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Jun-29-2003 1200 UTC Day 3 Convective Outlook
Categorical Graphic
1200 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
      
Probabilistic Graphic (more info)
1200 Day 3 Prob Graphic
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   STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS.
    
   VALID 011200-021200
    
   A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR ERN PORTIONS
   OF THE NRN PLAINS...AND FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
   
   
   ...CENTRAL/ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...
   FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE
   ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TUESDAY...WITH AN AXIS OF MID 60F SURFACE DEW
   POINTS EXTENDING AHEAD OF IT INTO ERN ND.  APPEARS COMBINATION OF
   SURFACE HEATING AND DEEP ASCENT ALONG FRONT WILL SUPPORT
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL ND WHICH WILL INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE AND INTENSITY EWD INTO NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING.  SHEAR
   IS FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WITH
   THIS ACTIVITY...INCREASING THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
   WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
   
   ...MT/WRN SD INTO ERN WY/NERN CO...
   ANOTHER FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO THE NRN
   ROCKIES TUESDAY...AND SHOULD INCREASE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER
   THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NRN ROCKIES DURING THE MID TO LATE
   AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ALSO DEVELOP OVER OR
   JUST EAST OF THE FRONT RANGE INTO ERN WY/NEB PANHANDLE/NRN CO. 
   MODEST SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE FRONT RANGE
   FROM CENTRAL MT WHERE H5 WINDS WILL APPROACH 50 KT INTO NERN CO
   WITH H5 WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT.  THIS WILL ENHANCE THE SEVERE
   THREAT AS STORMS SHIFT ENEWD THROUGH THE EVENING GIVEN MODEST
   INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS.
    
   ..EVANS.. 06/29/03
    
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1200Z
        
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