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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 21, 2018
Updated: Sat Jul 21 21:58:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Mon, Jul 23, 2018 - Tue, Jul 24, 2018 D6Thu, Jul 26, 2018 - Fri, Jul 27, 2018
D4Tue, Jul 24, 2018 - Wed, Jul 25, 2018 D7Fri, Jul 27, 2018 - Sat, Jul 28, 2018
D5Wed, Jul 25, 2018 - Thu, Jul 26, 2018 D8Sat, Jul 28, 2018 - Sun, Jul 29, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212156

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   Upper ridging should remain over a majority of the western U.S.
   through much of the upcoming week. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
   is forecast to remain confined to mainly the northern tier of the
   northwest/north-central states. Primary fire weather concern through
   the extended forecast period remains dry thunderstorm potential
   across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of the Pacific Northwest
   and Northern Great Basin...
   Mid-level moisture on the western/northern extent of the upper ridge
   should remain over northern CA, southern OR, and the northern Great
   Basin. Although large-scale forcing is forecast to remain
   weak/nebulous, terrain influences coupled with diurnal heating may
   be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms across these areas on
   both Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. Have maintained the
   10%/isolated area for dry thunderstorm potential on Day 3/Monday
   with some modifications based on latest guidance. A 10%/isolated
   delineation was also made for Day 4/Tuesday across a similar area as
   the overall synoptic pattern appears relatively unchanged from Day
   3/Monday.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Portions of Coastal Southern CA...
   Offshore winds may modestly strengthen across parts of coastal
   southern CA through the early to middle portions of the upcoming
   week as the previously mentioned upper ridge builds over this area.
   Forecast surface pressure gradient appears strongest across the
   Santa Barbara Coast/Mountains from Tuesday afternoon through at
   least Thursday morning. Locally gusty Sundowner winds may occur each
   evening across this region in combination with lowered RH values and
   dry fuels. For now, substantial model differences remain regarding
   the strength of the pressure gradient. Therefore, no probabilities
   have been included for possible critical fire conditions.

   ..Gleason.. 07/21/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: July 21, 2018
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