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PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 202158
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018
Valid 221200Z - 281200Z
An active, amplified mid/upper pattern will exist across the Lower
48 throughout the forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs
migrating across the CONUS. The first of these troughs will approach
the West Coast on D3/Thu and provide much-needed rainfall to many
areas of California. That wave will quickly migrate eastward toward
the central Plains, with another quickly amplifying shortwave
migrating southeastward toward the southern Plains around the D5/Sat
timeframe. That wave will induce strong High-Plains surface
cyclogenesis and an attendant downslope event from New Mexico into
west Texas. Upstream of this system, Great Basin high pressure will
foster a modest offshore gradient in areas of southern California,
though it remains uncertain how extensive the resultant fire-weather
threat will be on D6/Sun given appreciable rainfall chances earlier
in the forecast period.
...D5/Sat - Eastern New Mexico into West Texas...
Models indicate that dry airmass will reside on the west side of a
surface low/trough that will likely be located east/northeast of the
area through peak heating hours. Elevated to critical atmospheric
fire weather conditions are likely to develop within the dry sector
for several hours D5/Sat afternoon. Fuel states have generally been
unfavorable for widespread fire weather, although antecedent drying
may support curing of finer fuels leading up to the event. 40%
probabilities are introduced to address this threat, although the
extent of the fire weather threat will be dictated by the extent of
drying fuels in this region in the coming days.
...D6/Sun - Southern California...
Great Basin high pressure will foster development of a modest
offshore pressure gradient that will likely elevate the fire-weather
risk in coastal ranges and typical terrain-favored areas. The
greatest uncertainty regarding the extent of the fire weather threat
revolves around precipitation expected around D3/Thu and subsequent
fuel states. The overall scenario appears to support at least
localized areas of elevated fire weather potential, and given recent
high-impact fire weather activity and the potential for some curing
of fuels leading up to the event, a small 40% probability area has
been introduced for this area. This risk area will likely be
refined in later updates once details regarding precipitation and
fuel states are resolved.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT