Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 16, 2019
Updated: Sat Feb 16 21:52:03 UTC 2019 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
The upper-level pattern will amplify with a deep trough over the
western CONUS with the Bermuda High building into the Southeast on
Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. This longwave pattern should remain
intact until late next week/weekend. An upper-level shortwave trough
will eject out of the West and move east-northeast across the Plains
and into the Great Lakes region on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday.
Cool/cold temperatures and precipitation will fall across much of
the CONUS during the outlook period helping to temper the fire
weather threat.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of West Texas...
Amid a dry, post-frontal airmass, downslope flow/lee troughing will
result in possibly critical conditions (sustained west-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 8-20%) on Day 3/Monday across
western portions of the Trans-Pecos and southern New Mexico. As a
shortwave trough moves across the Intermountain West, strong
mid-level flow (65-95 knots) will overspread the southern High
Plains again on Day 4/Tuesday. However, the strongest downslope
flow/lee troughing will be farther south into northern Mexico east
of the Sierra Madre Oriental with critical conditions (westerly
sustained winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 5-20%) possibly
developing in the Big Bend region as a result. Critical conditions
developing on these days hinge on the ability of downslope flow/lee
troughing to heat/dry out the boundary layer in the cool/cold
airmass after the frontal passage over the weekend.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern High Plains...
Dry/windy conditions may return to the southern High Plains late
next week/weekend as another upper-level trough moves over the
Intermountain West. However, there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the timing/location of the trough to preclude
probabilities of critical conditions at this time.
..Nauslar.. 02/16/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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