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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 4, 2022
Updated: Mon Jul 4 09:01:03 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Thu, Jul 07, 2022 - Fri, Jul 08, 2022 D7Sun, Jul 10, 2022 - Mon, Jul 11, 2022
D5Fri, Jul 08, 2022 - Sat, Jul 09, 2022 D8Mon, Jul 11, 2022 - Tue, Jul 12, 2022
D6Sat, Jul 09, 2022 - Sun, Jul 10, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 040859
   SPC AC 040859

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 AM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022

   Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

   Large-scale upper ridging should gradually amplify across much of
   the High Plains, Rockies, and central Canada from Day 4/Thursday
   into Day 5/Friday. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to remain
   over much of the northern Plains into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and
   eastern states to the south of a front in this time frame. Robust
   thunderstorm development may occur across parts of these regions
   each afternoon/evening as strong instability develops with daytime
   heating. Greater severe potential should be tied to weak,
   low-amplitude shortwave troughs which will traverse the apex of the
   ridge and then proceed generally east-southeastward. The
   placement/evolution of these features, some of which should be
   convectively induced/augmented, remains difficult at this extended
   time frame. Even though predictability remains low, some severe
   probabilities should eventually be needed across parts of the
   northern Rockies/Plains, Midwest, OH Valley, and perhaps parts of
   the Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas on both Thursday and Friday once
   mesoscale details become clearer.

   Medium-range guidance is coming into better agreement that an
   amplified shortwave trough may progress east-northeastward across
   the Pacific Northwest, northern Rockies/Plains, and central Canada
   this upcoming weekend. This feature should suppress the upper ridge
   to some extent, with surface cyclogenesis possible across some
   portion of the northern Plains into Canada. An organized severe
   thunderstorm episode may occur as the shortwave trough moves across
   these regions from Day 6/Saturday into Day 7/Sunday. If the timing
   and evolution of this feature remain consistent in guidance, then
   15% severe areas may eventually be needed for both days across some
   portion of the northern Plains and perhaps the Upper Midwest.

   ..Gleason.. 07/04/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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