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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 21, 2022
Updated: Fri Jan 21 09:47:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022 D7Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022
D5Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022 D8Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022
D6Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210945
   SPC AC 210945

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 AM CST Fri Jan 21 2022

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a southern-stream
   shortwave trough over northwest Mexico and adjacent far west TX
   early D4/Monday will continue eastward over TX throughout the day,
   reaching the Lower MS Valley by early D5/Tuesday. Strong mid-level
   westerly flow aloft will accompany this shortwave, with moderate
   low-level southerly flow ahead of the system as well. However,
   surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the middle TX Coast, with
   the resulting low moving northeastward along the coast in southwest
   LA, before then continuing eastward along the LA coast. Given the
   location of this low, inland penetration of any moist and unstable
   air will be very limited, keeping severe probabilities very low on

   This shortwave and attendant surface low are forecast to continue
   moving eastward on D5/Tuesday, with the surface low moving across
   the FL Peninsula and northern FL. However, limited buoyancy across
   the region should preclude severe thunderstorms.

   Stable conditions are currently expected across the CONUS for
   D6/Wednesday through D8/Friday.

   ..Mosier.. 01/21/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 21, 2022
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