MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1276
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0435 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 
   
   VALID 252135Z - 252300Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS
   THEY MOVE NWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF MT.
   SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
   
   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING ELY LOW LEVEL POST FRONTAL WINDS
   HAVE ADVECTED LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WWD THROUGH MUCH OF NRN AND CNTRL MT
   BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO AN AXIS OF
   1500-3000 J/KG MLCAPE. LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
   INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN/CNTRL THROUGH WRN MT...AND
   HIGH BASED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY DEVELOP. NWRN FRINGE OF
   UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY A NNEWD EJECTING SPEED MAX
   WITH MODEST HEIGHT FALLS INDICATED OVER WRN AND CNTRL MT.
   TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S NE OF THE
   HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE CAP IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK FOR STORMS TO
   DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ONCE INITIATED...VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-50
   KT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WHICH WILL LIKELY SURVIVE AND
   INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.
   
   ..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...MSO...
   
   LAT...LON   48891371 48800984 48410610 47020598 47330980 48011304
               48891371