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    Day 2 Outlook >
Jul 23, 2017 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Click to see valid 1Z - 12Z Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 23 04:57:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170723 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170723 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230457

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A PORTION OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY...GREAT LAKES AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM OKLAHOMA
   THROUGH THE MID SOUTH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A broad zone widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms and
   isolated severe risk will reside over portions of the Great Lakes,
   Ohio Valley and central Appalachians area today.  Isolated strong to
   severe storms may also occur from Oklahoma eastward to the Mid-South
   this afternoon.

   ...Synopsis...

   Shortwave trough over northern MN will continue southeast through
   the Great Lakes with a general amplification of synoptic trough over
   the eastern states today. Several vorticity maxima will rotate
   through this regime. At the surface a synoptic front will extend
   from OK northeast into the Ohio Valley region then east into the
   Middle Atlantic area. South of this feature, several convectively
   enhanced boundaries will reside in warm sector.


   ...Ohio Valley, Great Lakes into the Middle Atlantic region...

   Broad and moist warm sector will reside in this region, and areas of
   diabatic warming will contribute to moderate instability during the
   day. The combination of forcing for ascent associated with vorticity
   maxima migrating through amplifying upper trough, residual
   boundaries, terrain as well as the synoptic front will all provide
   mechanisms for storms to develop in the weakly capped warm sector. A
   secondary frontal surge may accompany the primary shortwave trough
   the upper Great Lakes and upper Midwest region.  Winds aloft will
   increase as upper trough amplifies with unidirectional westerly flow
   and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear. Mixed modes with both multicells
   and a few supercells are probable, and some storms evolving into
   clusters. Isolated damaging wind and hail will be the primary
   threats through early evening.

   ...Oklahoma through the Mid South...

   Storms are expected to develop along front and residual outflow
   boundaries as well as over the higher terrain from OK through the
   Carolinas region. This area will remain south of the stronger flow
   aloft with weak shear supportive of multicells. However, the
   thermodynamic environment with high precipitable water and moderate
   to strong instability will promote a risk for downburst winds and
   hail as the boundary layer destabilizes during the afternoon.

   ..Dial/Dean.. 07/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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Page last modified: July 23, 2017
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