Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: On February 23, 2021 the Probabilistic Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlooks became operational. Please see the Service Change Notice 20-115 for more details.
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 232107
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0407 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 251200Z - 011200Z
A deepening trough across the western US will result in
amplification of an eastward shifting ridge across the
central/eastern US early next week. Cooler conditions, increasing
relative humidity, and potential for widespread wetting rainfall is
expected across much of the Pacific Northwest. Windy and dry
conditions will be possible across the Great Basin and Northern
Rockies, where little to no rainfall is expected. Beyond mid-week,
breezy conditions may continue as persistent troughing brings waves
of stronger mid-level flow across the west.
...Great Basin/Northern Rockies...
An increase in south to southwest winds is expected for D3 - Monday
across the Great Basin in response to increasing mid-level flow
overspreading the region. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to
15-20 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph across northern
Nevada, southeastward Oregon, and southwestern Idaho. Marginal fuels
within this region will preclude the need to include Critical
probabilities, though Elevated fire weather conditions are likely as
further drying of fuels occurs with forecast strong winds. Lingering
dry conditions will be possible on D4 - Tuesday, but winds will be
much lighter mitigating the fire weather risk.
For the extended period, models suggest continued troughing across
the west will bring cool and wet conditions across the Pacific
Northwest into Great Basin and the Northern Rockies. Further drying
will be likely across the southwest, with potential for breezy
conditions. Overall, confidence is low in where any dry/breezy
conditions will overlap receptive fuels along with potential for
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT