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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 14, 2024
Updated: Fri Jun 14 08:25:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Jun 17, 2024 - Tue, Jun 18, 2024 D7Thu, Jun 20, 2024 - Fri, Jun 21, 2024
D5Tue, Jun 18, 2024 - Wed, Jun 19, 2024 D8Fri, Jun 21, 2024 - Sat, Jun 22, 2024
D6Wed, Jun 19, 2024 - Thu, Jun 20, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 140823
   SPC AC 140823

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0323 AM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

   Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Models indicate a strong upper ridge over much of the East and mean
   troughing over the western states for much of the period. While
   moderate southwest flow aloft will persist over parts of the
   northern Rockies and Plains, timing of the emerging features is
   uncertain. At this time, it appears a shortwave trough may move into
   the northern Plains on Tue/D5 as opposed to Mon/D4. Further,
   significant areas of early day convection appear possible on Mon/D4
   and Tue/D5, which reduces predictability further. However, air mass
   recovery is likely over parts of the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley
   on Mon/D4, with clusters of storms producing areas of damaging wind
   and locally severe hail. As such, will maintain the ongoing 15% area
   for Mon/D4.  Additional areas of severe hail/wind will be possible
   on Tuesday/D5, but predictability is low given the tendency for the
   eastern ridge to hold.

   ..Jewell.. 06/14/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: June 14, 2024
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