(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 050952
SPC AC 050952
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024
Valid 081200Z - 131200Z
Enhanced mid/upper-level flow associated with an upper trough will
overspread much of the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley and
central Gulf Coast States on Day 4/Friday. Thunderstorms should be
ongoing Friday morning across parts of central/east TX. Strong
deep-layer shear should continue to support updraft organization,
with enough MUCAPE present for robust convection. The severe threat
on Friday should shift from TX into the lower MS Valley in tandem
with a northward-developing warm sector and low-level moisture
return. Latest guidance has trended slightly later with the upper
trough ejection, and depicts a somewhat weaker surface low.
Accordingly, it appears that the rich low-level moisture may not
advance as far northward as indicated previously across the central
Gulf Coast States. Have therefore trimmed the northern extent of the
15% severe area for Friday across central MS/AL. There will still be
a severe risk for areas closer to the coast, where a favorable
thermodynamic and kinematic environment should support a threat for
tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail with surface-based convection
through Friday night.
The upper trough and related mid/upper-level jet should continue
moving eastward across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions on Day
5/Saturday. Some severe threat should persist across these areas
through Saturday night. However, there may be a tendency for
convection to outpace the low-level moisture return and gradually
become more elevated with eastward extent across the Southeast.
Still, parts of southern AL into the FL Panhandle/north FL and
GA/SC/NC will be closely monitored for possible inclusion in a 15%
severe area if confidence increases that sufficient instability will
exist to support surface-based thunderstorms and a corresponding
risk for tornadoes and damaging winds. Once the surface cold front
associated with the upper cyclone clears the East Coast on Day
6/Sunday, severe potential should remain minimal across the CONUS
through early next week.
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