ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 261957

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0257 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021

   Valid 281200Z - 031200Z

   A highly amplified mid-level trough positioned over the central
   CONUS will shift east and develop into a closed upper-level low by
   D4/Fri and D5/Sat. A predominantly zonal flow pattern should take
   effect thereafter across the western/central CONUS, with perhaps a
   ridge building into the West by the end of the forecast period. At
   the surface, a cold front will continue to advance eastward across
   the southeast by the weekend, with cooler and drier conditions
   prevailing across the Western/Central CONUS.

   ...D3/Thurs: Southern High Plains...
   The closed upper-level low to the East will allow a strong mid-level
   jet streak to be situated over the region on D3/Thurs, resulting in
   enhanced northerly mid-level flow. Despite cooler conditions behind
   the cold front, the residual dry airmass, characterized by dew point
   temperatures in the 20s F, combined with diurnal heating/mixing
   should be enough to foster RH values into at least the low 20s
   during the afternoon, and likely below 15% in some areas. Given the
   flow regime aloft, diurnally driven momentum transfer will result in
   sustained northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph at the surface, with
   gusts exceeding 45-50 mph. Fine fuels should remain receptive to
   large-fire spread, particularly in areas that remain west of the dry
   line on D1/Tues.

   An area delineating 70% probabilities of critical fire-weather
   conditions has been introduced for far western Oklahoma and the
   eastern Texas panhandle into portions of northwest Texas. This
   appears to be the mostly likely area where RH values will fall below
   15% during the afternoon. Otherwise, the 40% probabilities have been
   expanded slightly east and southeast, where strong winds will likely
   compensate for higher RH values.

   Thereafter, fire-weather concerns remain low. Perhaps localized
   elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Southern Plains
   on D4/Fri. However, surface winds are projected to remain below
   critical thresholds in most areas at this time.

   ..Karstens.. 10/26/2021

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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