MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1277
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF THE FL PENINSULA AND ERN PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 427...
   
   VALID 252227Z - 252330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 427 CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO HAVE TEMPORARILY WANED ACROSS
   THE AREA WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF ROTATING STORMS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
   TIME. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WW MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY IF CURRENT
   TRENDS CONTINUE.
   
   DISCUSSION...DETERMINISTIC MODELS APPEAR TO BE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN
   ASSESSING SOMEWHAT SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
   ENTRAINMENT/SUBSIDENCE THAT WAS OBSERVED ON THE AREA 18Z
   SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY AT JAX. LONG-LOOP OF WV IMAGERY SHOWS A
   CONTINUATION OF DRIER AIR/SUBSIDENCE ADVECTING INTO THE REGION
   AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND AN
   EXITING THROUGH TO THE N. AS SUCH...THE POTENTIAL FOR
   ROBUST/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS REMAINS UNCLEAR.
   
   WITH NO WELL ORGANIZED BANDS EVIDENT AND HI-RES MODEL FORECASTS
   INDICATING LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE WELL
   DEFINED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND RESULTING BAND OF
   CONVECTION...TORNADIC POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAINS
   UNCLEAR. VAD WIND PROFILE TRENDS INDICATE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS
   WEAKENED SOME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ALTHOUGH 0-3 KM SRH NEAR
   250-350 M2/S2 REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATION SHOULD A STRONGER
   UPDRAFT OCCUR.
   
   ..HURLBUT.. 06/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...
   
   LAT...LON   30638108 28968041 27818004 26287964 26248065 25788093
               25628206 27018289 27868318 28578310 28768328 29758406
               29998460 30318461 30628436 30598230 30368218 30388198
               30828194 30638108