(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 160906
SPC AC 160906
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0406 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022
Valid 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
For Day 4/Thursday, severe-weather potential is expected to be
focused across the Upper Midwest. This relates to the expected
amplification of an upper trough over the northern Plains and an
increasingly moist air mass that is likely to develop northward
across the Upper Midwest ahead of a cold front. Severe thunderstorms
on Thursday currently appear most probable across portions of
Iowa/Minnesota into Wisconsin.
On Day 5/Friday, a broad warm/moist sector ahead of a cold front and
the prominent amplifying upper trough over the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest is expected to lead to a broad severe-weather
potential across the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity southwestward
toward the Ozarks and ArkLaTex region.
On Day 6/Saturday, while upstream storms may linger early in the day
ahead of the cold front, additional thunderstorm development and
intensification should occur across the Upper Ohio Valley and
central/northern Appalachians vicinity as the air mass diurnally
destabilizes. Moderately strong southwesterly winds will contribute
to organized storms capable of damaging winds and some hail.
Thereafter, increasing spread among numerical guidance relates to
limited predictability into Days 7/8.
..Guyer.. 05/16/2022
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