ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 132051

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CDT Thu May 13 2021

   Valid 151200Z - 211200Z

   A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest this weekend before
   ejecting into the Southern Plains Day 5/Monday. Some dry and breezy
   conditions will accompany the passage of this trough across portions
   of the Lower Colorado River Basin. Medium range guidance diverges
   considerably in solutions in the Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday period.
   The ECMWF depicts a second, well-defined upper trough deepening
   across the Interior West while the GFS only shows broad, weak
   cyclonic flow aloft prevailing over the western CONUS. The major
   differences in the medium range guidance renders confidence too low
   to delineate Critical fire weather conditions probabilities in the
   Days 6-8 time frame.

   ...Days 3-5/Saturday-Monday - Southwest...
   As the upper trough slowly migrates eastward across the Lower
   Colorado River basin (Day 3/Saturday) towards the southern High
   Plains (by Day 5/Monday), dry and breezy conditions are expected
   each day across the Southwest. Modest flow aloft overspreading a
   deep, dry boundary layer, along with localized downslope flow, will
   both contribute to at least Elevated criteria surface winds/RH
   Saturday-Monday afternoons. 40% Critical probabilities have been
   delineated where the highest chance in widespread Elevated
   conditions exist, and where at least locally Critical conditions are
   most likely. 

   ...Days 6-8/Tuesday-Thursday - central California...
   Though guidance consensus shows significant differences in the upper
   pattern west of the Rockies, there is agreement among medium range
   members in westerly modest upper flow prevailing across central
   California during the middle of next week. Some of this stronger
   flow aloft, along with downslope flow, may promote dry and breezy
   conditions atop receptive fuels across southern portions of the
   Sacramento Valley into the San Joaquin valley each afternoon.
   However, more guidance agreement in the upper pattern as well as
   consistency are needed before critical probabilities may be
   confidently delineated.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/13/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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