Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 16, 2025
Updated: Sun Feb 16 21:14:02 UTC 2025 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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PDF. Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162110
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a
longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a
strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on
D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest
US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon
with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft
in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th
percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across
portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western
Texas.
Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will
become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which
should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain
of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level
shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus
for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially
D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across
portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for
the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue
to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether
the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on
either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.
..Supinie.. 02/16/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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