(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 280818
SPC AC 280818
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Sep 28 2022
Valid 011200Z - 061200Z
...DISCUSSION...
On D4/Saturday, Ian is forecast to weaken into a post-tropical low
as it moves into the southern Appalachian region (see NHC advisories
and forecasts for more information regarding Ian). Low/midlevel flow
to the east of Ian's decaying circulation may remain sufficiently
strong to support isolated damaging wind gusts and/or a brief
tornado from eastern NC into the Tidewater region.
For the rest of the extended range, the threat for organized severe
thunderstorms appears low. In the wake of Ian, northerly low-level
flow across the Southeast and Gulf of Mexico will limit moisture
return through early/middle next week, resulting in generally dry
and stable conditions for most areas east of the Rockies.
..Dean.. 09/28/2022
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