Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 29, 2020
Updated: Tue Sep 29 21:35:05 UTC 2020 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 292131
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0431 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2020
Valid 011200Z - 071200Z
Upper-level ridging over the West Coast will dominate the overall
pattern through the extended forecast period. Very hot, dry, and
unstable conditions are expected underneath the ridge, while cooler
but, dry and breezy conditions are expected to the east across the
Plains.
...West Coast...
With ridging firmly in place over the West Coast, hot, dry and
unstable conditions are expected over much of California. With the
ridge continuing to strengthen through the week, synoptic winds are
forecast to decrease substantially through the next several days.
Despite the lack of stronger background winds, the development of a
surface thermal pressure trough will likely enhance surface winds
through the afternoon hours. This and terrain favored areas should
support stronger down valley flow and locally elevated to critical
fire weather conditions through the weekend. Periodic offshore flow
may also develop, with remnant offshore pressure gradients across
portions of southern California.
Heading into the weekend, a weak shortwave trough will move over the
northern tip of the ridge, flattening it somewhat. This should bring
some onshore flow in across portions of the West Coast. A brief
respite with higher humidity and weaker winds is expected. However,
localized fire weather conditions will likely remain as the ridge
rebuilds quickly early next week.
...Central and Northern Plains...
To the east of the ridge, gusty northwest flow will remain anchored
over the central US keeping elevated fire weather concerns in the
forecast. A more significant shortwave trough on Day5/Saturday will
support enhanced mixing in a dry post frontal airmass. This may
result in elevated and locally critical fire weather conditions
despite the cooler temperatures.
..Lyons.. 09/29/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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