(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190940
SPC AC 190940
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
The latest deterministic GFS and ECMWF are now in better agreement
that a surface cold front should be nearly off the south FL Coast
around the start of the period on Day 4/Saturday. An upper trough
centered over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning should move over the
western Atlantic, which should generally limit thunderstorm chances
over land. Still, there may still be some potential for elevated
convection north of the cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula
during the day, but the overall severe potential appears low at this
time. With another frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico, the
lack of meaningful low-level moisture is expected to greatly limit
organized severe thunderstorm chances across the CONUS on both Day
5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday.
By next Tuesday (Day 7), there are some indications in medium-range
guidance that a southern-stream shortwave trough may advance quickly
from the vicinity of coastal TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico
and adjacent Deep South. It appears there may be sufficient
low-level moisture return northward across parts of the FL
Peninsula, in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level winds and
increasing instability, to support an isolated severe threat. Still,
there is too much uncertainty in the evolution of the upper trough
to include a 15% severe area at this extended time frame. Depending
on the speed of this upper trough and related cold front, a severe
threat may linger across parts of the southern FL Peninsula into Day
8/Wednesday, but predictability is low.
..Gleason.. 01/19/2022
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