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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 7, 2023
Updated: Wed Jun 7 09:00:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Jun 10, 2023 - Sun, Jun 11, 2023 D7Tue, Jun 13, 2023 - Wed, Jun 14, 2023
D5Sun, Jun 11, 2023 - Mon, Jun 12, 2023 D8Wed, Jun 14, 2023 - Thu, Jun 15, 2023
D6Mon, Jun 12, 2023 - Tue, Jun 13, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 070858
   SPC AC 070858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Wed Jun 07 2023

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   Medium-range guidance is in reasonably good agreement that a
   low-amplitude shortwave trough will advance eastward from the
   southern High Plains across much of OK/TX on Day 4/Saturday. A
   surface dryline should mix eastward across these same areas through
   the day. Mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints are generally forecast
   ahead of the dryline. Daytime heating of this moist low-level
   airmass, combined with steep mid-level lapse rates, should foster
   the development of at least moderate instability by late Saturday
   afternoon. Even though mid-level flow should not be overly strong,
   sufficient deep-layer shear to support organized multicells and
   perhaps some supercells should be present. Any thunderstorms that
   can form along the dryline, or farther east in the warm sector
   along/south of a developing warm front, should be capable of
   producing large hail and severe wind gusts. Given greater confidence
   in convection occurring, have introduced a 15% severe area for
   Saturday across parts of OK/TX.

   Some severe threat will probably exist on Day 5/Sunday along/south
   of a front from portions of the southern Plains into the lower/mid
   MS Valley and Southeast as an upper trough/low becomes established
   over the Upper Midwest. However, confidence is low in the details of
   robust thunderstorm evolution/placement due to the prior day's
   convection, and its potential to overturn much of the warm sector.
   Although uncertainty remains, it appears increasingly probable that
   some form of an upper trough and related strong mid-level jet will
   impact parts of the southern/central Plains into the lower/mid MS
   Valley and Southeast from Day 6/Monday through Day 8/Wednesday.
   These features will likely overlap an expansive warm sector across
   these regions. Depending on the timing, amplitude, and strength of
   the upper trough, some severe risk will probably exist each day next
   week. Still, too much model spread exists to highlight favored
   corridors of severe potential in this extended time frame.

   ..Gleason.. 06/07/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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