Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 261957
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Oct 26 2021
Valid 281200Z - 031200Z
A highly amplified mid-level trough positioned over the central
CONUS will shift east and develop into a closed upper-level low by
D4/Fri and D5/Sat. A predominantly zonal flow pattern should take
effect thereafter across the western/central CONUS, with perhaps a
ridge building into the West by the end of the forecast period. At
the surface, a cold front will continue to advance eastward across
the southeast by the weekend, with cooler and drier conditions
prevailing across the Western/Central CONUS.
...D3/Thurs: Southern High Plains...
The closed upper-level low to the East will allow a strong mid-level
jet streak to be situated over the region on D3/Thurs, resulting in
enhanced northerly mid-level flow. Despite cooler conditions behind
the cold front, the residual dry airmass, characterized by dew point
temperatures in the 20s F, combined with diurnal heating/mixing
should be enough to foster RH values into at least the low 20s
during the afternoon, and likely below 15% in some areas. Given the
flow regime aloft, diurnally driven momentum transfer will result in
sustained northwesterly winds of 25-30 mph at the surface, with
gusts exceeding 45-50 mph. Fine fuels should remain receptive to
large-fire spread, particularly in areas that remain west of the dry
line on D1/Tues.
An area delineating 70% probabilities of critical fire-weather
conditions has been introduced for far western Oklahoma and the
eastern Texas panhandle into portions of northwest Texas. This
appears to be the mostly likely area where RH values will fall below
15% during the afternoon. Otherwise, the 40% probabilities have been
expanded slightly east and southeast, where strong winds will likely
compensate for higher RH values.
Thereafter, fire-weather concerns remain low. Perhaps localized
elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Southern Plains
on D4/Fri. However, surface winds are projected to remain below
critical thresholds in most areas at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT