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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 30, 2021
Updated: Tue Nov 30 08:22:03 UTC 2021
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Fri, Dec 03, 2021 - Sat, Dec 04, 2021 D7Mon, Dec 06, 2021 - Tue, Dec 07, 2021
D5Sat, Dec 04, 2021 - Sun, Dec 05, 2021 D8Tue, Dec 07, 2021 - Wed, Dec 08, 2021
D6Sun, Dec 05, 2021 - Mon, Dec 06, 2021 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 300820
   SPC AC 300820

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0220 AM CST Tue Nov 30 2021

   Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

   Medium-range model output indicates that a substantially more
   amplified/blocked regime may evolve across the southern mid-latitude
   and subtropical eastern Pacific into southwestern portions of North
   America, including a large-scale trough and/or developing closed low
   near Baja early next week.  However, there might not be significant
   change to the northern mid-latitude westerlies, with strong flow
   persisting through much of the period in a broadly anticyclonic belt
   across the eastern Pacific into the northern U.S. Great Plains,
   before transitioning to broadly cyclonic east of the Mississippi
   Valley.  Although a couple of strengthening short wave perturbations
   progressing through this regime might be accompanied by thunderstorm
   development across parts of the south central U.S., it appears that
   trailing reinforcing intrusions of cool and/or dry air will preclude
   deep boundary-layer moistening over much of the Gulf of Mexico. 
   This seems likely to continue to negate, or at least temper, the
   risk for severe weather.

   ..Kerr.. 11/30/2021


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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