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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 16, 2022
Updated: Mon May 16 09:08:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, May 19, 2022 - Fri, May 20, 2022 D7Sun, May 22, 2022 - Mon, May 23, 2022
D5Fri, May 20, 2022 - Sat, May 21, 2022 D8Mon, May 23, 2022 - Tue, May 24, 2022
D6Sat, May 21, 2022 - Sun, May 22, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 160906
   SPC AC 160906

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0406 AM CDT Mon May 16 2022

   Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   For Day 4/Thursday, severe-weather potential is expected to be
   focused across the Upper Midwest. This relates to the expected
   amplification of an upper trough over the northern Plains and an
   increasingly moist air mass that is likely to develop northward
   across the Upper Midwest ahead of a cold front. Severe thunderstorms
   on Thursday currently appear most probable across portions of
   Iowa/Minnesota into Wisconsin.

   On Day 5/Friday, a broad warm/moist sector ahead of a cold front and
   the prominent amplifying upper trough over the northern Plains and
   Upper Midwest is expected to lead to a broad severe-weather
   potential across the Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity southwestward
   toward the Ozarks and ArkLaTex region.

   On Day 6/Saturday, while upstream storms may linger early in the day
   ahead of the cold front, additional thunderstorm development and
   intensification should occur across the Upper Ohio Valley and
   central/northern Appalachians vicinity as the air mass diurnally
   destabilizes. Moderately strong southwesterly winds will contribute
   to organized storms capable of damaging winds and some hail.

   Thereafter, increasing spread among numerical guidance relates to
   limited predictability into Days 7/8.

   ..Guyer.. 05/16/2022

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 16, 2022
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