MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1701
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0856 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...ND...NRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 671...673...674...
   
   VALID 230156Z - 230330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
   671...673...674...CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE WRN PART OF WW 673 WILL CONTINUE MOVING
   SEWD ACROSS CNTRL AND SRN ND REACHING NCNTRL SD LATER THIS EVENING.
   WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE MORE
   INTENSE CELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
   THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONTAINED WITHIN THE CURRENT TORNADO
   WATCHES AND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
   
   A WELL-DEVELOPED BOWING LINE SEGMENT ONGOING IN WRN ND WILL CONTINUE
   TO RIDE QUICKLY ESEWD ALONG A GRADIENT OF STRONG INSTABILITY LOCATED
   FROM WRN ND NEAR BISMARCK EXTENDING ESEWD INTO NERN SD EAST OF
   ABERDEEN. THE LINE WILL ACCESS HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS WHICH ALONG WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF 45 TO 55 KT SHOULD
   RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IN ADDITION...THE LINE IS
   LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KT.
   THE JET ALONG WITH BACKED SFC WINDS AHEAD OF THE LINE IS CREATING
   STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE TORNADO
   THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN INITIATE AHEAD OF
   THE LINE OR WITH ROTATING CELL ELEMENTS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE ITSELF.
   SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL MAINLY DUE
   TO THE STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   
   FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS ERN MT...THE SEVERE THREAT IS ENDING AS
   THE LINE MOVES EWD AWAY FROM WW 671. FOR THIS REASON...THE WATCH IN
   ERN MT MAY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/23/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   44810046 44490203 45010204 45020289 45210291 45230397
               48990407 49000150 48530148 48530109 47860100 47870009
               47340003 47329948 46649945 46639904 45959903 45979870
               45259873 45220025 45000039 44810046