STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 061200-071200
LESS THAN A SLIGHT RISK.
...SYNOPSIS...
NEAR THE END OF DAY 2 AND EARLY DAY 3...A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT SWD TO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/N FL IN THE WAKE OF A LOW THAT
WILL MOVE QUICKLY EWD FROM THE NC AREA INTO THE ATLANTIC.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD...WITH DIMINISHING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
LATER IN THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS AND WEAKENS IN THE WARM
SECTOR. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NE GULF COAST...BUT THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY. THE ETA HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY
TO BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE LA/TX AREA
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE AGAIN
WITH THE 00Z RUN.
..THOMPSON.. 03/04/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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