ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 172146

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0446 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   Quasi-zonal flow aloft across much of the CONUS will begin to break
   down. An upper-level trough and associated jet will impinge upon the
   Pacific Northwest before digging into the Four Corners by late in
   the period. A cold front will move through the northern Rockies on
   D3/Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, lee troughing in the
   central/southern High Plains along with low pressure in the Great
   Basin will be the predominant surface features.

   ...D3/Wednesday...Columbia Basin Vicinity and north-central
   Montana...
   As the jet core moves over Washington/Oregon, stronger flow will mix
   down to the surface during the afternoon as the boundary layer
   deepens. Further surface wind enhancement will occur with a surface
   cyclone within the Canadian Prairies. Given the moist trajectories
   off of the Pacific, RH may be slightly higher than D2/Tuesday.
   Nonetheless, dry, downslope flow off of the Cascades will drop
   afternoon RH to around 20% in portions of the Columbia Basin. 40%
   probability for critical conditions will be maintained in this
   outlook. The greatest potential for critical conditions appears to
   be south-central Washington and vicinity.

   A conditional threat for elevated conditions will exist in portions
   of north-central Montana. A dry, windy post-frontal air mass is
   anticipated during the afternoon. The complicating factors in this
   scenario are where precipitation occurs along the cold front as well
   as broadly marginal fuel receptiveness. Some guidance suggests light
   enough precipitation in a few areas that could lead to fire weather
   concerns.

   ...D4/Thursday...Great Basin...
   As the trough continues to dig southward, very dry and breezy
   conditions are probable across much of the central/southern Great
   Basin into northern Arizona. Confidence in critical fire weather
   occurring is below 40% given the recent rainfall across these
   locations, particularly the Great Basin.

   ...D5/Friday and D6/Saturday...Portions of Southwest...
   The base of the mid-level trough will be near the Four Corners
   vicinity on Friday and Saturday. Relatively strong mid-level flow
   will overspread a broad portion of New Mexico and Arizona. A very
   dry and deeply mixed boundary layer will efficiently mix strong
   winds to the surface along with further enhancement from a central
   Plains lee trough. The northern extent of the risk area will be
   determined by how much fuels dry out in northern New Mexico/Arizona
   where recent rain has fallen. Fine fuels in some locations would
   support a critical designation, but fuel loading continues to be
   below normal.

   Late in the period the evolution of the upper-level trough becomes a
   bit more uncertain. Some lingering enhanced mid-level flow may
   continue across parts of the southern High Plains, but this will
   depend on the amplitude of the trough and how quickly it ejects into
   the Plains. The ECMWF has the trough losing amplitude and moving out
   onto the plains more quickly than the GFS.

   ..Wendt.. 06/17/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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