ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 202158

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0358 PM CST Tue Nov 20 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

   An active, amplified mid/upper pattern will exist across the Lower
   48 throughout the forecast period, with multiple shortwave troughs
   migrating across the CONUS. The first of these troughs will approach
   the West Coast on D3/Thu and provide much-needed rainfall to many
   areas of California.  That wave will quickly migrate eastward toward
   the central Plains, with another quickly amplifying shortwave
   migrating southeastward toward the southern Plains around the D5/Sat
   timeframe.  That wave will induce strong High-Plains surface
   cyclogenesis and an attendant downslope event from New Mexico into
   west Texas.  Upstream of this system, Great Basin high pressure will
   foster a modest offshore gradient in areas of southern California,
   though it remains uncertain how extensive the resultant fire-weather
   threat will be on D6/Sun given appreciable rainfall chances earlier
   in the forecast period.

   ...D5/Sat - Eastern New Mexico into West Texas...
   Models indicate that dry airmass will reside on the west side of a
   surface low/trough that will likely be located east/northeast of the
   area through peak heating hours.  Elevated to critical atmospheric
   fire weather conditions are likely to develop within the dry sector
   for several hours D5/Sat afternoon.  Fuel states have generally been
   unfavorable for widespread fire weather, although antecedent drying
   may support curing of finer fuels leading up to the event.  40%
   probabilities are introduced to address this threat, although the
   extent of the fire weather threat will be dictated by the extent of
   drying fuels in this region in the coming days.

   ...D6/Sun - Southern California...
   Great Basin high pressure will foster development of a modest
   offshore pressure gradient that will likely elevate the fire-weather
   risk in coastal ranges and typical terrain-favored areas.  The
   greatest uncertainty regarding the extent of the fire weather threat
   revolves around precipitation expected around D3/Thu and subsequent
   fuel states.  The overall scenario appears to support at least
   localized areas of elevated fire weather potential, and given recent
   high-impact fire weather activity and the potential for some curing
   of fuels leading up to the event, a small 40% probability area has
   been introduced for this area.  This risk area will likely be
   refined in later updates once details regarding precipitation and
   fuel states are resolved.

   ..Cook.. 11/20/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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