(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080956
SPC AC 080956
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
...Days 4-5 Saturday/Sunday...
Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.
...Days 6-7 Monday/Tuesday...
Related to the probable east/northeastward advancement of a
low-latitude upper-level trough early next week, at least some
severe-weather potential could begin to increase by around Monday
across the southern tier of the CONUS. After a late-week frontal
intrusion across the Gulf of Mexico, the primary uncertainty is the
timing/quality of air mass modification and low-level moistening
early next week over the Gulf of Mexico. Most global guidance has
trended slower/less moist inland across Texas and the Lower
Mississippi Valley early next week. Regardless, some severe risk
could occur as early as Monday across south-central, and more so,
southeast Texas. The severe potential may expand eastward on Tuesday
to potentially include the middle Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi
Valley.
..Guyer.. 02/08/2023
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