MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1278
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY...SERN MT THROUGH WRN SD
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428...
   
   VALID 252326Z - 260100Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 428
   CONTINUES.
   
   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM NERN WY...SERN MT THROUGH WRN SD NEXT
   COUPLE HOURS. STORMS MIGHT EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO SWRN ND...AND
   THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.
   
   DISCUSSION...TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR SOME OF THE EARLIER DISCRETE
   STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH
   THE NRN HIGH PLAINS...THOUGH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE DISCRETE CELLS
   REMAIN. STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
   AND STRONGER INSTABILITY AS THEY APPROACH THE SD BORDER...BUT CAP IS
   ALSO STRONGER WITH EWD EXTENT WHICH RAISES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
   FUTURE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION...ESPECIALLY GIVEN PRESENCE OF MODEST
   DEEP SHEAR SOUTH OF THE MT BORDER. TENDENCY FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
   TO CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHENING LLJ MIGHT SUPPORT CONTINUED FORWARD
   PROPAGATION INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE AIR AND REINVIGORATE CONVECTION
   OVER WRN SD. CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
   GIVEN PRESENCE OF BOTH POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE FACTORS FOR
   REDEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IN THE MEANTIME...THE
   STRONGER STORMS IN PROGRESS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT OF
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND.
   
   STORMS OVER SERN MT MAY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEWD TOWARD SWRN ND
   WHERE SHEAR PROFILES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...THAT MAY
   HELP TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS FARTHER EAST INTO THE MOIST WARM SECTOR
   WHERE THE CAP IS STRONGER.
   
   ..DIAL.. 06/25/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...CYS...BYZ...GGW...
   
   LAT...LON   43070461 46010654 46720556 46790355 45200364 43400286
               43070461