Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Jun 27, 2022
Updated: Mon Jun 27 21:18:03 UTC 2022 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 272114
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 PM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Valid 291200Z - 051200Z
Under the influence of a fast moving Pacific trough, the
quasi-permanent ridge over much of the Southwest will weaken and
shift eastwards through the first part of the extended period. As
strong westerly winds overspread a warm and dry airamss across the
Great Basin, elevated fire weather conditions are expected to
develop. By late week, the trough will move east over the Plains as
the ridge begins to rebound over the Great Basin ahead of a second
trough. Thunderstorm chances will precede stronger winds aloft
through the weekend and early next week. The active flow pattern and
warming/drying conditions will support a general increase in fire
weather concerns through the forecast period.
...Great Basin and Central Rockies...
As the trough advances eastward through the first half of the
extended forecast period, stronger westerly flow will result in
substantial drying as the monsoon moisture plume and thunderstorm
chances are shunted to the east. Dry and breezy conditions will
likely persist along the Sierra Front and northern Great Basin
through the end of the week and first part of the weekend, though
with lessening intensity each day. As the trough ejects eastward
D4/Thur, ridging will redevelop, keeping enhanced mid-level flow
over the area. The dry downslope winds should support low RH below
15%, further drying area fuels as temperatures warm beneath the
ridge. 40% probability of critical highlights will be added for
D3/Wed, though coverage through the remainder of the week is too
uncertain to justify further areas.
Beginning late this weekend and early next week, a second
quasi-stationary trough should develop over the West Coast bringing
sustained southwesterly flow inland over the Pacific Northwest and
northern Great Basin. Thunderstorms and the threat of lightning will
return, preceding a period of drier and windier conditions
supportive of elevated fire weather concerns later in the extended
period. While details remain too sparse to include any areas at this
time, a general increase in fire weather trends is expected.
...High Plains...
With strong mid-level flow moving east of the Rockies D2 and D3 (Tue
and Wed), dry downslope winds are expected within drying fuels
across much of the central High Plains. While not overly supportive,
area fuels should be dry enough for elevated to locally critical
fire weather concerns through midweek. 15+ mph surface winds and
humidity falling below 20% will also further desiccate area fuels,
favoring potential fire weather concerns. The strong flow aloft will
likely linger through the remainder of the week as the trough
gradually dissipates and the mid-level ridge redevelops to the west.
With fuels tending drier and favorable meteorological conditions
developing, a 40% probability of critical will be added for D3/Wed.
...Northwest...
As the ridge builds back in after the passage of the initial Pacific
trough, relatively quiet weather is expected until the weekend. By
D6/Sat, a second stronger trough will approach the coast bringing
the moisture and lift necessary for isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. While fuels remain somewhat unfavorable, the
potential for lightning ahead of this system is worth noting. The
general pattern will continue through the weekend and into early
next week with at least an isolated risk for showers and
thunderstorms. With the increase in flow aloft, surface winds should
gradually intensify as well. Some potential for drier and breezy
conditions may exist closer to the northern Great Basin across
southern OR and ID. Here, drier fuels and recent lightning activity
may spark concern for elevated fire weather conditions later in the
extended period.
..Lyons.. 06/27/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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