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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 25, 2024
Updated: Tue Jun 25 08:23:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Jun 28, 2024 - Sat, Jun 29, 2024 D7Mon, Jul 01, 2024 - Tue, Jul 02, 2024
D5Sat, Jun 29, 2024 - Sun, Jun 30, 2024 D8Tue, Jul 02, 2024 - Wed, Jul 03, 2024
D6Sun, Jun 30, 2024 - Mon, Jul 01, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 250821
   SPC AC 250821

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0321 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...D4/Friday: Central Plains into the upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
   The mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface cyclone
   that move across the northern Plains on Thursday are forecast to
   continue eastward across the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on
   Friday. Details regarding storm evolution remain uncertain, due to
   the potential influence of early-day convection, and a tendency for
   stronger mid/upper-level flow to be displaced from the more
   favorable instability. 

   Strong to potentially severe storms may develop along a cold front
   across parts of IA/MO into the central Plains. Some severe threat
   could also evolve across parts of MN/WI, depending on the extent of
   heating/destabilization in closer proximity to the surface cyclone. 

   ...D5/Saturday: Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
   Predictability begins to wane by this weekend regarding the
   timing/amplitude of the shortwave trough expected to move from the
   Great Lakes region into the Northeast/New England. There is some
   potential for stronger deep-layer flow to overspread an increasingly
   moist warm sector, but details regarding the surface pattern remain
   uncertain, and rather warm temperatures aloft could limit
   destabilization potential. Some potential for strong to locally
   severe storms could evolve on D5/Saturday along/ahead of a cold
   front from the Ohio Valley into parts of the Northeast.

   ...D6/Sunday - D8/Tuesday...
   Guidance generally suggests that another mid/upper-level shortwave
   trough will move from the Northwest into the northern Rockies and
   Great Plains, sometime in the Sunday to Tuesday time frame.
   Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the timing and amplitude
   of this shortwave and evolution of the surface pattern, but some
   organized severe-thunderstorm potential could eventually develop
   from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest and Great Lakes by
   early next week.

   ..Dean.. 06/25/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: June 25, 2024
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