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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 22, 2024
Updated: Wed May 22 08:58:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, May 25, 2024 - Sun, May 26, 2024 D7Tue, May 28, 2024 - Wed, May 29, 2024
D5Sun, May 26, 2024 - Mon, May 27, 2024 D8Wed, May 29, 2024 - Thu, May 30, 2024
D6Mon, May 27, 2024 - Tue, May 28, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 220856
   SPC AC 220856

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

   ...Day 4/Sat - Central/Southern Plains to Mid-MS Valley...

   An upper shortwave trough over AZ/NM is forecast to spread eastward
   across the central/southern Plains to the Ozarks vicinity on
   Saturday. As this occurs, southwesterly mid/upper flow will
   increase. Height falls will induce surface cyclogenesis over western
   KS and the OK/TX Panhandles during the daytime. In response, a warm
   front will lift northward across central/eastern OK/KS and much of
   the Mid-MS Valley. A surface dryline will extend south from the
   surface low near the OK/TX border through evening. During the
   nighttime hours, the surface low is forecast to develop
   east/northeast into MO while a cold front overspreads parts of the
   central/southern Plains by Sunday morning. 

   A very moist and unstable airmass will develop over the region as
   the warm front lifts north, allowing for strong destabilization. As
   large-scale ascent and vertical shear increase during the
   afternoon/evening, widespread thunderstorm development is expected.
   Initial supercells appear possible near the dryline and surface low
   over OK/KS. With time, an MCS may develop over part of the region
   and spread east into AR/MO during the evening/overnight hours. All
   severe hazards appear possible at this time, and higher
   probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks as mesoscale
   features become better resolved for highlighting any corridors of
   greater severe risk within the broader region. 

   ...Day 5/Sun - Ozarks to the Mid-MS/Lower OH/TN Valleys...

   A synoptically concerning pattern is evident on Sunday across a
   broad region of the central U.S. The upper trough from the Day 4/Sat
   period will continue to shift east across the Midwest on Sunday.
   This will allow strong mid/upper southwesterly flow to overspread
   the region as a deepening surface low moves from MO toward Lake
   Michigan. Strong to severe thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts
   of MO/the Ozarks vicinity. Ahead of this activity, a rapidly
   moistening boundary layer with upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints is
   expected to envelop much of the Mid-MS/OH/TN Valleys. Strong
   destabilization and favorable vertical shear, along with an
   eastward-progressing cold front will support both supercell storms,
   and possibly a developing QLCS, capable of all hazards. While
   details regarding morning convection and storm mode remain somewhat
   uncertain, higher-end severe potential appears possible with this
   pattern across portions of the region from midday into the nighttime

   ...Days 6-8/Mon-Wed...

   Spread among model guidance increases quite a bit by Monday. Some
   severe potential is possible anywhere from the Southern states to
   the Mid-Atlantic as the upper trough lifts east/northeast. However,
   details regarding storm evolution on Day 5/Sun into early Monday,
   along with differing evolution of the surface pattern by various
   guidance results in low predictability. 

   By Tuesday and Wednesday, an upper ridge is expected to move from
   the western U.S. into the Plains. This should mostly shut down
   severe potential west of the MS River.

   ..Leitman.. 05/22/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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