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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Apr 27, 2025
Updated: Sun Apr 27 07:24:02 UTC 2025
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Wed, Apr 30, 2025 - Thu, May 01, 2025 D7Sat, May 03, 2025 - Sun, May 04, 2025
D5Thu, May 01, 2025 - Fri, May 02, 2025 D8Sun, May 04, 2025 - Mon, May 05, 2025
D6Fri, May 02, 2025 - Sat, May 03, 2025 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 270721
   SPC AC 270721

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Sun Apr 27 2025

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Day 4/Wednesday - North Central to Northeast Texas...
   A mid-level trough will eject across the southern Plains on Day
   4/Wednesday. Forecast guidance still shows some timing difference
   which affect the location of the surface low and thus the region of
   the greatest severe weather threat. However, at this time, the area
   along and south of the Red River to east-central Texas remains the
   most likely location to receive some severe weather regardless of
   the exact solution. 

   Moderate instability and an uncapped environment will support storm
   development during the day on Wednesday. At this time, it appears
   widespread convection amid a very moist profile could result in HP
   storms in close proximity with eventual growth into a MCS. Forecast
   soundings show favorable low-level shear which would support some
   tornado threat. However, the aforementioned storm mode concerns
   could limit this threat despite the favorable wind profile. 

   ...Day 5/Thursday - Mid Mississippi Valley...
   As a mid-level trough advances from the southern Plains to the Great
   Lakes on Thursday, a surface low will also develop and continue
   northeast. The strength and location of this surface low are
   uncertain at this time due to differing evolution of the mid-level
   pattern. Warm-sector destabilization also remains highly variable.
   If a solution such as the GFS solution verifies, then a greater
   severe weather threat will likely exist across parts of Tennessee
   and northern AL/MS into parts of the Ohio Valley. However, if the
   ECMWF instability verifies, the likelihood of widespread severe
   weather goes down significantly. No probabilities have been added
   for Day 5 yet, but if details become more clear and favorable,
   probabilities may eventually be needed.

   ..Bentley.. 04/27/2025

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: April 27, 2025
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