Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0350 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
The upper-level pattern will amplify with a deep trough over the
western CONUS with the Bermuda High building into the Southeast on
Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday. This longwave pattern should remain
intact until late next week/weekend. An upper-level shortwave trough
will eject out of the West and move east-northeast across the Plains
and into the Great Lakes region on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday.
Cool/cold temperatures and precipitation will fall across much of
the CONUS during the outlook period helping to temper the fire
...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of West Texas...
Amid a dry, post-frontal airmass, downslope flow/lee troughing will
result in possibly critical conditions (sustained west-southwest
winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 8-20%) on Day 3/Monday across
western portions of the Trans-Pecos and southern New Mexico. As a
shortwave trough moves across the Intermountain West, strong
mid-level flow (65-95 knots) will overspread the southern High
Plains again on Day 4/Tuesday. However, the strongest downslope
flow/lee troughing will be farther south into northern Mexico east
of the Sierra Madre Oriental with critical conditions (westerly
sustained winds of 15-20 mph, RH values of 5-20%) possibly
developing in the Big Bend region as a result. Critical conditions
developing on these days hinge on the ability of downslope flow/lee
troughing to heat/dry out the boundary layer in the cool/cold
airmass after the frontal passage over the weekend.
...Day 6/Thursday - Day 8/Saturday: Southern High Plains...
Dry/windy conditions may return to the southern High Plains late
next week/weekend as another upper-level trough moves over the
Intermountain West. However, there remains enough uncertainty
regarding the timing/location of the trough to preclude
probabilities of critical conditions at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT