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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172146
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0446 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
Quasi-zonal flow aloft across much of the CONUS will begin to break
down. An upper-level trough and associated jet will impinge upon the
Pacific Northwest before digging into the Four Corners by late in
the period. A cold front will move through the northern Rockies on
D3/Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday, lee troughing in the
central/southern High Plains along with low pressure in the Great
Basin will be the predominant surface features.
...D3/Wednesday...Columbia Basin Vicinity and north-central
As the jet core moves over Washington/Oregon, stronger flow will mix
down to the surface during the afternoon as the boundary layer
deepens. Further surface wind enhancement will occur with a surface
cyclone within the Canadian Prairies. Given the moist trajectories
off of the Pacific, RH may be slightly higher than D2/Tuesday.
Nonetheless, dry, downslope flow off of the Cascades will drop
afternoon RH to around 20% in portions of the Columbia Basin. 40%
probability for critical conditions will be maintained in this
outlook. The greatest potential for critical conditions appears to
be south-central Washington and vicinity.
A conditional threat for elevated conditions will exist in portions
of north-central Montana. A dry, windy post-frontal air mass is
anticipated during the afternoon. The complicating factors in this
scenario are where precipitation occurs along the cold front as well
as broadly marginal fuel receptiveness. Some guidance suggests light
enough precipitation in a few areas that could lead to fire weather
As the trough continues to dig southward, very dry and breezy
conditions are probable across much of the central/southern Great
Basin into northern Arizona. Confidence in critical fire weather
occurring is below 40% given the recent rainfall across these
locations, particularly the Great Basin.
...D5/Friday and D6/Saturday...Portions of Southwest...
The base of the mid-level trough will be near the Four Corners
vicinity on Friday and Saturday. Relatively strong mid-level flow
will overspread a broad portion of New Mexico and Arizona. A very
dry and deeply mixed boundary layer will efficiently mix strong
winds to the surface along with further enhancement from a central
Plains lee trough. The northern extent of the risk area will be
determined by how much fuels dry out in northern New Mexico/Arizona
where recent rain has fallen. Fine fuels in some locations would
support a critical designation, but fuel loading continues to be
Late in the period the evolution of the upper-level trough becomes a
bit more uncertain. Some lingering enhanced mid-level flow may
continue across parts of the southern High Plains, but this will
depend on the amplitude of the trough and how quickly it ejects into
the Plains. The ECMWF has the trough losing amplitude and moving out
onto the plains more quickly than the GFS.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT