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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 27, 2023
Updated: Fri Jan 27 09:50:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Jan 30, 2023 - Tue, Jan 31, 2023 D7Thu, Feb 02, 2023 - Fri, Feb 03, 2023
D5Tue, Jan 31, 2023 - Wed, Feb 01, 2023 D8Fri, Feb 03, 2023 - Sat, Feb 04, 2023
D6Wed, Feb 01, 2023 - Thu, Feb 02, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 270948
   SPC AC 270948

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 AM CST Fri Jan 27 2023

   Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

   Organized severe thunderstorm potential should be muted through the
   early to middle portion of next week, as appreciable low-level
   moisture and related boundary-layer instability remain generally
   confined to the coastal Gulf waters. An upper trough/low should
   pivot from the West Coast across northern Mexico and the Southwest,
   eventually reaching the southern Plains vicinity around Day
   6/Wednesday. Regardless, a strong surface high intrusion across much
   of the Plains and eastern states is forecast to greatly limit the
   inland return of low-level moisture across the TX Coast.

   There are some indications that sufficient moisture return to
   support surface-based thunderstorms may occur over parts of the
   Southeast by Day 7/Thursday into Day 8/Friday. It appears that
   enough instability may be present Thursday over this region to
   support some threat for severe thunderstorms. However, typical model
   uncertainties exist at this extended time frame regarding the
   progression of the upper trough, placement of the related surface
   low, and degree of instability forecast. This suggests
   predictability remains too low to include any 15% severe areas for
   Thursday and Friday.

   ..Gleason.. 01/27/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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