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    Day 2 Outlook >
Apr 26, 2015 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 26 13:03:39 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150426 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150426 1300Z Day 1 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 261303

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0803 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

   VALID 261300Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER LARGE PART OF TX...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ENHD RISK AREA
   FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD INTO SRN/CNTRL OK...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
   FROM DEEP S TX INTO THE SRN PLNS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE STORMS
   SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE TEXAS GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY.
   ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ALSO MAY OCCUR THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   FOUR CORNERS TROUGH EXPECTED TO TURN EWD AND EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
   LOW OVER THE SRN HIGH PLNS TNGT/EARLY MON AS 80 KT NLY JET STREAK
   NOW OVER THE LWR CO VLY REFORMS E ACROSS FAR W TX...AND UPSTREAM
   RIDGE BUILDS N ACROSS THE PAC NW.  

   AT LWR LVLS...STRENGTHENING SLY FLOW/LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW
   MARITIME TROPICAL AIR TO SURGE NNW ACROSS CNTRL AND E TX
   TODAY...WHILE WEAK NRN STREAM COLD FRONT SETTLE FARTHER S ACROSS OK
   AND AR.  

   ...SRN PLNS TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE SRN PLNS
   THIS PERIOD AS FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
   INTERACTS WITH RAPIDLY MOISTENING LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT AND
   STRENGTHENING SHEAR OVER MUCH OF TX AND SRN OK. SETUP APPEARS
   FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SVR STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS
   OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH VARIABLE STORM MODES AND INTENSITIES
   EXPECTED TO SEVERAL FACTORS.  

   IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC DATA SHOW LEADING EDGE OF RETURNING
   MARITIME AIR ATTM EXTENDS FROM NEAR DRT ENE NEAR TYR. SATELLITE ALSO
   SUGGEST PRESENCE OF A LEAD UPR IMPULSE NOW OVER CNTRL NM THAT
   PRECEDES THE AZ TROUGH.  THIS FEATURE...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER FARTHER
   S IN NRN CHIHUAHUA...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SFC HEATING...MAY SUPPORT
   SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTN OVER PARTS OF W TX. OTHER SCTD
   STORMS...ELEVATED ABOVE THE EML...ALSO MAY PERSIST ACROSS S TX AND
   ALONG THE MIDDLE TX GULF CST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
   BECOME SVR.  

   LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE...HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SFC
   HEATING...RETURNING LOW-LVL MOISTURE...AND INCREASING HEIGHT
   FALLS/DCVA EXPECTED TO FOSTER INTENSE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF LEE
   TROUGH/WARM FRONT/COOL FRONT INTERSECTION OVER NW TX AND SW OK. 
   GIVEN STRENGTH AND VERTICALLY-VEERING NATURE OF WIND FIELD...THIS
   ACTIVITY COULD YIELD SEVERAL SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL...TORNADOES...AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND AS SBCAPE INCREASES TO
   BETWEEN 1500 AND 3000 J/KG. A CONDITIONAL RISK ALSO WILL EXIST FOR
   MORE ISOLD SVR STORMS TO ARISE FARTHER S ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY
   INVOF LOW-LVL MOISTURE GRADIENT...AND OVER N CNTRL TX...AS HEATING
   AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE LOCALLY BREACH EML CAP. THESE
   STORMS ALSO WILL POTENTIALLY INCLUDE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE
   HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN 40-50 KT
   WSWLY DEEP SHEAR.  

   BY EARLY EVE...THE CNTRL AND N TX STORMS LIKELY WILL MERGE INTO ONE
   OR MORE LOOSELY-ORGANIZED CLUSTERS. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE
   STORM SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A RISK FOR VERY LARGE
   HAIL...ISOLD TORNADOES...AND A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED RISK FOR MORE
   WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND. LATER TNGT AND EARLY MON...ARRIVAL OF STRONGER
   HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN UPR TROUGH...AND THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF VERY
   RICH GULF AIR...SUGGEST THAT A SEPARATE MCS OR TWO MAY FORM OVER S
   CNTRL TX. THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A
   LARGER-SCALE...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...EXTENDING THE
   RISK FOR DMGG WIND AND HAIL FROM EMBEDDED BOWS E/ESE ACROSS THE TX
   CSTL PLN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

   PARTS OF TX ULTIMATELY MAY REQUIRE UPGRADE TO MDT RISK IN LATER
   OTLKS AS MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF ENHANCED BUOYANCY AND LOW-LVL
   FORCING FOR ASCENT BECOME MORE FOCUSED THAN THEY APPEAR ATTM. 

   ...SERN STATES...
   SCTD DIURNAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER CNTRL FL TODAY...WHERE SFC
   HEATING SHOULD BOOST AFTN SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/JG. COUPLED WITH
   SEASONABLY STRONG /40-50 KT/...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW IN THE
   700-500 MB LAYER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW SUSTAINED
   MULTICELLS WITH A RISK FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS RISK
   APPEARS GREATEST OVER E CNTRL FL...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE
   ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.

   A SEPARATE AREA OF SCTD AFTN STORMS MAY FORM ALONG STALLING
   BACK-DOOR FRONT IN SC...WHERE SOMEWHAT MORE MODEST WLY FLOW WILL
   PERSIST IN WAKE OF DEPARTING UPR TROUGH....AND MOISTURE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.

   ..CORFIDI/DEAN.. 04/26/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1630Z

        
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