(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 270948
SPC AC 270948
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023
Valid 301200Z - 041200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the
early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level
moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally
confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should
pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest,
eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day
6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much
of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the
inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.
There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to
support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that
enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to
support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model
uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the
progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface
low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests
predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for
Thursday and Friday.
..Gleason.. 01/27/2023
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