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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 9, 2024
Updated: Mon Dec 9 09:30:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Dec 12, 2024 - Fri, Dec 13, 2024 D7Sun, Dec 15, 2024 - Mon, Dec 16, 2024
D5Fri, Dec 13, 2024 - Sat, Dec 14, 2024 D8Mon, Dec 16, 2024 - Tue, Dec 17, 2024
D6Sat, Dec 14, 2024 - Sun, Dec 15, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 090928
   SPC AC 090928

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0328 AM CST Mon Dec 09 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Cyclonic upper flow and stable low-level conditions are expected
   across the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday as surface high
   pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. At the
   same time, a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough is
   forecast to progress across the Great Basin and Four Corners before
   then continuing into the central/southern Plains on D5/Friday and
   Mid MS Valley on D6/Saturday. 

   Surface cyclogenesis will likely precede this shortwave over the
   central Plains on D5/Friday, with low-level moisture advection
   anticipated over the southern Plains as well. The quality of this
   moisture advection will be tempered by the strength of a preceding
   cold front, with mid 60s dewpoints likely remaining confined to the
   TX Gulf Coast. Even so, thunderstorms still appear possible late
   Friday into early Saturday along and ahead of the cold front from
   east TX into the Ozarks, and across the Lower MS Valley on
   D6/Saturday. Uncertainty regarding the quality of the moisture
   return (and related buoyancy) as well as general uncertainties
   regarding the strength and timing of the shortwave limit overall
   predictability of the severe thunderstorm potential.

   ..Mosier.. 12/09/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: December 09, 2024
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