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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 20, 2025
Updated: Thu Mar 20 09:00:03 UTC 2025
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sun, Mar 23, 2025 - Mon, Mar 24, 2025 D7Wed, Mar 26, 2025 - Thu, Mar 27, 2025
D5Mon, Mar 24, 2025 - Tue, Mar 25, 2025 D8Thu, Mar 27, 2025 - Fri, Mar 28, 2025
D6Tue, Mar 25, 2025 - Wed, Mar 26, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200858
   SPC AC 200858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5...
   A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of
   the continental U.S. on Sunday. An upper-level low will develop over
   the Great Lakes, as an associated trough moves southeastward from
   the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast
   to move southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, moisture
   advection is forecast to occur over the Sabine and lower Mississippi
   Valleys, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F and
   moderate instability is expected to develop. Scattered thunderstorms
   appear likely to initiate ahead of the front Sunday evening from the
   Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley, with an
   MCS developing Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely
   support severe thunderstorm development, with a potential for severe
   wind gusts, isolated large hail. A tornado threat may also develop.

   A cold front is forecast to move through the Gulf Coast region
   Sunday morning. Isolated severe storms could develop ahead of the
   front early in the day from the Texas Coast eastward to the central
   Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. Predictability remains low
   concerning where the greatest severe threat will be along this
   corridor. The severe threat should end during the day as the front
   moves southward into the Gulf.

   ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8...
   On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into
   the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain
   over the Gulf Coast region. Isolated strong to severe storms could
   occur along the northern edge of this moist airmass. The greatest
   potential for severe could be across the Sabine River Valley, where
   some solutions have moderate instability Tuesday afternoon. This
   appears to be a conditional severe threat, and predictability is
   low.

   From Wednesday into Thursday, a relatively dry airmass is forecast
   over much of the nation. The exception could be across south Texas,
   where thunderstorm development will be possible. Although an
   isolated severe threat would be possible there, predictability at
   this extended range in the forecast cycle is low.

   ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: March 20, 2025
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