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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 16, 2025
Updated: Sun Feb 16 21:14:02 UTC 2025  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Feb 18, 2025 - Wed, Feb 19, 2025 D6Fri, Feb 21, 2025 - Sat, Feb 22, 2025
D4Wed, Feb 19, 2025 - Thu, Feb 20, 2025 D7Sat, Feb 22, 2025 - Sun, Feb 23, 2025
D5Thu, Feb 20, 2025 - Fri, Feb 21, 2025 D8Sun, Feb 23, 2025 - Mon, Feb 24, 2025
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162110

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0310 PM CST Sun Feb 16 2025

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   The mid-level pattern this coming week should be dominated by a
   longwave trough over the eastern part of the US, resulting in a
   strong cold front pushing southward across the central US on
   D3/Tuesday. Ahead of this front, across portions of the southwest
   US, some dry, windy conditions may be present on Tuesday afternoon
   with surface heating mixing down stronger westerly winds from aloft
   in the presence of reasonably dry fuels (ERCs in the 75th to 90th
   percentile range). As such, have maintained the 40% area across
   portions of southeastern Arizona, southern New Mexico, and western
   Texas.

   Behind the aforementioned strong cold front, an arctic air mass will
   become entrenched across the central and southern High Plains, which
   should largely confine fire weather concerns to the elevated terrain
   of southwestern US for the remainder of the period. A mid-level
   shortwave trough passage later in the week may provide the impetus
   for further fire weather concerns on D5/Thursday and especially
   D6/Friday, with dry and windy conditions possible both days across
   portions of New Mexico and Arizona. No precipitation is expected for
   the duration of the period, so fuels in this region should continue
   to be receptive to fire spread. However, lack of confidence whether
   the strength of the surface flow will rise to critical thresholds on
   either day precludes the introduction of probabilities at this time.

   ..Supinie.. 02/16/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 16, 2025
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