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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 22, 2024
Updated: Mon Jul 22 08:02:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Jul 25, 2024 - Fri, Jul 26, 2024 D7Sun, Jul 28, 2024 - Mon, Jul 29, 2024
D5Fri, Jul 26, 2024 - Sat, Jul 27, 2024 D8Mon, Jul 29, 2024 - Tue, Jul 30, 2024
D6Sat, Jul 27, 2024 - Sun, Jul 28, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 220800
   SPC AC 220800

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   An upper trough will move over the Northeast on Day 4/Thu and
   persist, albeit weakening with time, for much of the Day 4-8 period.
   Surface high pressure will build in the wake of a cold front moving
   across the Northeast on Thursday, and also persist into early next
   week. Some severe thunderstorm potential could develop over the
   Northeast states on Thursday as the cold front pushes east. However,
   timing of the front may be unfavorable with the diurnal cycle, and
   confidence is too low to include severe probabilities. 

   Meanwhile, an upper ridge will overspread much of the Plains, while
   a series of upper shortwave troughs move across the Pacific
   Northwest vicinity. Boundary layer moisture will increase beneath
   the upper ridge over the Plains. With the upper trough and surface
   high over the Midwest/Northeast blocking progression of the upper
   ridge over the Plains, daily surface trough/weak low development is
   expected over the northern/central High Plains vicinity. However,
   under the influence of an amplified upper ridge, thunderstorm
   development each day is uncertain given a lack of large-scale ascent
   and likely capping concerns. 

   Overall, severe thunderstorm potential appears low during the Day
   4-8 period.

   ..Leitman.. 07/22/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: July 22, 2024
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