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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 23, 2023
Updated: Sat Sep 23 21:11:02 UTC 2023  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Sep 25, 2023 - Tue, Sep 26, 2023 D6Thu, Sep 28, 2023 - Fri, Sep 29, 2023
D4Tue, Sep 26, 2023 - Wed, Sep 27, 2023 D7Fri, Sep 29, 2023 - Sat, Sep 30, 2023
D5Wed, Sep 27, 2023 - Thu, Sep 28, 2023 D8Sat, Sep 30, 2023 - Sun, Oct 01, 2023
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 232107

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0407 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

   Valid 251200Z - 011200Z

   A deepening trough across the western US will result in
   amplification of an eastward shifting ridge across the
   central/eastern US early next week. Cooler conditions, increasing
   relative humidity, and potential for widespread wetting rainfall is
   expected across much of the Pacific Northwest. Windy and dry
   conditions will be possible across the Great Basin and Northern
   Rockies, where little to no rainfall is expected. Beyond mid-week,
   breezy conditions may continue as persistent troughing brings waves
   of stronger mid-level flow across the west.

   ...Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
   An increase in south to southwest winds is expected for D3 - Monday
   across the Great Basin in response to increasing mid-level flow
   overspreading the region. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to
   15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across northern
   Nevada, southeastward Oregon, and southwestern Idaho. Marginal fuels
   within this region will preclude the need to include Critical
   probabilities, though Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as
   further drying of fuels occurs with forecast strong winds. Lingering
   dry conditions will be possible on D4 - Tuesday, but winds will be
   much lighter mitigating the fire weather risk.

   For the extended period, models suggest continued troughing across
   the west will bring cool and wet conditions across the Pacific
   Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Further drying
   will be likely across the southwest, with potential for breezy
   conditions. Overall, confidence is low in where any dry/breezy
   conditions will overlap receptive fuels along with potential for
   wetting rainfall.

   ..Thornton.. 09/23/2023

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 23, 2023
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