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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 5, 2024
Updated: Tue Mar 5 09:54:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Mar 08, 2024 - Sat, Mar 09, 2024 D7Mon, Mar 11, 2024 - Tue, Mar 12, 2024
D5Sat, Mar 09, 2024 - Sun, Mar 10, 2024 D8Tue, Mar 12, 2024 - Wed, Mar 13, 2024
D6Sun, Mar 10, 2024 - Mon, Mar 11, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 050952
   SPC AC 050952

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will
   overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
   central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be
   ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong
   deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization,
   with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat
   on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem
   with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture
   return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper
   trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low.
   Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not
   advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central
   Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the
   15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be
   a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable
   thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for
   tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection
   through Friday night.

   The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue
   moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day
   5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas
   through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for
   convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually
   become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast.
   Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and
   GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15%
   severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will
   exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding
   risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front
   associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day
   6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS
   through early next week.

   ..Gleason.. 03/05/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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