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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 19, 2022
Updated: Wed Jan 19 09:43:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Jan 22, 2022 - Sun, Jan 23, 2022 D7Tue, Jan 25, 2022 - Wed, Jan 26, 2022
D5Sun, Jan 23, 2022 - Mon, Jan 24, 2022 D8Wed, Jan 26, 2022 - Thu, Jan 27, 2022
D6Mon, Jan 24, 2022 - Tue, Jan 25, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 190940
   SPC AC 190940

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0340 AM CST Wed Jan 19 2022

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   The latest deterministic GFS and ECMWF are now in better agreement
   that a surface cold front should be nearly off the south FL Coast
   around the start of the period on Day 4/Saturday. An upper trough
   centered over the Mid-Atlantic Saturday morning should move over the
   western Atlantic, which should generally limit thunderstorm chances
   over land. Still, there may still be some potential for elevated
   convection north of the cold front across parts of the FL Peninsula
   during the day, but the overall severe potential appears low at this
   time. With another frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico, the
   lack of meaningful low-level moisture is expected to greatly limit
   organized severe thunderstorm chances across the CONUS on both Day
   5/Sunday and Day 6/Monday.

   By next Tuesday (Day 7), there are some indications in medium-range
   guidance that a southern-stream shortwave trough may advance quickly
   from the vicinity of coastal TX across the northern Gulf of Mexico
   and adjacent Deep South. It appears there may be sufficient
   low-level moisture return northward across parts of the FL
   Peninsula, in tandem with strengthening low/mid-level winds and
   increasing instability, to support an isolated severe threat. Still,
   there is too much uncertainty in the evolution of the upper trough
   to include a 15% severe area at this extended time frame. Depending
   on the speed of this upper trough and related cold front, a severe
   threat may linger across parts of the southern FL Peninsula into Day
   8/Wednesday, but predictability is low.

   ..Gleason.. 01/19/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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