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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 16, 2024
Updated: Tue Apr 16 08:56:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Apr 19, 2024 - Sat, Apr 20, 2024 D7Mon, Apr 22, 2024 - Tue, Apr 23, 2024
D5Sat, Apr 20, 2024 - Sun, Apr 21, 2024 D8Tue, Apr 23, 2024 - Wed, Apr 24, 2024
D6Sun, Apr 21, 2024 - Mon, Apr 22, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 160854
   SPC AC 160854

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0354 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   On Friday/D4, an upper low is forecast to move across Ontario, with
   an expansive low-amplitude trough sweeping east across the northern
   Plains and Great Lakes. This associated trough is expected to
   broaden and deepen over the next several days, becoming centered
   over Hudson Bay. The end result will be gradually expanding high
   pressure over much of the CONUS, with moisture shunted farther south
   each day.

   For Friday, a front is expected to stretch from TX across the
   Southeast and toward the Mid Atlantic, with robust low-level
   moisture to the south. While this will support destabilization, the
   boundary will largely be south of the strong winds aloft, with less
   shear potential. Scattered daytime thunderstorms are likely Friday
   along the front, with thunderstorm chances increasing over the
   southern Plains on Saturday/D5. While a minor southern-stream wave
   may move across the Southwest and northern Mexico on Saturday, shear
   is forecast to be weak.  

   High pressure is then forecast to shift south across the Plains and
   into the Southeast as the Hudson Bay and eastern North American
   trough develops, with little if any severe threat beyond

   ..Jewell.. 04/16/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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