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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 23, 2022
Updated: Sun Jan 23 09:45:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022 D7Sat, Jan 29, 2022 - Sun, Jan 30, 2022
D5Thu, Jan 27, 2022 - Fri, Jan 28, 2022 D8Sun, Jan 30, 2022 - Mon, Jan 31, 2022
D6Fri, Jan 28, 2022 - Sat, Jan 29, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 230943
   SPC AC 230943

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022

   Valid 261200Z - 311200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that broadly
   cyclonic upper flow will cover much of the CONUS early D4/Wednesday.
   A series of shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through this
   upper troughing throughout the period, as upper ridging gradually
   builds eastward over the western CONUS. As a result, an amplified
   western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern is anticipated on
   D5/Thursday and D6/Friday.  

   Even with the development of this amplified character during the end
   of the week, the overall upper pattern is expected to remain
   relatively progressive with a less amplified pattern developing this
   weekend. 

   Continual reinforcement of the dry and stable conditions will keep
   severe thunderstorm potential very low from D4/Wednesday through
   D8/Sunday.

   ..Mosier.. 01/23/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: January 23, 2022
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