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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 17, 2024
Updated: Tue Sep 17 08:57:03 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Sep 20, 2024 - Sat, Sep 21, 2024 D7Mon, Sep 23, 2024 - Tue, Sep 24, 2024
D5Sat, Sep 21, 2024 - Sun, Sep 22, 2024 D8Tue, Sep 24, 2024 - Wed, Sep 25, 2024
D6Sun, Sep 22, 2024 - Mon, Sep 23, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 170855
   SPC AC 170855

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

   Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A shortwave trough that amplifies into the Southwest should remain
   positive tilt and slow moving into this weekend. Guidance has
   trended towards greater consistency with the evolution of its 
   attendant belt of enhanced mid-level flow ahead of the trough. Based
   on current timing, a focused corridor of severe potential may
   develop on D5/Saturday afternoon in the southern High Plains. With a
   stout mid-level anticyclone anchored over south TX and 500-mb
   temperatures warmer than -2 C across roughly the southeast
   two-thirds of TX, a potential corridor of 15 percent probabilities
   would likely be confined to the mesoscale. Predictability is too low
   to confidently highlight such a corridor at this temporal scale.
   After D5, predictability on the synoptic scale wanes considerably.
   Guidance spread becomes large with the evolution of northern-stream
   shortwave troughs and their influence on this southern-stream wave.

   ..Grams.. 09/17/2024

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 17, 2024
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