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Mesoscale Discussion 128 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0512 AM CDT SUN MAR 15 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NRN MAINE
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 151012Z - 151615Z
SUMMARY...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW LASTING THROUGH THE
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...RECENT MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY INDICATES A MIDLEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS IT TRACKS EWD TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND. PRECEDING DCVA IS PRESENTLY OVERTAKING SFC LOW PRESSURE
ANALYZED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS A RESULT...OFFSHORE
CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY ROBUST DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE THE DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE TAKES A NEWD TRACK
OVER THE WATERS OFF THE MAINE COAST. AN ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING
WARM CONVEYOR WILL ENCOURAGE AN INFLUX OF OCEAN-MODIFIED AIR INTO
THE NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ALONG ISENTROPICALLY ASCENDING
TRAJECTORIES. SFC PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 2-3 MB PER 2 HOURS HIGHLIGHT
THE ONGOING WARM-ADVECTION REGIME PRESENTLY SUPPORTING AREAS OF
SNOW.
HOWEVER...WITH FURTHER INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WITH
RATES OF 1.0-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED TO BECOME COMMON BY AROUND
11-13Z. FAVORABLY DEEP/MOIST DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES JUXTAPOSED WITH
THE STRENGTHENING ASCENT AMIDST SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SUCH RATES. AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WILL
LIKELY LINGER THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...WITH SNOWFALL TAPERING OFF IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..COHEN.. 03/15/2015
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 46647003 46816879 46466780 45506744 44706720 44616799
45116962 45737045 46647003
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