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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 192150
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0450 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018
Valid 211200Z - 271200Z
An upper trough/low will progress eastward across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Rockies, and western Canadian provinces from Day
3/Saturday into Day 4/Sunday. Large-scale upper ridging is forecast
to build across much of the western CONUS from Day 5/Monday into at
least the middle of next week. Primary fire weather concern through
much of the forecast period will be dry thunderstorm potential
across parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and Pacific
Northwest, which will likely remain on the northern periphery of
deep, monsoonal moisture.
...Day 3/Saturday - Day 5/Monday: Portions of the Northern Great
Basin/Rockies and Pacific Northwest...
A focused area of strong/gusty downslope winds should develop
Saturday afternoon across northern MT as enhanced mid-level winds
reach the surface through diurnal mixing processes. Related
low-level warming/drying from downslope effects will combine with
these winds and dry fine fuels to support at least some threat for
large fire starts. The lack of even stronger forecast winds
precludes a 70%/critical area at this time.
A 10%/isolated area for dry thunderstorms has been maintained with
some adjustments for Day 3/Saturday from northern CA into parts of
the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. These areas are
forecast to remain generally north of deeper moisture associated
with the Southwest monsoon. Marginal precipitable water values, at
least modestly enhanced mid-level flow, and receptive fuels should
contribute to the potential for some new fire starts from lightning
strikes with a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms.
A 10%/isolated delineation has also been introduced across parts of
northern CA into southern OR for Day 4/Sunday. A subtle disturbance
on the western periphery on the previously mentioned upper ridge may
combine with orogrpahic lift and increasing mid-level moisture to
initiate isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Some of these
storms may produce little wetting rainfall.
The potential may exist for isolated dry thunderstorms to persist
across some portion the Pacific Northwest into Day 5/Monday.
However, model differences and uncertainty regarding this
possibility remain too great to include any 10%/isolated delineation
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT