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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 7, 2022
Updated: Sun Aug 7 08:44:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Aug 10, 2022 - Thu, Aug 11, 2022 D7Sat, Aug 13, 2022 - Sun, Aug 14, 2022
D5Thu, Aug 11, 2022 - Fri, Aug 12, 2022 D8Sun, Aug 14, 2022 - Mon, Aug 15, 2022
D6Fri, Aug 12, 2022 - Sat, Aug 13, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 070842
   SPC AC 070842

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   Model spreads remain reasonable with the large-scale pattern during
   the D4-D8 period, showing an upper high over the central
   Rockies/Plains, and a large upper trough moving into the Great Lakes
   and Northeast. At the surface, a lengthy front will gradually
   translate south through the period, beginning along a Mid Atlantic
   to Oklahoma line on Wed/D4, and possibly reaching the Gulf Coast
   states by Fri/D6 as the eastern upper trough develops. Although
   strong northwest flow is forecast over the Great Lakes on Wed/D4 and
   Thu/D5, the aforementioned frontal activity will remain south of the
   stronger shear, and thus potential appears too low for more than
   isolated severe storms through the period.

   ..Jewell.. 08/07/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 07, 2022
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