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    Day 2 Outlook >
Nov 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 07:18:23 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141123 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141123 1200Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230718

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0118 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE INLAND TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST AL AND SOUTHWEST GA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   FROM LA TO NC AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHERN FL...

   CORRECTED FOR SPELLING ERROR

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
   OF TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST FROM
   LOUISIANA EARLY TODAY TO PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST LATER
   TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS AND POSSIBLY
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
   COAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEAST AND
   AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST...ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...AND TO THE
   TN VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE
   WILL BE EJECTED NORTHEAST IN RESPONSE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH
   AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. AS THE LEADING WAVE
   AND ASSOCIATED INTENSE 500MB WINDS OF 70-75KT SPREAD FROM SOUTHEAST
   LA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE DAY...A BROADER REGION
   OF STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
   SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE MIDWEST AND RESULT IN A DEEPENING
   SYNOPTIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
   MONDAY MORNING.

   ...GULF COAST TO SOUTHEAST...
   LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORT STORM-SCALE GUIDANCE SCENARIOS
   IN THE EVOLUTION OF A LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN
   GULF AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST LA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. SAME
   GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING POOR AIRMASS
   QUALITY AMIDST THE CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS...AS WELL AS WITH
   EASTWARD EXTENT AHEAD OF A POTENTIALLY BETTER ORGANIZED COMMA-HEAD
   AND ARC OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT EJECTING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT...IN ADDITION
   TO OUTRUNNING TRUE TROPICAL MARITIME AIRMASS RETURN TO THE IMMEDIATE
   GULF COAST OF LA...THE LEADING CONVECTIVE LINE MAY LOSE INTENSITY
   DURING THE MORNING AS IT OUTRUNS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE.

   THE DECAY OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY OF THE LEADING CONVECTIVE BAND
   MAY PERMIT GREATER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM
   NEAR AND EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE. MOST RECENT
   GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH EARLIER TRENDS IN SHOWING A NARROW AXIS
   OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY /SBCAPE 1000-1500 J PER KG/ MAY EVOLVE
   FROM THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE INLAND TO PERHAPS SOUTHWEST GA
   COINCIDENT WITH DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND STRONG LOW LEVEL MASS AND
   MOISTURE FLUXES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF 70-75KT
   MIDLEVEL JET STREAK. AT THE SAME TIME...LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR
   FORCED ASCENT AND VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR AS
   THE MID/UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO DE-AMPLIFY IN RESPONSE TO STRONGER
   UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION.

   DESPITE SOME OF THESE LIMITING FACTORS...AS STRONGER/REMAINING UPPER
   FORCING AND WIND FIELDS MOVE ACROSS THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH
   LATE AFTERNOON...ANY CONVECTION IN THIS REGIME WILL BE FAST-MOVING
   AND POSE A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES.

   GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO AND CONSISTENCY IN THE SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
   MODEST SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION IN A NARROW CORRIDOR COINCIDENT
   WITH INTENSE LOW THROUGH MIDLEVEL WIND FIELDS FROM THE WESTERN FL
   PANHANDLE INLAND TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN AL/GA...IT SEEMS PRUDENT TO
   INITIATE A SMALL 10 PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY OVER THESE AREAS
   ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING ENHANCED SLIGHT RISK. 

   ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SLIGHT-RISK AREA...SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE MORE
   ISOLATED. STRONGER DEEP ASCENT WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY
   TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEEPENING CYCLONE
   AND IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDLEVEL JET...LIMITED
   BUOYANCY WILL LEAD TO A LOWER SEVERE WEATHER  PROBABILITY WITH
   NORTHWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR -- ESPECIALLY AS  MORE
   WIDESPREAD CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST INTERRUPTS POLEWARD
   FLUXES OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR. 

   FARTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...STRONGER LATENT
   HEAT FLUXES ATOP THE GULF STREAM MAY SUPPORT MORE ROBUST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTENING OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH EARLY
   MONDAY MORNING. GIVEN PRESENCE OF INTENSE LOW LEVEL JET AND
   POTENTIALLY LARGE HELICITY...LOW PROBABILITY TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY
   DEVELOP OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ..CARBIN/LEITMAN.. 11/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1300Z

        
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