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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 27, 2022
Updated: Mon Jun 27 08:59:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Jun 30, 2022 - Fri, Jul 01, 2022 D7Sun, Jul 03, 2022 - Mon, Jul 04, 2022
D5Fri, Jul 01, 2022 - Sat, Jul 02, 2022 D8Mon, Jul 04, 2022 - Tue, Jul 05, 2022
D6Sat, Jul 02, 2022 - Sun, Jul 03, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 270857
   SPC AC 270857

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   Medium-range guidance suggests that a more prominent blocking regime
   developing during the middle to latter portion of this week may
   persist into the July 4th holiday, with a mid-level high becoming
   centered over the Yukon/Northwest Territories vicinity and mean
   mid-level troughing to its south closer to and perhaps somewhat
   inland of the U.S. Pacific coast.  Downstream mid-level troughing
   may become entrenched across much of eastern Canada into the
   Northeast, with a deep embedded low, emerging from the Canadian
   Arctic latitudes, gradually turning across the southern Hudson/James
   Bay vicinity through northern Quebec by the end of the period.

   In association with this perturbation, surface cyclogenesis may
   proceed across northwestern Ontario into southern Hudson Bay on
   Thursday, before occluding with secondary wave development across
   northern Quebec late this week into the weekend.  While a belt of
   stronger southwesterly deep-layer mean flow may linger across parts
   of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Thursday, destabilization
   along and ahead of the associated cold front may remain relatively
   modest due to the lack of more substantive low-level moistening.

   It is appearing more probable that potential for thunderstorm
   development in peak pre-frontal boundary layer instability may
   remain mostly north of the international border (near the St.
   Lawrence Valley) late Friday afternoon, before tending to diminish
   while advancing southward into Friday evening.  Better pre-frontal
   low-level moistening appears possible by Saturday as the front
   advances southward into the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New
   England vicinity.  While this could support considerable afternoon
   and evening thunderstorm activity, more modest deep-layer wind
   fields and weak mid-level lapse rates may only contribute to an
   environment marginally supportive of strong to severe gusts.

   Late next weekend into the July 4th holiday, it is possible that
   areas with at least some severe weather potential could develop
   across parts of the West into the northern Great Plains, downstream
   of the large-scale mid-level troughing.  However the predictability
   of the shorter wavelength perturbations within this regime remains
   low at this time.

   ..Kerr.. 06/27/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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