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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 15, 2018
Updated: Sat Dec 15 21:19:02 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Dec 17, 2018 - Tue, Dec 18, 2018 D6Thu, Dec 20, 2018 - Fri, Dec 21, 2018
D4Tue, Dec 18, 2018 - Wed, Dec 19, 2018 D7Fri, Dec 21, 2018 - Sat, Dec 22, 2018
D5Wed, Dec 19, 2018 - Thu, Dec 20, 2018 D8Sat, Dec 22, 2018 - Sun, Dec 23, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152117

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0317 PM CST Sat Dec 15 2018

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   Weak flow across most of the CONUS will alleviate fire weather
   concerns for the first part of next week. Fire weather concerns will
   increase on Wednesday in the central High Plains as a strong
   mid-level jet digs across the Rockies. As this jet digs further,
   critical fire weather conditions will be possible further east into
   the Texas panhandle and western Oklahoma. Several shortwaves
   crossing the Rockies may increase the chance for downslope winds on
   Friday and into next weekend, but there is not a strong enough
   signal, or enough model agreement to add probabilities for any areas
   beyond Thursday.

   ...D5/Wednesday - Southeastern Colorado...
   A strong mid-level jet will traverse the Rockies on D5/Wednesday.
   This will lead to downslope winds in much of eastern Colorado. These
   downslope winds will likely reach critical strength in most of
   eastern Colorado, but relative humidities may come up short of
   critical dryness. Therefore, have introduced probabilities, but have
   kept the probabilities at 40 percent at this time.

   ...D4/Thursday - Eastern TX and OK panhandles into western Oklahoma
   and portions of far southern Kansas....
   Downslope winds will be aided by a strengthening north northwesterly
   low-level jet on Friday. Therefore, as mixing strengthens during the
   afternoon, winds are expected to increase to critical or near
   critical strength in the eastern Texas and Oklahoma panhandles and
   western Oklahoma. Relative humidities will likely be similar to
   D5/Wednesday in the borderline critical range. Have added 40 percent
   probabilities for D5/Thursday to cover the potential for critical
   fire weather conditions.

   ..Bentley.. 12/15/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: December 15, 2018
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