(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 080946
SPC AC 080946
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025
Valid 111200Z - 161200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of
next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central
Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast
will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe
storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger
forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly
parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more
widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the
Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but
the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and
the warm sector will likely be narrow.
By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf
Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move
eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air
intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the
trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible
during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as
models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past
1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored.
..Wendt.. 02/08/2025
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