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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 25, 2018
Updated: Tue Sep 25 20:55:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Thu, Sep 27, 2018 - Fri, Sep 28, 2018 D6Sun, Sep 30, 2018 - Mon, Oct 01, 2018
D4Fri, Sep 28, 2018 - Sat, Sep 29, 2018 D7Mon, Oct 01, 2018 - Tue, Oct 02, 2018
D5Sat, Sep 29, 2018 - Sun, Sep 30, 2018 D8Tue, Oct 02, 2018 - Wed, Oct 03, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252053

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018

   Valid 271200Z - 031200Z

   Longwave ridging will build across the West Coast through
   D5/Saturday. An upper-level cut-off low will slowly progress towards
   the California coast as the offshore Rex block breaks down. While
   some uncertainty still exists with regard to the exact position of
   the mid-level jet when the upper-level low comes ashore on
   D5/Saturday, model discrepancies have decreased to some extent and
   allowed for more confidence in placing areas of potentially critical
   fire weather conditions.

   At the surface, another push of continental polar air will impact
   portions of the northern/central Rockies. Surface troughing in the
   northern Great Basin along with lee troughing in the Central Plains
   will increase surface winds across much of Great Basin into the
   central Rockies.

   For D7/Monday and beyond, differences in exact evolution of the
   upper-level cut-off low rejoining the polar jet reduce confidence in
   highlighting areas of potentially critical fire weather risk.

   ...D3/Thursday...Southern Wyoming...Snake River Valley...
   As a cold front pushes into the northern/central Rockies, the
   surface pressure gradient will increase across southern Wyoming and
   parts of the Snake River Valley. At least modest heating ahead of
   the front will allow some of the stronger mid-level flow to mix to
   the surface and further enhance surface flow. Low afternoon RH
   values are expected.

   ...D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday...Portions of Great Basin into the
   central Rockies...
   Better agreement between the GFS/ECMWF with regard to the evolution
   of the upper-level low has increased confidence in potentially
   critical fire weather conditions occurring from the Great Basin into
   the central Rockies. Broad areas of 40% probability have been
   introduced where a combination of boundary-layer mixing of higher
   momentum air aloft and surface troughing across the Great
   Basin/Central Plains will enhance surface flow amidst low afternoon
   RH and dry fuels. Fuels are least receptive in portions of southeast
   Oregon, but hot/dry conditions are expected in the interim. Further
   refinement of these areas is likely as the details of where
   pertinent upper-level/surface features will be located becomes
   clearer.

   ..Wendt.. 09/25/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 25, 2018
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