(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 020854
SPC AC 020854
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 AM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
Valid 051200Z - 101200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A prominent upper ridge is forecast to encompass much of the central
CONUS into the Southeast through the extended forecast period. The
potential for organized severe thunderstorms each day should be tied
to low-amplitude shortwave troughs moving around the upper ridge
from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and OH Valley
vicinity. If any of these small-scale perturbations cresting the
ridge can encourage a convective cluster to grow upscale into an
MCS, then damaging winds would be possible as convection spreads
east-southeastward across parts of the Midwest into the OH Valley
and Great Lakes. The northern extent of any appreciable severe
threat will be tied to the presence of rich low-level moisture
along/south of a weak front. At this point, predictability remains
low regarding the evolution/timing of these subtle mid-level
perturbations, and related potential for one or more bowing clusters
to develop and pose an organized severe risk.
..Gleason.. 07/02/2022
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