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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 22, 2022
Updated: Sun May 22 08:56:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
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D4Wed, May 25, 2022 - Thu, May 26, 2022 D7Sat, May 28, 2022 - Sun, May 29, 2022
D5Thu, May 26, 2022 - Fri, May 27, 2022 D8Sun, May 29, 2022 - Mon, May 30, 2022
D6Fri, May 27, 2022 - Sat, May 28, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 220854
   SPC AC 220854

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Sun May 22 2022

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Friday/Day 6...
   An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the
   southern Plains on Wednesday. Southwest mid-level flow will likely
   be established ahead of the system across the lower to mid
   Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass is forecast ahead of the system
   from the Texas Coastal plain northeastward into the mid Mississippi
   and Ohio Valleys. Thunderstorm development will be possible along
   this entire corridor Wednesday afternoon. The strongest instability
   is forecast to remain in the lower Mississippi Valley and central
   Gulf Coast states, where there is potential for organized
   convection.  The most likely area for a severe threat is currently
   from southeast Texas eastward across Louisiana into southwest
   Mississippi, where a 15 percent contour has been added. An isolated
   but marginal severe threat may also develop further north into the
   and Tennessee Ohio Valleys, where instability is forecast to remain
   relatively weak.

   On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to accelerate some,
   reaching the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the day. By Thursday
   afternoon, the instability axis is forecast to be across the
   Carolinas, where there will be a potential for strong thunderstorms.
   Additional thunderstorm development may take place in the weaker
   instability to the north from the Mid-Atlantic into parts of the
   Northeast. A severe threat could develop along parts of this
   corridor, where enough instability develops and mesoscale conditions
   become favorable. However, predictability on Thursday remains low
   concerning any specific threat area.

   On Friday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into
   the Appalachians, with the cold front advancing eastward to the
   Eastern Seaboard. The stronger instability is forecast to be pushed
   offshore suggesting that any potential for a severe threat along or
   ahead of the front should remain marginal.

   ...Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8...
   On Saturday and Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to take place
   across the Great Plains. An upper-level trough is forecast to move
   eastward across the Rockies on Saturday and into the Great Plains on
   Sunday. Organized convection will be possible ahead of the
   upper-level trough and near the northern edge of moderate
   instability, in parts of the northern Plains Saturday afternoon. As
   the trough moves eastward, the potential for organized storms should
   shift eastward on Sunday into the parts of the upper Mississippi
   Valley and western Great Lakes region. In spite of the current
   forecasts, the model spread is large concerning timing and
   instability distribution, suggesting predictability over the weekend
   for any given scenario is low.

   ..Broyles.. 05/22/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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