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Mesoscale Discussion 53 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 AM CST MON FEB 02 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN NY...NERN PA...VT...FAR WRN
MA...FAR NWRN CT
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 020900Z - 021500Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW CAPABLE OF 1.0-1.5-IN/HR RATES WILL SPREAD
ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.
DISCUSSION...SFC LOW PRESSURE AT 996 MB IS ANALYZED BETWEEN
AKRON/CANTON AND CLEVELAND OHIO...AND WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ENEWD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN PA AND SRN NY THROUGH THE MORNING WHERE
2-HOURLY PRESSURE FALLS OF 3.0-4.5 MB ARE OCCURRING. IN ADVANCE OF
THE LOW...ASCENT CONTINUES WITHIN A BROAD WAA REGIME REFLECTED BY
WINDS STRONGLY VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AS
SAMPLED BY THE BGM VWP. DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THE EXIT
REGION OF THE LLJ THAT IS ENCOURAGING THIS WAA AND RELATED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL ADVANCE ENEWD IN TANDEM WITH THE TRAJECTORY
OF THE SFC LOW. WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE AN UPSTREAM MIDLEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH RELATED DEEP ASCENT NEARING THE SFC LOW.
RESULTANT CYCLOGENESIS WILL FOSTER STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETIC
CIRCULATIONS N OF THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW.
THE NET RESULT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PROCESSES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING
PRECIPITATION AND SUPPORT ITS ENEWD SPREAD AND INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH THE MORNING. SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE WILL YIELD SNOW...WITH RATES OF 1.0-1.5
INCHES PER HOUR ANTICIPATED. RELATIVELY COLDER PROFILES WITH NWD
DISPLACEMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA -- ESPECIALLY NEAR AND N OF
THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR INCLUDING THE ALBANY NY AREA -- WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES COINCIDING WITH DEEP
UPWARD MOTION. THIS IS WHERE HIGHER SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS WILL EXIST
AND THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE ANTICIPATED. SECONDARY SFC
CYCLOGENESIS S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACK WILL REINFORCE
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH SIMILAR
SNOWFALL RATES PERSISTING FOR SEVERAL HOURS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
..COHEN.. 02/02/2015
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...BGM...BUF...
LAT...LON 44937258 44657216 43477232 41617360 41447521 42297612
43237625 44387581 44937455 44937258
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