MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 271900Z - 272000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS SOON. SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND WW WILL LIKELY BE
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW
   TSTM INITIATION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE CO AND FAR SW WY AS AN OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MOVES SWWD THROUGH THE REGION. AKO /IN NE CO/ RECENTLY
   OBSERVED A WIND SHIFT FROM NLY TO ELY COINCIDENT WITH A DEWPOINT
   INCREASE FROM 44 TO 58 DEG F AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH.
   ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATED
   INCREASE IN MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT
   ASSOCIATED AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
   SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER THE
   REGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY AS A RESULT. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED SVR STORMS.

   PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR HAIL/WIND BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCED
   TORNADO RISK N OF THE SFC LOW IN WRN KS. IN THIS AREA...ELY WIND
   WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO AN AREA WITH WIND PROFILE
   FAVORABLE FOR A TORNADOES. ALL OR PART OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEED
   A WW BEFORE 19Z. FARTHER E...THE INITIATION STILL APPEARS TO BE AT
   LEAST A FEW HOURS AWAY AS THE CAP REMAINS STRONG.

   ..MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2013


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42320420 42900366 42980217 42950025 41819958 39729977
               38980007 38590095 38570246 39210396 42320420