Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 132051
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021
Valid 151200Z - 211200Z
A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest this weekend before
ejecting into the Southern Plains Day 5/Monday. Some dry and breezy
conditions will accompany the passage of this trough across portions
of the Lower Colorado River Basin. Medium range guidance diverges
considerably in solutions in the Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday period.
The ECMWF depicts a second, well-defined upper trough deepening
across the Interior West while the GFS only shows broad, weak
cyclonic flow aloft prevailing over the western CONUS. The major
differences in the medium range guidance renders confidence too low
to delineate Critical fire weather conditions probabilities in the
Days 6-8 time frame.
...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Southwest...
As the upper trough slowly migrates eastward across the Lower
Colorado River basin (Day 3/Saturday) towards the southern High
Plains (by Day 5/Monday), dry and breezy conditions are expected
each day across the Southwest. Modest flow aloft overspreading a
deep, dry boundary layer, along with localized downslope flow, will
both contribute to at least Elevated criteria surface winds/RH
Saturday-Monday afternoons. 40% Critical probabilities have been
delineated where the highest chance in widespread Elevated
conditions exist, and where at least locally Critical conditions are
...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday - central California...
Though guidance consensus shows significant differences in the upper
pattern west of the Rockies, there is agreement among medium range
members in westerly modest upper flow prevailing across central
California during the middle of next week. Some of this stronger
flow aloft, along with downslope flow, may promote dry and breezy
conditions atop receptive fuels across southern portions of the
Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin valley each afternoon.
However, more guidance agreement in the upper pattern as well as
consistency are needed before critical probabilities may be
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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