STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
VALID 011200-021200
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR ERN PORTIONS
OF THE NRN PLAINS...AND FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH AN AXIS OF MID 60F SURFACE DEW
POINTS EXTENDING AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN ND. APPEARS COMBINATION OF
SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT WILL SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EWD INTO NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING. SHEAR
IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
...MT/WRN SD INTO ERN WY/NERN CO...
ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES TUESDAY...AND SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR
JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NRN CO.
MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FRONT RANGE
FROM CENTRAL MT WHERE H5 WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KT INTO NERN CO
WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE
THREAT AS STORMS SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN MODEST
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
..EVANS.. 06/29/03
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
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