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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 28, 2022
Updated: Wed Sep 28 08:20:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Oct 01, 2022 - Sun, Oct 02, 2022 D7Tue, Oct 04, 2022 - Wed, Oct 05, 2022
D5Sun, Oct 02, 2022 - Mon, Oct 03, 2022 D8Wed, Oct 05, 2022 - Thu, Oct 06, 2022
D6Mon, Oct 03, 2022 - Tue, Oct 04, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 280818
   SPC AC 280818

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022

   Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

   On D4/Saturday, Ian is forecast to weaken into a post-tropical low
   as it moves into the southern Appalachian region (see NHC advisories
   and forecasts for more information regarding Ian). Low/midlevel flow
   to the east of Ian's decaying circulation may remain sufficiently
   strong to support isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
   tornado from eastern NC into the Tidewater region. 

   For the rest of the extended range, the threat for organized severe
   thunderstorms appears low. In the wake of Ian, northerly low-level
   flow across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture
   return through early/middle next week, resulting in generally dry
   and stable conditions for most areas east of the Rockies.

   ..Dean.. 09/28/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 28, 2022
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