(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 070842
SPC AC 070842
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Sun Aug 07 2022
Valid 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Model spreads remain reasonable with the large-scale pattern during
the D4-D8 period, showing an upper high over the central
Rockies/Plains, and a large upper trough moving into the Great Lakes
and Northeast. At the surface, a lengthy front will gradually
translate south through the period, beginning along a Mid Atlantic
to Oklahoma line on Wed/D4, and possibly reaching the Gulf Coast
states by Fri/D6 as the eastern upper trough develops. Although
strong northwest flow is forecast over the Great Lakes on Wed/D4 and
Thu/D5, the aforementioned frontal activity will remain south of the
stronger shear, and thus potential appears too low for more than
isolated severe storms through the period.
..Jewell.. 08/07/2022
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