Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks.
Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 212156
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0456 PM CDT Sat Jul 21 2018
Valid 231200Z - 291200Z
Upper ridging should remain over a majority of the western U.S.
through much of the upcoming week. Enhanced mid-level westerly flow
is forecast to remain confined to mainly the northern tier of the
northwest/north-central states. Primary fire weather concern through
the extended forecast period remains dry thunderstorm potential
across parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Great Basin.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of the Pacific Northwest
and Northern Great Basin...
Mid-level moisture on the western/northern extent of the upper ridge
should remain over northern CA, southern OR, and the northern Great
Basin. Although large-scale forcing is forecast to remain
weak/nebulous, terrain influences coupled with diurnal heating may
be enough to generate isolated thunderstorms across these areas on
both Day 3/Monday and Day 4/Tuesday. Have maintained the
10%/isolated area for dry thunderstorm potential on Day 3/Monday
with some modifications based on latest guidance. A 10%/isolated
delineation was also made for Day 4/Tuesday across a similar area as
the overall synoptic pattern appears relatively unchanged from Day
...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Portions of Coastal Southern CA...
Offshore winds may modestly strengthen across parts of coastal
southern CA through the early to middle portions of the upcoming
week as the previously mentioned upper ridge builds over this area.
Forecast surface pressure gradient appears strongest across the
Santa Barbara Coast/Mountains from Tuesday afternoon through at
least Thursday morning. Locally gusty Sundowner winds may occur each
evening across this region in combination with lowered RH values and
dry fuels. For now, substantial model differences remain regarding
the strength of the pressure gradient. Therefore, no probabilities
have been included for possible critical fire conditions.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT