MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1700
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0738 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI...NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 230038Z - 230215Z
   
   AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST ESEWD ACROSS ERN IA INTO
   NRN IL AND FAR SRN WI THIS EVENING. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
   EXIST WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS. WW ISSUANCE REMAINS POSSIBLE
   ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM ONGOING IN NERN IA IS LOCATED JUST
   TO THE NORTH OF A MAXIMUM OF INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE
   ESTIMATED TO AROUND 5000 J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG
   INSTABILITY...THE STORM IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AS THE
   STORMS MOVE ESEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY INTO A VERY
   MOIST AIRMASS...30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY ENABLE THE
   STORMS TO REMAIN SEVERE EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS CAN
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEVELOP A COLD POOL...THEN ISOLATED WET
   DOWNBURSTS COULD OCCUR. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
   
   LAT...LON   43089322 42699359 42229353 41769280 41029000 40858859
               41528783 42068788 42458859 43269173 43259274 43089322