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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Aug 14, 2022
Updated: Sun Aug 14 08:57:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Aug 17, 2022 - Thu, Aug 18, 2022 D7Sat, Aug 20, 2022 - Sun, Aug 21, 2022
D5Thu, Aug 18, 2022 - Fri, Aug 19, 2022 D8Sun, Aug 21, 2022 - Mon, Aug 22, 2022
D6Fri, Aug 19, 2022 - Sat, Aug 20, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140855
   SPC AC 140855

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Rich low-level moisture should remained confined along/south of a
   front across the Southeast on Day 4/Wednesday. Thunderstorms should
   occur across this region during the afternoon, but modest mid-level
   flow on the southern extent of an upper trough should keep any
   severe threat rather marginal/isolated. Upper ridging should
   continue to dominate the western CONUS through late this week. A
   shortwave trough may advance southward over portions of the northern
   Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 5/Thursday, but both low-level
   moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited across these
   areas. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms from Day
   6/Friday onward also appears generally low, with upper ridging
   persisting over the western/central states, and upper troughing over
   the eastern CONUS.

   ..Gleason.. 08/14/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: August 14, 2022
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