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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 17, 2019
Updated: Thu Jan 17 22:01:02 UTC 2019  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D5 22,353 1,020,417 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Carlsbad, NM...Deming, NM...
D3Sat, Jan 19, 2019 - Sun, Jan 20, 2019 D6Tue, Jan 22, 2019 - Wed, Jan 23, 2019
D4Sun, Jan 20, 2019 - Mon, Jan 21, 2019 D7Wed, Jan 23, 2019 - Thu, Jan 24, 2019
D5Mon, Jan 21, 2019 - Tue, Jan 22, 2019 D8Thu, Jan 24, 2019 - Fri, Jan 25, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 172159

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
   through the outlook period. This will bring seasonably cold
   temperatures and precipitation to much of the CONUS with possible
   exceptions of the Desert Southwest, West Texas, and Lower Rio Grande
   Valley. Two strong upper-level trough passages across the southern
   tier of the CONUS will likely bring fire weather concerns to
   portions of South Texas/Lower Rio Grande on Day 3/Saturday and to
   portions of the Southwest/southern High Plains on Day 5/Monday.

   On Day 3/Saturday, critical conditions (northwest sustained surface
   winds of 20 mph, RH values of 18-25%) may develop in a dry
   post-frontal regime near the Rio Grande stretching from the Edwards
   Plateau southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. The driest air should
   remain in northern Mexico with locally critical conditions most
   likely to develop in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. 

   On Day 4/Sunday, lee troughing and a dry air mass may result in
   elevated conditions across portions of the southern High Plains.
   However, the better chances for critical conditions will be on Day
   5/Monday, when a vigorous upper-level trough will bring strong deep
   layer flow to the Southwest/southern High Plains and support lee
   cyclogenesis near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Widespread
   west-southwest sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with RH values
   of 8-15% are expected to develop across southeast Arizona,
   southern/eastern New Mexico, and West Texas/Texas Panhandle on Day
   5/Monday. The limiting factor will be uncertainty regarding fuel
   dryness. Fine fuels may support large fire growth under these
   weather conditions, but there are higher dead fuel moisture values
   in heavier fuels across the region that will likely dampen the
   overall large fire potential. On Day 6/Tuesday, dry post-frontal
   conditions could result in critical conditions along the Rio Grande
   in West/South Texas.

   Additionally, dry northerly flow may result in elevated conditions
   in portions of South Florida on Day 5/Monday, but forecast wetting
   rains before Day 5/Monday should dampen fire potential. Offshore
   flow may develop across portions of southern California on Day
   6/Tuesday, but recent precipitation precludes any probabilities for
   critical conditions at this time.

   ..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: January 17, 2019
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