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    Day 2 Outlook >
Mar 4, 2015 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Mar 4 05:51:33 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150304 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150304 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 040551

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1151 PM CST TUE MAR 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED NRN-
   AND SRN-STREAM SYSTEMS -- IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF
   THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION SWWD TO NM/FAR W TX BY 05/12Z.  AT THE SURFACE...THE LEADING
   EDGE OF A SURGE OF POLAR AIR -- INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE
   MID-ATLANTIC REGION WSWWD INTO N TX -- WILL MAKE STEADY SEWD
   PROGRESS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE WRN GULF AS A 1040
   MB HIGH RIDGES SEWD OUT OF CANADA INTO THE PLAINS.  A MORE GRADUAL
   SEWD ADVANCE OF THE CORRESPONDING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FARTHER E
   HOWEVER...WITH THIS BOUNDARY LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM NC SWWD ACROSS
   AL/SRN MS/SERN LA INTO THE WRN GULF LATE. 

   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST -- MAINLY
   NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT IN AN ANAFRONTAL-TYPE REGIME --
   FROM THE SRN ROCKIES/SRN PLAINS REGION EWD ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER
   MS/TN VALLEYS.  WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
   REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST...WEAK /NEARLY MOIST-ADIABATIC/
   LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST ONLY MEAGER CAPE AT BEST.  THIS COMBINED
   WITH A LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS
   LITTLE RISK FOR APPRECIABLE/ROBUST SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. 
   SIMILARLY...MODEST ELEVATED CAPE TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT --
   THOUGH LIKELY SUFFICIENT FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING -- SUGGESTS THAT
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEAK/TRANSIENT.

   ..GOSS/COHEN.. 03/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: March 04, 2015
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