Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252053
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018
Valid 271200Z - 031200Z
Longwave ridging will build across the West Coast through
D5/Saturday. An upper-level cut-off low will slowly progress towards
the California coast as the offshore Rex block breaks down. While
some uncertainty still exists with regard to the exact position of
the mid-level jet when the upper-level low comes ashore on
D5/Saturday, model discrepancies have decreased to some extent and
allowed for more confidence in placing areas of potentially critical
fire weather conditions.
At the surface, another push of continental polar air will impact
portions of the northern/central Rockies. Surface troughing in the
northern Great Basin along with lee troughing in the Central Plains
will increase surface winds across much of Great Basin into the
For D7/Monday and beyond, differences in exact evolution of the
upper-level cut-off low rejoining the polar jet reduce confidence in
highlighting areas of potentially critical fire weather risk.
...D3/Thursday...Southern Wyoming...Snake River Valley...
As a cold front pushes into the northern/central Rockies, the
surface pressure gradient will increase across southern Wyoming and
parts of the Snake River Valley. At least modest heating ahead of
the front will allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to mix to
the surface and further enhance surface flow. Low afternoon RH
values are expected.
...D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday...Portions of Great Basin into the
Better agreement between the GFS/ECMWF with regard to the evolution
of the upper-level low has increased confidence in potentially
critical fire weather conditions occurring from the Great Basin into
the central Rockies. Broad areas of 40% probability have been
introduced where a combination of boundary-layer mixing of higher
momentum air aloft and surface troughing across the Great
Basin/Central Plains will enhance surface flow amidst low afternoon
RH and dry fuels. Fuels are least receptive in portions of southeast
Oregon, but hot/dry conditions are expected in the interim. Further
refinement of these areas is likely as the details of where
pertinent upper-level/surface features will be located becomes
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT