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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 5, 2021
Updated: Sun Dec 5 09:24:03 UTC 2021
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Dec 08, 2021 - Thu, Dec 09, 2021 D7Sat, Dec 11, 2021 - Sun, Dec 12, 2021
D5Thu, Dec 09, 2021 - Fri, Dec 10, 2021 D8Sun, Dec 12, 2021 - Mon, Dec 13, 2021
D6Fri, Dec 10, 2021 - Sat, Dec 11, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 050922
   SPC AC 050922

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CST Sun Dec 05 2021

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   An upper trough should move quickly eastward across the central and
   eastern CONUS on Day 4/Wednesday, with substantial low-level
   moisture probably remaining confined to parts of the immediate Gulf
   Coast. This should tend to limit the potential for organized severe
   thunderstorms across this region. By Day 5/Thursday, modest
   amplification of the mid-level westerlies may occur over portions of
   the western/central CONUS. Medium-range guidance is in reasonable
   agreement that modest low-level moisture will return northward
   across parts of the lower MS Valley ahead of this feature, but
   severe convection appears unlikely across the developing warm sector
   owing to a general lack of large-scale ascent.

   It appears increasingly likely that further amplification of an
   upper trough over the central CONUS should occur late this week into
   early next weekend, with a corresponding northward advance of rich
   low-level moisture over portions of the Gulf Coast states. Depending
   on the evolution of this upper trough and related surface features,
   some organized severe risk may materialize across parts of the
   Southeast beginning late Day 6/Friday and continuing through Day
   7/Saturday. Still, a fair amount uncertainty remains regarding the
   placement and evolution of the upper trough, as well as the prospect
   for robust boundary-layer instability to develop inland. At this
   point, including a 15% severe area appears premature, but trends in
   guidance will continue to be closely monitored.

   ..Gleason.. 12/05/2021


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: December 05, 2021
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