MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0409 AM CST MON FEB 02 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MA...SRN NH...MUCH OF SRN ME...CT AND RI

   CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

   VALID 021009Z - 021615Z

   SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH 1-2 IN/HR
   RATES BY MIDDAY ACROSS MA...SRN NH AND ME.

   DISCUSSION...A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP FROM PA THIS MORNING EWD
   ACROSS COASTAL NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING LIFT AND
   MOISTURE COMBINING WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
   SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM ERN MA ACROSS SRN
   NH AND ESPECIALLY SRN MAINE LATER TODAY AS INTENSE FRONTOGENETICAL
   FORCING FOR ASCENT DEVELOPS.

   THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS A
   RESULT OF THE BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING
   LOW. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENS...LIFT WILL
   BECOME QUITE ORGANIZED IN A W-E ORIENTED BAND SITUATED ACROSS MUCH
   OF SRN ME BY MIDDAY. THIS BAND WILL CONTAIN PARTICULARLY HEAVY SNOW
   WITH RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 IN/HR POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THE AREAS
   FROM MAINE INTO NEW BRUNSWICK WILL SEE LONG DURATIONS OF HEAVY SNOW
   EXTENDING WELL INTO THE EVENING.

   AREAS FARTHER S ACROSS CT INTO RI AND THE PORTION OF MA S OF BOSTON
   WILL EXPERIENCE WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WITH AND EVENTUAL
   CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BUT NOT BEFORE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
   SNOW.

   ..JEWELL.. 02/02/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...ALY...

   LAT...LON   43987132 44676956 44886796 44606761 44166794 44046867
               43896917 43676978 43657003 42887059 42637051 42157062
               41837121 41757189 41897250 42427270 43287230 43987132