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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 6, 2023
Updated: Tue Jun 6 09:02:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
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D4Fri, Jun 09, 2023 - Sat, Jun 10, 2023 D7Mon, Jun 12, 2023 - Tue, Jun 13, 2023
D5Sat, Jun 10, 2023 - Sun, Jun 11, 2023 D8Tue, Jun 13, 2023 - Wed, Jun 14, 2023
D6Sun, Jun 11, 2023 - Mon, Jun 12, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 060900
   SPC AC 060900

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Tue Jun 06 2023

   Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

   Upper troughing over the eastern states should move into the western
   Atlantic on Day 4/Friday, with upper ridging remaining prominent
   from western Canada into the Rockies and much of the Plains. Some
   guidance indicates that a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
   within a southern-stream mid/upper-level jet may advance eastward
   from the Southwest and northern Mexico across the southern High
   Plains by Friday evening. Isolated thunderstorms will probably
   develop along a sharpening dryline across the southern High Plains
   in response. Instability and shear appear adequate for some severe
   threat with any convection that can form. However, confidence in
   thunderstorm coverage is not high enough to include a 15% severe
   area at this time. Isolated severe thunderstorms also appear
   possible Friday across parts of north FL along/south of a weak
   front, and across parts of the northern/central Plains as a separate
   cold front advances southward.

   An upper trough/low should approach the West Coast on Day
   5/Saturday, and move slowly eastward across the western CONUS
   through Day 6/Sunday. While upper ridging will likely be maintained
   over the Rockies and High Plains, mid-level flow is forecast to
   gradually strengthen this upcoming weekend across the southern
   Plains. Rich low-level moisture should also return northward over
   the southern/central Plains in this time frame. In general, upper
   ridging will prevail over the warm sector; but, weaknesses in the
   ridging associated with weak mid-level perturbations are evident in
   model guidance across the southern Plains through the weekend. Any
   thunderstorms that can develop along the length of the dryline, or
   perhaps near a front/dryline intersection, should be capable of
   producing severe hail/winds. Due to nebulous large-scale forcing,
   too much uncertainty currently exists in the placement and coverage
   of robust convection to include any severe areas this weekend across
   the southern Plains, but model trends will be closely monitored.

   Differences in the synoptic-scale pattern across the CONUS become
   more substantial in medium-range guidance from Day 7/Monday onward.
   Regardless, upper troughing should advance slowly eastward from the
   western to central CONUS early next week. As this occurs,
   strengthening mid/upper-level flow should overlap the warm sector
   and pose a risk for severe thunderstorms. Exactly where the greatest
   threat will develop remains highly uncertain given current model
   spread. But, an increasing threat for severe thunderstorms is
   evident across parts of the southern/central Plains to the MS Valley
   early next week.

   ..Gleason.. 06/06/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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