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    Day 2 Outlook >
Oct 1, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 1 19:54:56 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141001 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141001 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 011954

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0254 PM CDT WED OCT 01 2014

   VALID 012000Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARKS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS AND
   NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WILL
   EXIST FROM NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
   MISSOURI FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. A
   SEPARATE ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM OVER EASTERN
   COLORADO LATE IN THE DAY AND SPREAD EAST INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND
   CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.

   THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS ISSUANCE IS TO EXTEND THE 5
   PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND CNTRL MO.
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS FAR NE OK AND SE
   KS WILL MOVE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET
   WILL MAKE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY
   THIS EVENING. A CHANGE WAS ALSO CONSIDERED TO REMOVE PARTS OF NRN OK
   FROM THE SLIGHT RISK. HOWEVER...THE NAM AND HRRR CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF OKC DUE TO ASCENT ASSOCIATED
   WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
   TROUGH AFTER 06Z.

   ..BROYLES/LINE.. 10/01/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT WED OCT 01 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE INTERIOR WEST THROUGH
   GREAT PLAINS WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THIS FEATURE OCCURRING
   DURING THE DAY ONE PERIOD. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE REGIME...A
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MO VALLEY WILL WEAKEN WHILE EJECTING
   NEWD THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   AND ATTENDANT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL WIND MAXIMA WHICH WILL PROGRESS
   FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
   THURSDAY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A LOW OVER FAR NWRN OK AS OF MID MORNING MAY DRIFT
   SLOWLY E/NE TODAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED DRYLINE SHARPENS FROM THE
   VICINITY OF THIS FEATURE SWWD INTO W-CNTRL TX. MEANWHILE...A WEAK
   COLD FRONT/TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
   UPPER MS VALLEY WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT OVER WRN KS
   BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE WITH THE ONSET OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SERN
   CO LATER TODAY. TONIGHT...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL STRENGTHEN
   MARKEDLY WHILE PROGRESSING EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND SEWD/SWD
   THROUGH THE CNTRL INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS...GRADUALLY OVERTAKING THE
   DOWNSTREAM FRONT/DRYLINE.  

   ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
   TONIGHT...

   12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE
   THAT ROBUST MOISTURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE
   OZARK PLATEAU TO WRN GULF COAST WITH LOWEST 100-MB MEAN-MIXING
   RATIOS OF 13-14 G/KG COMMON ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THESE AREAS. AND
   WHILE OBSERVED MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD A
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR MASS WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
   2000-2500 J/KG.

   GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE INFLUX
   OF THIS INSTABILITY INTO EARLY-DAY STORMS PRESENT OVER NRN INTO
   CNTRL MO...LIKELY ALLOWING SOME TO INTENSIFY WHILE BECOMING
   SURFACE-BASED ACROSS CNTRL INTO SRN MO LATER TODAY INTO THIS
   EVENING. SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR ORGANIZED STORM
   MODES /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWS/ WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   TO THE SW OF THIS TSTM REGIME FROM S-CNTRL/SERN KS INTO CNTRL
   OK...AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN OWING TO THE
   TENDENCY FOR SLIGHT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE
   DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AS SUCH...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE
   N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS LOW...ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AND
   THE DRYLINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCI FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
   SCATTERED LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN
   STORM INITIATION...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING
   LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE WITH
   ANY SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS OVER SERN KS THIS EVENING OWING TO THE
   ENHANCEMENT OF NEAR-GROUND SHEAR BY THE INTENSIFYING LLJ.

   TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY...AN ADDITIONAL CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS
   EXPECTED TO EVOLVE ALONG OR IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE
   STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT ADVANCING ESEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...INCREASED LARGE-SCALE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT...AND MUCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
   OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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