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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 8, 2023
Updated: Wed Feb 8 09:58:03 UTC 2023
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Feb 11, 2023 - Sun, Feb 12, 2023 D7Tue, Feb 14, 2023 - Wed, Feb 15, 2023
D5Sun, Feb 12, 2023 - Mon, Feb 13, 2023 D8Wed, Feb 15, 2023 - Thu, Feb 16, 2023
D6Mon, Feb 13, 2023 - Tue, Feb 14, 2023 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 080956
   SPC AC 080956

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0356 AM CST Wed Feb 08 2023

   Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ...Days 4-5 Saturday/Sunday...
   Little if any severe-weather potential is currently expected.

   ...Days 6-7 Monday/Tuesday...
   Related to the probable east/northeastward advancement of a
   low-latitude upper-level trough early next week, at least some
   severe-weather potential could begin to increase by around Monday
   across the southern tier of the CONUS. After a late-week frontal
   intrusion across the Gulf of Mexico, the primary uncertainty is the
   timing/quality of air mass modification and low-level moistening
   early next week over the Gulf of Mexico. Most global guidance has
   trended slower/less moist inland across Texas and the Lower
   Mississippi Valley early next week. Regardless, some severe risk
   could occur as early as Monday across south-central, and more so,
   southeast Texas. The severe potential may expand eastward on Tuesday
   to potentially include the middle Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi
   Valley.

   ..Guyer.. 02/08/2023

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 08, 2023
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