Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 4, 2022
Updated: Mon Jul 4 20:57:03 UTC 2022 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 042053
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Jul 04 2022
Valid 061200Z - 121200Z
An expansive large-scale ridge will remain centered over the central
CONUS including the Rockies for much of the extended period, while
broad midlevel troughing persists over the eastern Pacific into the
West Coast. Between these features, moderate southwesterly flow
aloft will overspread the western states, with the strongest flow
confined to the Pacific Northwest -- where fuels are generally
unsupportive of large fire-spread. However, fuels across much of the
Great Basin are critically dry, and modest deep-layer southwesterly
flow amid hot/dry boundary-layer conditions could result in elevated
fire-weather conditions each afternoon. These conditions could also
spread northeastward into parts of WY, where fuels continue to dry
out.
While considerable model disagreement is evident regarding the
potential evolution of a midlevel shortwave trough over the northern
portion of the Intermountain West between Days 5-7/Friday-Sunday,
this feature could support a slight uptick in surface winds over
parts of the Great Basin into the central Rockies during this time
frame. With that said, large global ensemble spreads during this
period cast uncertainty on where/when the overall fire-weather
threat will be maximized -- precluding Critical probabilities at
this time.
Over the southern Plains, continued above-average temperatures
beneath the ridge will favor hot/dry conditions and drying of fine
fuels. These hot/dry conditions, coupled with breezy southerly
surface winds aided by lee troughing could result in locally
elevated conditions along and west of the I-35 corridor in TX/OK
each afternoon. Currently, the development of critical conditions is
not expected, so no probabilities have been added.
..Weinman.. 07/04/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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