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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 14, 2024
Updated: Mon Oct 14 08:41:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Oct 17, 2024 - Fri, Oct 18, 2024 D7Sun, Oct 20, 2024 - Mon, Oct 21, 2024
D5Fri, Oct 18, 2024 - Sat, Oct 19, 2024 D8Mon, Oct 21, 2024 - Tue, Oct 22, 2024
D6Sat, Oct 19, 2024 - Sun, Oct 20, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140838
   SPC AC 140838

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   There appears much better consensus between the ECENS/ECMWF and
   GEFS/GFS concerning the evolution of the mid/upper flow late this
   week into early next week.  Within larger-scale mid-level troughing
   developing inland of the Pacific coast by mid week, one embedded
   short wave impulse progressing northeast of the Canadian Rockies at
   the outset of the period is forecast to pivot across the Canadian
   Prairies into the higher latitudes of interior Canada, accompanied
   by the consolidating primary surface cyclone.

   It now appears probable that the significant trailing short wave
   perturbation will undergo considerable amplification and split off
   the main belt of westerlies, while digging inland of the northern
   Pacific coast.  It appears that this will include the evolution of a
   deepening mid-level low near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the
   Southwest, where it may linger into next weekend as low-amplitude
   ridging shifts inland within the westerlies across the Canadian
   Rockies/Prairies and adjacent international border vicinity.  As
   westerly mean flow then strengthens downstream of digging
   large-scale troughing off the Pacific coast late this weekend into
   early next week, it appears that the low will transition to an open
   wave and accelerate across the Rockies through the central Great
   Plains, around the northern periphery of building ridging in the
   subtropical latitudes.

   Preceding the emergence of the perturbation from the Southwest, the
   models continue to indicate that the development of a moistening
   southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will be impeded by the
   maintenance of surface ridging across much of the eastern U.S.
   through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity.  While some strong
   thunderstorm development might not be entirely out of the question,
   particularly Friday with some modest initial moistening near
   lingering relatively deep surface troughing across the central high
   plains, the risk for severe weather appears generally low through
   this period.

   ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 14, 2024
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