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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 5, 2023
Updated: Mon Jun 5 09:00:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Jun 08, 2023 - Fri, Jun 09, 2023 D7Sun, Jun 11, 2023 - Mon, Jun 12, 2023
D5Fri, Jun 09, 2023 - Sat, Jun 10, 2023 D8Mon, Jun 12, 2023 - Tue, Jun 13, 2023
D6Sat, Jun 10, 2023 - Sun, Jun 11, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 050858
   SPC AC 050858

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 AM CDT Mon Jun 05 2023

   Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

   While isolated severe thunderstorms may occur on Day 4/Thursday
   across parts of the southern High Plains, limited low-level moisture
   and modest deep-layer shear should preclude more a more organized
   risk for severe thunderstorms. There are some indications in
   medium-range guidance that an upper trough/low over the western
   CONUS will slowly advance eastward and help erode persistent upper
   ridging over the central states from this upcoming weekend into
   early next week. Mid-level west-southwesterly flow is also forecast
   to gradually strengthen across parts of the southern/central Plains
   in this time frame. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms
   should gradually increase from Day 5/Friday onward across these
   areas as deep-layer shear strengthens, and low-level moisture and
   related instability gradually increase. But, the timing and
   placement of possible shortwave trough ejection over the
   southern/central Plains remains uncertain, leading to low

   ..Gleason.. 06/05/2023


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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