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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 2, 2022
Updated: Sat Jul 2 08:56:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Tue, Jul 05, 2022 - Wed, Jul 06, 2022 D7Fri, Jul 08, 2022 - Sat, Jul 09, 2022
D5Wed, Jul 06, 2022 - Thu, Jul 07, 2022 D8Sat, Jul 09, 2022 - Sun, Jul 10, 2022
D6Thu, Jul 07, 2022 - Fri, Jul 08, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 020854
   SPC AC 020854

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022

   Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

   A prominent upper ridge is forecast to encompass much of the central
   CONUS into the Southeast through the extended forecast period. The
   potential for organized severe thunderstorms each day should be tied
   to low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving around the upper ridge
   from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley
   vicinity. If any of these small-scale perturbations cresting the
   ridge can encourage a convective cluster to grow upscale into an
   MCS, then damaging winds would be possible as convection spreads
   east-southeastward across parts of the Midwest into the OH Valley
   and Great Lakes. The northern extent of any appreciable severe
   threat will be tied to the presence of rich low-level moisture
   along/south of a weak front. At this point, predictability remains
   low regarding the evolution/timing of these subtle mid-level
   perturbations, and related potential for one or more bowing clusters
   to develop and pose an organized severe risk.

   ..Gleason.. 07/02/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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