SPC AC 081238
   
   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2004
   
   VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
   
   THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW
   BUF 20 WNW ELM 20 NNE IPT 35 WNW CXY 25 SSE PIT 30 SW MFD 25 NNW MIE
   15 ENE PIA 30 S OTM 25 ENE BIE 40 NNW CNK 45 SW EAR 20 ENE LBF 30
   WNW VTN 20 S RAP 35 ENE 81V 65 NE 4BQ 25 WNW DIK 40 WNW BIS 25 ESE
   JMS 25 N AXN 20 ENE EAU MTW 45 W MBS 55 N MTC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SAV 55 ESE MCN
   20 NNE ATL 60 SSE TYS 15 ENE HTS 30 NNW UNI 20 NE DAY 15 WNW SPI STJ
   35 WNW EMP 20 ESE GAG 25 ENE BGS 25 WNW SJT 40 E SJT 25 SE BWD MLC
   25 ESE UMN 20 NW ARG 30 S TXK 30 NNE GLS ...CONT... 10 NE JAX 10 WSW
   CTY.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE DLH 25 NE AUW
   30 NW MBL 30 SSW OSC.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE BUF BDR.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W MRF 20 E ROW 45
   NNW CAO 10 E SNY 55 NNE DGW 15 ENE COD 45 S 27U 50 NNW 4LW 55 SSE
   EUG 15 WNW ONP.
   
   GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ACY 10 N BWI
   40 NNW RIC 15 S RIC 10 SE ECG.
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS TO
   WRN PA...
   
   ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO OH VALLEY...
   
   WLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY.  THIS FOCUS FOR ASCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
   STEADILY EWD MIGRATION OF ONGOING MCS ACROSS WI/LOWER MI INTO
   UPSTATE NY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION ARE
   NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   REMAINING SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG ELEVATED UPDRAFTS.  MAJOR AIRMASS
   MODIFICATION WILL BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TO SUPPORT
   BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION THUS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND
   LARGELY DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION WITHIN DEEP WLY FLOW REGIME.  LARGE
   HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ERN-MOST
   CONVECTION...WITH A SLIGHTLY INCREASED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS
   WARM FRONT RETREATS TOWARD UPSHEAR GENERATING ELEMENTS.
   
   FARTHER WEST...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
   PLAINS RESULTING IN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THERMALS FREE TO CONVECT BY
   MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS ALREADY SUPPORT A QUICK
   WARM UP WITH A NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE JUST OFF THE SFC
   THROUGH 500MB AT LBF.  HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...ESPECIALLY
   FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL HAMPER STORM ORGANIZATION FOR SRN MOST
   ACTIVITY.  IT APPEARS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE ACROSS
   THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHERE PARCELS WILL BE FREE TO CONVECT BY
   DIURNAL PEAK HEATING ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE.  WLY LARGE SCALE
   MEAN WIND WILL ALLOW THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS
   AND CENTRAL NEB WHERE IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY STRONG
   LLJ...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY EVENING.  WITH TIME STRONG WARM ADVECTION
   ON NOSE OF LLJ SHOULD GENERATE ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF MCS/S ACROSS
   ERN NEB INTO IA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN GENERATING
   HAIL ATOP COOLER BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS THAT WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD
   ACROSS NEB/IA.
   
   ..DARROW/CROSBIE.. 05/08/2004
   
   ...NOTICE...
   FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
   LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
   GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
   HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
   INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 1630Z