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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 7, 2022
Updated: Wed Dec 7 10:09:02 UTC 2022
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

D4Sat, Dec 10, 2022 - Sun, Dec 11, 2022 D7Tue, Dec 13, 2022 - Wed, Dec 14, 2022
D5Sun, Dec 11, 2022 - Mon, Dec 12, 2022 D8Wed, Dec 14, 2022 - Thu, Dec 15, 2022
D6Mon, Dec 12, 2022 - Tue, Dec 13, 2022 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 071007
   SPC AC 071007

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0407 AM CST Wed Dec 07 2022

   Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

   A increase in divergence of solutions amongst medium-range models,
   and an increase in ensemble spread, is noted as compared to 24 hours
   prior, along with a general slowing of the advance of the western
   U.S. trough.

   In general, models forecast a very gradual amplification of the flow
   field Days 4-5 and into Day 6, as short-wave energy digs
   south-southeastward in the vicinity of the western North America
   Coast Day 4/Saturday, and then begins to pivot a bit more
   southeastward into the western U.S. Day 5/Sunday.

   On Day 6/Monday, a more eastward advance of a large closed low will
   commence, with pronounced height falls reaching the central and
   southern Plains -- particularly through the evening/overnight hours.
    This eastward advance appears likely to be accompanied by strong
   central High Plains cyclogenesis, with a cold front to advance into
   (GFS) or across (ECMWF) the southern Plains region through the
   second half of the period.  Based on this current pace of advance of
   the synoptic features, most of the severe risk Monday would appear
   to exist after dark, spreading across parts of eastern Oklahoma and
   North Texas, and possibly (per the ECMWF) into western Arkansas. 
   Given favorable northward advection of high theta-e air, and very
   strong deep-layer shear, all-hazards severe potential would be

   Continued advance, and additional deepening, of the upper low is
   expected Tuesday/Day 7, with the surface low progged to occlude over
   the central Plains and a cold front to sweep eastward to the Mid
   Mississippi Valley region after dark.  With a moist warm sector
   likely to reside across East Texas/Arkansas/Louisiana in this
   scenario, and given the very strong wind field accompanying the
   intensifying synoptic features, all-hazards severe risk including
   tornado potential would exist.

   By Day 8, model differences increase, casting additional uncertainty
   into the forecast.  With that said, it does appear that much more
   limited moisture/instability will exist ahead of the system -- in
   part due to a strong antecedent ridge of surface high pressure.  As
   such, a diminished severe risk would appear to exist for Day 8.

   ..Goss.. 12/07/2022


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: December 07, 2022
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