(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 220730
SPC AC 220730
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0130 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025
Valid 251200Z - 301200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On Saturday/D4, an upper trough will be exiting the Northeast early,
with temporary zonal flow across much of the central and eastern
states. The large-scale upper low by this time will be located
around Hudson Bay, with a low-amplitude feature possibly rotating
eastward across the Great Lakes. To the west, an upper trough and/or
cut-off low will drift southward across CA and NV, as upper ridging
develops north of there across southern BC and the Pacific NW. High
pressure will remain over the eastern states, providing dry and
stable conditions.
By Sunday/D5, southerly low-level winds across TX and into the lower
MS Valley will allow for at least elevated instability to develop,
and this should favor general thunderstorms from eastern TX to the
MS River. Given the weak instability and likelihood of substantial
clouds and precipitation, severe weather seems unlikely.
This glancing low-level warm/moist advection regime will remain in
place into Monday/D6, with additional precipitation likely across
parts of the Gulf Coast states. Relatively cool boundary-layer
conditions and marginal instability should preclude any severe
changes.
For the Tuesday/D7 time frame and beyond, the upper trough over the
Southwest will eventually proceed east toward the southern Plains,
but predictability is low regarding the timing of this feature.
..Jewell.. 01/22/2025
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