(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050858
SPC AC 050858
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
...DISCUSSION...
While isolated severe thunderstorms may occur on Day 4/Thursday
across parts of the southern High Plains, limited low-level moisture
and modest deep-layer shear should preclude more a more organized
risk for severe thunderstorms. There are some indications in
medium-range guidance that an upper trough/low over the western
CONUS will slowly advance eastward and help erode persistent upper
ridging over the central states from this upcoming weekend into
early next week. Mid-level west-southwesterly flow is also forecast
to gradually strengthen across parts of the southern/central Plains
in this time frame. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms
should gradually increase from Day 5/Friday onward across these
areas as deep-layer shear strengthens, and low-level moisture and
related instability gradually increase. But, the timing and
placement of possible shortwave trough ejection over the
southern/central Plains remains uncertain, leading to low
predictability.
..Gleason.. 06/05/2023
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