Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 26, 2021
Updated: Tue Oct 26 20:01:03 UTC 2021  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 22,950 166,313 Altus, OK...Vernon, TX...
D3Thu, Oct 28, 2021 - Fri, Oct 29, 2021 D6Sun, Oct 31, 2021 - Mon, Nov 01, 2021
D4Fri, Oct 29, 2021 - Sat, Oct 30, 2021 D7Mon, Nov 01, 2021 - Tue, Nov 02, 2021
D5Sat, Oct 30, 2021 - Sun, Oct 31, 2021 D8Tue, Nov 02, 2021 - Wed, Nov 03, 2021
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 261957

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   A highly amplified mid-level trough positioned over the central
   CONUS will shift east and develop into a closed upper-level low by
   D4/Fri and D5/Sat. A predominantly zonal flow pattern should take
   effect thereafter across the western/central CONUS, with perhaps a
   ridge building into the West by the end of the forecast period. At
   the surface, a cold front will continue to advance eastward across
   the southeast by the weekend, with cooler and drier conditions
   prevailing across the Western/Central CONUS.

   ...D3/Thurs: Southern High Plains...
   The closed upper-level low to the East will allow a strong mid-level
   jet streak to be situated over the region on D3/Thurs, resulting in
   enhanced northerly mid-level flow. Despite cooler conditions behind
   the cold front, the residual dry airmass, characterized by dew point
   temperatures in the 20s F, combined with diurnal heating/mixing
   should be enough to foster RH values into at least the low 20s
   during the afternoon, and likely below 15% in some areas. Given the
   flow regime aloft, diurnally driven momentum transfer will result in
   sustained northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph at the surface, with
   gusts exceeding 45-50 mph. Fine fuels should remain receptive to
   large-fire spread, particularly in areas that remain west of the dry
   line on D1/Tues.

   An area delineating 70% probabilities of critical fire-weather
   conditions has been introduced for far western Oklahoma and the
   eastern Texas panhandle into portions of northwest Texas. This
   appears to be the mostly likely area where RH values will fall below
   15% during the afternoon. Otherwise, the 40% probabilities have been
   expanded slightly east and southeast, where strong winds will likely
   compensate for higher RH values.

   Thereafter, fire-weather concerns remain low. Perhaps localized
   elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Southern Plains
   on D4/Fri. However, surface winds are projected to remain below
   critical thresholds in most areas at this time.

   ..Karstens.. 10/26/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: October 26, 2021
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities