(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 010857
SPC AC 010857
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025
Valid 041200Z - 091200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi
stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and
eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast
period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression
of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some
key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate
potential in the coming days.
...Day4/Friday...
The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually
deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern
Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the
southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South
and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside
along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH
Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible
within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large
buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to
multiple preceding days of convective potential.
...Day5/Saturday...
The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern
Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday.
Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the
warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the
ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level
flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and
Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually
intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential
ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to
ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible
from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into
Saturday night.
...Day6-8...
The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper
trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some
severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with
seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences
on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of
proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond
Day 5.
..Lyons.. 04/01/2025
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