(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 230943
SPC AC 230943
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0343 AM CST Sun Jan 23 2022
Valid 261200Z - 311200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in relatively good agreement that broadly
cyclonic upper flow will cover much of the CONUS early D4/Wednesday.
A series of shortwave troughs are forecast to progress through this
upper troughing throughout the period, as upper ridging gradually
builds eastward over the western CONUS. As a result, an amplified
western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern is anticipated on
D5/Thursday and D6/Friday.
Even with the development of this amplified character during the end
of the week, the overall upper pattern is expected to remain
relatively progressive with a less amplified pattern developing this
weekend.
Continual reinforcement of the dry and stable conditions will keep
severe thunderstorm potential very low from D4/Wednesday through
D8/Sunday.
..Mosier.. 01/23/2022
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