLIER DISTURBANCE WHICH PRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS
   OVER AL AND GA...LARGER-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT HAS WEAKENED ACROSS
   THE REGION WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWING RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH
   POOR LAPSE RATES. ONE EXCEPTION WAS ACROSS SERN LA WHERE THE NEW
   ORLEANS SOUNDING SHOWED MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
   THETA-E OVERALL. 

   OVERNIGHT...HEIGHT TENDENCIES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY NEUTRAL ACROSS
   THE GULF COAST REGION BUT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK AND STRENGTHEN
   WHICH WILL RESULT IN A MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. THE
   GREATEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WOULD APPEAR TO BE
   ACROSS MUCH OF SERN LA AND PERHAPS FAR SRN MS AND AL CLOSE TO 12Z.
   WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST BEYOND 12Z
   TUE...THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER TX AS WELL AS MOISTENING
   AND SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MAY STILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED/WEAK
   TORNADO.

   ..JEWELL.. 12/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: December 23, 2014
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