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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 26, 2023
Updated: Tue Sep 26 08:45:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Sep 29, 2023 - Sat, Sep 30, 2023 D7Mon, Oct 02, 2023 - Tue, Oct 03, 2023
D5Sat, Sep 30, 2023 - Sun, Oct 01, 2023 D8Tue, Oct 03, 2023 - Wed, Oct 04, 2023
D6Sun, Oct 01, 2023 - Mon, Oct 02, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 260843
   SPC AC 260843

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Tue Sep 26 2023

   Valid 291200Z - 041200Z

   For most of the day 4-8 period, an upper trough is forecast to
   affect much of the western CONUS, making little progress eastward as
   the trough becomes a large cut-off low over the Great Basin, and an
   upper high remains over the lower MO/mid MS Valley region. 

   A surface high from the Midwest into the Northeast will be a primary
   mitigating factor for severe weather potential, as moisture return
   across the plains will be minimal as a result. Pockets of strong
   instability > 1000-1500 J/kg are forecast to exist primarily over
   the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley, well ahead of the western
   trough. While scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of
   MT eastward across parts of the Dakotas and MN from Friday through
   at least Sunday, neither instability nor shear would appear to favor
   any widespread severe potential, although isolated hail or wind
   reports may occur during this time frame.

   ..Jewell.. 09/26/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 26, 2023
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