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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 13, 2024
Updated: Sun Oct 13 08:47:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Oct 16, 2024 - Thu, Oct 17, 2024 D7Sat, Oct 19, 2024 - Sun, Oct 20, 2024
D5Thu, Oct 17, 2024 - Fri, Oct 18, 2024 D8Sun, Oct 20, 2024 - Mon, Oct 21, 2024
D6Fri, Oct 18, 2024 - Sat, Oct 19, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 130845
   SPC AC 130845

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0345 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

   Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard
   is forecast to shift offshore and lose amplitude across the western
   Atlantic during the middle to latter portion of the coming work
   week.  In its wake, medium-range guidance indicates at least a
   couple of significant short wave perturbations will emerge from a
   somewhat more progressive regime across the mid-latitude latitude
   Pacific.  

   It still appears that the lead perturbation may provide support for
   strong surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the Canadian and northern
   U.S. Rockies during the latter portion of this week.  While there is
   variance among the models concerning early evolution south of the
   international border, primary cyclone development is appearing most
   probable across the Canadian Prairies into higher latitudes of
   interior Canada.  As this occurs, a trailing cold front may overtake
   modestly deep surface troughing across the northern into central
   U.S. Great Plains Thursday into Friday.  This could become a focus
   for a corridor of increasing thunderstorm development.  However, it
   still appears that rather modest to weak low-level moisture return,
   in the wake of a prior cool/dry intrusion as far south as the
   northern Gulf of Mexico, will tend to limit destabilization and
   minimize the risk for severe storms.

   Models indicate that the second impulse, quickly progressing inland
   behind the lead wave, will tend to split off toward the southern
   mid-latitudes.  However, the differences between the ECENS/ECMWF and
   GEFS/GFS remain quite large concerning the amplification and
   progressiveness of this perturbation across the central/southern
   U.S. late this week into next weekend.  Even so, with low-level
   moisture return off the Gulf of Mexico initially limited, and then
   perhaps impeded by the progression of the lead system, it is not
   clear whether these differences will have much impact on the overall
   convective potential.

   ..Kerr.. 10/13/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: October 13, 2024
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