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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 16, 2019
Updated: Sat Feb 16 21:52:03 UTC 2019  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Feb 18, 2019 - Tue, Feb 19, 2019 D6Thu, Feb 21, 2019 - Fri, Feb 22, 2019
D4Tue, Feb 19, 2019 - Wed, Feb 20, 2019 D7Fri, Feb 22, 2019 - Sat, Feb 23, 2019
D5Wed, Feb 20, 2019 - Thu, Feb 21, 2019 D8Sat, Feb 23, 2019 - Sun, Feb 24, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0350 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   The upper-level pattern will amplify with a deep trough over the
   western CONUS with the Bermuda High building into the Southeast on
   Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. This longwave pattern should remain
   intact until late next week/weekend. An upper-level shortwave trough
   will eject out of the West and move east-northeast across the Plains
   and into the Great Lakes region on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday.
   Cool/cold temperatures and precipitation will fall across much of
   the CONUS during the outlook period helping to temper the fire
   weather threat. 

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of West Texas...
   Amid a dry, post-frontal airmass, downslope flow/lee troughing will
   result in possibly critical conditions (sustained west-southwest
   winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 8-20%) on Day 3/Monday across
   western portions of the Trans-Pecos and southern New Mexico. As a
   shortwave trough moves across the Intermountain West, strong
   mid-level flow (65-95 knots) will overspread the southern High
   Plains again on Day 4/Tuesday. However, the strongest downslope
   flow/lee troughing will be farther south into northern Mexico east
   of the Sierra Madre Oriental with critical conditions (westerly
   sustained winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 5-20%) possibly
   developing in the Big Bend region as a result. Critical conditions
   developing on these days hinge on the ability of downslope flow/lee
   troughing to heat/dry out the boundary layer in the cool/cold
   airmass after the frontal passage over the weekend.

   ...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern High Plains...
   Dry/windy conditions may return to the southern High Plains late
   next week/weekend as another upper-level trough moves over the
   Intermountain West. However, there remains enough uncertainty
   regarding the timing/location of the trough to preclude
   probabilities of critical conditions at this time.

   ..Nauslar.. 02/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 16, 2019
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