(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 140855
SPC AC 140855
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Rich low-level moisture should remained confined along/south of a
front across the Southeast on Day 4/Wednesday. Thunderstorms should
occur across this region during the afternoon, but modest mid-level
flow on the southern extent of an upper trough should keep any
severe threat rather marginal/isolated. Upper ridging should
continue to dominate the western CONUS through late this week. A
shortwave trough may advance southward over portions of the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest on Day 5/Thursday, but both low-level
moisture and instability are forecast to remain limited across these
areas. The potential for organized severe thunderstorms from Day
6/Friday onward also appears generally low, with upper ridging
persisting over the western/central states, and upper troughing over
the eastern CONUS.
..Gleason.. 08/14/2022
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