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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 19, 2018
Updated: Thu Jul 19 21:52:02 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Sat, Jul 21, 2018 - Sun, Jul 22, 2018 D6Tue, Jul 24, 2018 - Wed, Jul 25, 2018
D4Sun, Jul 22, 2018 - Mon, Jul 23, 2018 D7Wed, Jul 25, 2018 - Thu, Jul 26, 2018
D5Mon, Jul 23, 2018 - Tue, Jul 24, 2018 D8Thu, Jul 26, 2018 - Fri, Jul 27, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 192150

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0450 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 271200Z

   An upper trough/low will progress eastward across the Pacific
   Northwest, northern Rockies, and western Canadian provinces from Day
   3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. Large-scale upper ridging is forecast
   to build across much of the western CONUS from Day 5/Monday into at
   least the middle of next week. Primary fire weather concern through
   much of the forecast period will be dry thunderstorm potential
   across parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and Pacific
   Northwest, which will likely remain on the northern periphery of
   deep, monsoonal moisture.

   ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Portions of the Northern Great
   Basin/Rockies and Pacific Northwest...
   A focused area of strong/gusty downslope winds should develop
   Saturday afternoon across northern MT as enhanced mid-level winds
   reach the surface through diurnal mixing processes. Related
   low-level warming/drying from downslope effects will combine with
   these winds and dry fine fuels to support at least some threat for
   large fire starts. The lack of even stronger forecast winds
   precludes a 70%/critical area at this time.

   A 10%/isolated area for dry thunderstorms has been maintained with
   some adjustments for Day 3/Saturday from northern CA into parts of
   the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. These areas are
   forecast to remain generally north of deeper moisture associated
   with the Southwest monsoon. Marginal precipitable water values, at
   least modestly enhanced mid-level flow, and receptive fuels should
   contribute to the potential for some new fire starts from lightning
   strikes with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms.

   A 10%/isolated delineation has also been introduced across parts of
   northern CA into southern OR for Day 4/Sunday. A subtle disturbance
   on the western periphery on the previously mentioned upper ridge may
   combine with orogrpahic lift and increasing mid-level moisture to
   initiate isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Some of these
   storms may produce little wetting rainfall.

   The potential may exist for isolated dry thunderstorms to persist
   across some portion the Pacific Northwest into Day 5/Monday.
   However, model differences and uncertainty regarding this
   possibility remain too great to include any 10%/isolated delineation
   for now.

   ..Gleason.. 07/19/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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