(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 170855
SPC AC 170855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Valid 201200Z - 251200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should remain
positive tilt and slow moving into this weekend. Guidance has
trended towards greater consistency with the evolution of its
attendant belt of enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the trough. Based
on current timing, a focused corridor of severe potential may
develop on D5/Saturday afternoon in the southern High Plains. With a
stout mid-level anticyclone anchored over south TX and 500-mb
temperatures warmer than -2 C across roughly the southeast
two-thirds of TX, a potential corridor of 15 percent probabilities
would likely be confined to the mesoscale. Predictability is too low
to confidently highlight such a corridor at this temporal scale.
After D5, predictability on the synoptic scale wanes considerably.
Guidance spread becomes large with the evolution of northern-stream
shortwave troughs and their influence on this southern-stream wave.
..Grams.. 09/17/2024
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