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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 19, 2021
Updated: Tue Oct 19 08:00:04 UTC 2021
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Oct 22, 2021 - Sat, Oct 23, 2021 D7Mon, Oct 25, 2021 - Tue, Oct 26, 2021
D5Sat, Oct 23, 2021 - Sun, Oct 24, 2021 D8Tue, Oct 26, 2021 - Wed, Oct 27, 2021
D6Sun, Oct 24, 2021 - Mon, Oct 25, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 190758
   SPC AC 190758

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0258 AM CDT Tue Oct 19 2021

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Model consensus is that a low-amplitude omega blocking pattern with
   low severe potential will evolve during the first half of the day
   4-8 period. There is agreement among some model solutions including
   the ECMWF that a substantial upper trough will move into the Plains
   by day 7 or 8, preceded by sufficient moisture return for a severe
   weather threat. However, predictability is too low at this time to
   introduce a categorical risk area.

   ..Dial.. 10/19/2021

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 19, 2021
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