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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 27, 2022
Updated: Mon Jun 27 21:18:03 UTC 2022  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Jun 29, 2022 - Thu, Jun 30, 2022 D6Sat, Jul 02, 2022 - Sun, Jul 03, 2022
D4Thu, Jun 30, 2022 - Fri, Jul 01, 2022 D7Sun, Jul 03, 2022 - Mon, Jul 04, 2022
D5Fri, Jul 01, 2022 - Sat, Jul 02, 2022 D8Mon, Jul 04, 2022 - Tue, Jul 05, 2022
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 272114

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0414 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022

   Valid 291200Z - 051200Z

   Under the influence of a fast moving Pacific trough, the
   quasi-permanent ridge over much of the Southwest will weaken and
   shift eastwards through the first part of the extended period. As
   strong westerly winds overspread a warm and dry airamss across the
   Great Basin, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to
   develop. By late week, the trough will move east over the Plains as
   the ridge begins to rebound over the Great Basin ahead of a second
   trough. Thunderstorm chances will precede stronger winds aloft
   through the weekend and early next week. The active flow pattern and
   warming/drying conditions will support a general increase in fire
   weather concerns through the forecast period.

   ...Great Basin and Central Rockies...
   As the trough advances eastward through the first half of the
   extended forecast period, stronger westerly flow will result in
   substantial drying as the monsoon moisture plume and thunderstorm
   chances are shunted to the east. Dry and breezy conditions will
   likely persist along the Sierra Front and northern Great Basin
   through the end of the week and first part of the weekend, though
   with lessening intensity each day. As the trough ejects eastward
   D4/Thur, ridging will redevelop, keeping enhanced mid-level flow
   over the area. The dry downslope winds should support low RH below
   15%, further drying area fuels as temperatures warm beneath the
   ridge. 40% probability of critical highlights will be added for
   D3/Wed, though coverage through the remainder of the week is too
   uncertain to justify further areas. 

   Beginning late this weekend and early next week, a second
   quasi-stationary trough should develop over the West Coast bringing
   sustained southwesterly flow inland over the Pacific Northwest and
   northern Great Basin. Thunderstorms and the threat of lightning will
   return, preceding a period of drier and windier conditions
   supportive of elevated fire weather concerns later in the extended
   period. While details remain too sparse to include any areas at this
   time, a general increase in fire weather trends is expected. 

   ...High Plains...
   With strong mid-level flow moving east of the Rockies D2 and D3 (Tue
   and Wed), dry downslope winds are expected within drying fuels
   across much of the central High Plains. While not overly supportive,
   area fuels should be dry enough for elevated to locally critical
   fire weather concerns through midweek. 15+ mph surface winds and
   humidity falling below 20% will also further desiccate area fuels,
   favoring potential fire weather concerns. The strong flow aloft will
   likely linger through the remainder of the week as the trough
   gradually dissipates and the mid-level ridge redevelops to the west.
    With fuels tending drier and favorable meteorological conditions
   developing, a 40% probability of critical will be added for D3/Wed. 

   As the ridge builds back in after the passage of the initial Pacific
   trough, relatively quiet weather is expected until the weekend. By
   D6/Sat, a second stronger trough will approach the coast bringing
   the moisture and lift necessary for isolated to scattered
   thunderstorms. While fuels remain somewhat unfavorable, the
   potential for lightning ahead of this system is worth noting. The
   general pattern will continue through the weekend and into early
   next week with at least an isolated risk for showers and
   thunderstorms. With the increase in flow aloft, surface winds should
   gradually intensify as well. Some potential for drier and breezy
   conditions may exist closer to the northern Great Basin across
   southern OR and ID. Here, drier fuels and recent lightning activity
   may spark concern for elevated fire weather conditions later in the
   extended period.

   ..Lyons.. 06/27/2022

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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