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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 25, 2024
Updated: Sat May 25 08:45:02 UTC 2024
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Tue, May 28, 2024 - Wed, May 29, 2024 D7Fri, May 31, 2024 - Sat, Jun 01, 2024
D5Wed, May 29, 2024 - Thu, May 30, 2024 D8Sat, Jun 01, 2024 - Sun, Jun 02, 2024
D6Thu, May 30, 2024 - Fri, May 31, 2024 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 250843
   SPC AC 250843

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0343 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

   Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

   Downstream of initially modestly amplified flow across the northern
   mid-latitude Pacific into western North America, large-scale
   mid-level troughing across and east of the Mississippi Valley may
   continue to slowly shift eastward through the middle to latter
   portion of next week.  Ensemble output suggests that this regime
   will remain progressive, but the evolution of the flow remains
   uncertain, particularly across the Northwest and northern Rockies
   into northern Great Plains.  

   In lower latitudes, guidance suggests that ridging may build along
   an axis to the north-northeast of a subtropical high over central
   Mexico, perhaps as far as the southeastern Great Plains and lower
   Mississippi Valley by early next weekend.  However, an initial
   perturbation progressing around the crest of the ridging as early as
   Tuesday could contribute strong thunderstorm development across
   parts of eastern New Mexico into western Texas, where the boundary
   layer may remain seasonably moist in the presence of steep lapse

   Low-level moisture return northward into the lee of the northern
   Rockies may remain marginal for severe thunderstorm development, as
   forcing for ascent associated with troughing migrating inland of the
   Pacific coast spreads across and east of the northern Rockies on

   ..Kerr.. 05/25/2024


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 25, 2024
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