(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 210945
SPC AC 210945
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022
Valid 241200Z - 291200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a southern-stream
shortwave trough over northwest Mexico and adjacent far west TX
early D4/Monday will continue eastward over TX throughout the day,
reaching the Lower MS Valley by early D5/Tuesday. Strong mid-level
westerly flow aloft will accompany this shortwave, with moderate
low-level southerly flow ahead of the system as well. However,
surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the middle TX Coast, with
the resulting low moving northeastward along the coast in southwest
LA, before then continuing eastward along the LA coast. Given the
location of this low, inland penetration of any moist and unstable
air will be very limited, keeping severe probabilities very low on
D4/Monday.
This shortwave and attendant surface low are forecast to continue
moving eastward on D5/Tuesday, with the surface low moving across
the FL Peninsula and northern FL. However, limited buoyancy across
the region should preclude severe thunderstorms.
Stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS for
D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday.
..Mosier.. 01/21/2022
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