MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0129
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0345 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NWRN/N-CNTRL TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 192045Z - 192245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE BY
   22-23Z...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR
   A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CONTINUED
   DEVELOPMENT OF A CU FIELD NEAR/SW OF KSPS. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS IN
   RESPONSE TO INCREASED INSOLATION AND FURTHER MOISTENING OF THE BL
   ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOWER-MID 70S AND TDS
   INTO THE LOWER 60S. IN CONJUNCTION WITH ENHANCED FORCING FOR ASCENT
   FROM WEAK DCVA AND AN APPROACHING JET MAXIMA ALOFT...SHOWERS/TSTMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
   VICINITY OF A SFC LOW ANALYZED E OF KLBB/KPVW AND EXTENDING ALONG A
   WARM FRONT TO THE E/SE OF THAT LOW.

   ALONG/SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST MLCAPE UP TO 500-900 J/KG. WITH FAIRLY
   MEAGER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /GENERALLY AROUND 6-6.5 C PER
   KM/...VERTICAL ACCELERATION IN THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE IS LIKELY TO BE
   RELATIVELY MODEST. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KT
   SHOULD SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION/ROTATION. AS SUCH...A
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT WILL BE PRESENT WITH ANY STRONGER
   SUPERCELLULAR/MULTI-CELLULAR STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
   EVENING. FURTHERMORE...WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FAIRLY
   WEAK...ENHANCED SRH RESULTING FROM BACKED WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
   THE FRONT WILL OFFER A BRIEF WINDOW FOR A WEAK TORNADO /GENERALLY
   NEAR-SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS/. HOWEVER...CELLS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
   ELEVATED AS THEY SPREAD NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...ENDING ANY SMALL
   TORNADO THREAT. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER
   THIS EVENING...AS CELLS PROGRESS EWD INTO A MORE-HOSTILE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.

   ..PICCA/GUYER.. 03/19/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

   LAT...LON   32699807 32389925 32490012 33090037 33350047 33790067
               33950084 34210059 34219992 34139845 33749781 33209766
               32699807