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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 20, 2024
Updated: Fri Sep 20 07:33:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Mon, Sep 23, 2024 - Tue, Sep 24, 2024 D7Thu, Sep 26, 2024 - Fri, Sep 27, 2024
D5Tue, Sep 24, 2024 - Wed, Sep 25, 2024 D8Fri, Sep 27, 2024 - Sat, Sep 28, 2024
D6Wed, Sep 25, 2024 - Thu, Sep 26, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 200731
   SPC AC 200731

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

   Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread
   during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central
   U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing
   across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe
   potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to
   the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a
   seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow.
   Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the
   surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and
   surface high pressure builds across the Midwest.

   ..Leitman.. 09/20/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 20, 2024
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