Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jan 17, 2019
Updated: Thu Jan 17 22:01:02 UTC 2019 (Print Version)
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El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Carlsbad, NM...Deming, NM...
D3
Sat, Jan 19, 2019 - Sun, Jan 20, 2019
D6
Tue, Jan 22, 2019 - Wed, Jan 23, 2019
D4
Sun, Jan 20, 2019 - Mon, Jan 21, 2019
D7
Wed, Jan 23, 2019 - Thu, Jan 24, 2019
D5
Mon, Jan 21, 2019 - Tue, Jan 22, 2019
D8
Thu, Jan 24, 2019 - Fri, Jan 25, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172159
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Thu Jan 17 2019
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
A progressive upper-level pattern will continue across the CONUS
through the outlook period. This will bring seasonably cold
temperatures and precipitation to much of the CONUS with possible
exceptions of the Desert Southwest, West Texas, and Lower Rio Grande
Valley. Two strong upper-level trough passages across the southern
tier of the CONUS will likely bring fire weather concerns to
portions of South Texas/Lower Rio Grande on Day 3/Saturday and to
portions of the Southwest/southern High Plains on Day 5/Monday.
On Day 3/Saturday, critical conditions (northwest sustained surface
winds of 20 mph, RH values of 18-25%) may develop in a dry
post-frontal regime near the Rio Grande stretching from the Edwards
Plateau southeastward towards the Gulf Coast. The driest air should
remain in northern Mexico with locally critical conditions most
likely to develop in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.
On Day 4/Sunday, lee troughing and a dry air mass may result in
elevated conditions across portions of the southern High Plains.
However, the better chances for critical conditions will be on Day
5/Monday, when a vigorous upper-level trough will bring strong deep
layer flow to the Southwest/southern High Plains and support lee
cyclogenesis near the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Widespread
west-southwest sustained surface winds of 20-30 mph with RH values
of 8-15% are expected to develop across southeast Arizona,
southern/eastern New Mexico, and West Texas/Texas Panhandle on Day
5/Monday. The limiting factor will be uncertainty regarding fuel
dryness. Fine fuels may support large fire growth under these
weather conditions, but there are higher dead fuel moisture values
in heavier fuels across the region that will likely dampen the
overall large fire potential. On Day 6/Tuesday, dry post-frontal
conditions could result in critical conditions along the Rio Grande
in West/South Texas.
Additionally, dry northerly flow may result in elevated conditions
in portions of South Florida on Day 5/Monday, but forecast wetting
rains before Day 5/Monday should dampen fire potential. Offshore
flow may develop across portions of southern California on Day
6/Tuesday, but recent precipitation precludes any probabilities for
critical conditions at this time.
..Nauslar.. 01/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
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