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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 27, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 27 20:00:26 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170427 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170427 2000Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 272000

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017

   Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST U.S. NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A few storms capable of damaging winds and perhaps hail or a tornado
   will be possible over parts of Georgia and South Carolina. 
   Otherwise, isolated severe wind gusts may accompany thunderstorms
   from portions of the lower Great Lakes region to the Southeast
   States today into this evening, and across portions of the central
   and southern Great Plains late this afternoon into this evening.

   ...discussion...
   The only change from the earlier outlook is to reduce wind
   probabilities from 15% to 5% for the GA/SC area.  As the Great Lakes
   upper system becomes increasingly displaced from the GA/SC area,
   weakening upper support will likely lead to less overall risk for
   wind damage due in part to the lack of a linear mode and stronger
   forcing for ascent.  

   Elsewhere, the outlook was not adjusted substantially.

   ..Smith.. 04/27/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/

   ...GA/SC...
   An ongoing band of strong thunderstorms continues to occasionally
   show low/mid level rotation and indications of severe threat.  This
   scenario will likely continue through the afternoon as more storms
   form eastward across central GA and eventually into western SC. 
   Local VAD profiles and forecast soundings suggest that low/deep
   layer shear is favorable for organized thunderstorms including
   supercells and bowing structures.  Continued daytime heating and
   destabilization along the southern fringe of cloud cover across the
   risk area would support an upgrade to SLGT risk.  Locally damaging
   wind gusts are probably the main threat in the strongest cells. 
   However, an isolated tornado or two, along with some hail, is
   possible.

   ...OH/PA/NY/WV/VA...
   The latest surface analysis shows a cold front sweeping eastward
   across Lower MI and western OH. Only broken cloud cover ahead of the
   front is helping surface temperatures to climb through the mid 70s,
   resulting in steep low-level lapse rates and marginal instability.
   12z CAM solutions are relatively consistent that scattered showers
   and thunderstorm development this afternoon along/ahead of the front
   from eastern OH into much of WV and western PA.  The storms will
   eventually spread into central PA/VA and western MD this evening. 
   Strongly considered an upgrade to SLGT over parts of this corridor. 
   However, forecast soundings suggest very little CAPE and mid-level
   lapse rate only in the 6.0 C/km range.  It is likely that a few
   fast-moving showers and thunderstorms will pose a risk of
   gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.  This region will be
   re-evaluated for an upgrade to SLGT at 20z.

   ...CO/KS/OK/TX...
   A few high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and early
   evening over parts of southeast CO, southwest KS, and portions of
   the TX/OK Panhandles.  Instability will be quite limited.  However,
   steep mid level lapse rates and favorable wind fields suggest some
   risk of hail and gusty winds in the strongest cells.

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z

        
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Page last modified: April 27, 2017
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