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Mesoscale Discussion 134 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0134
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW MO...SE KS...NW AR...E OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 241905Z - 242030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS INCREASING WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 20-21Z IN FAR SE KS WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION...STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WELL-DEFINED AND COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED NEAR AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED IN SE KS...WITH LATER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/TRAILING COLD FRONT. A WARM FRONT IS ADVANCING NORTH RAPIDLY
OVER SW MO...AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL FORM NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/WARM FRONT AS THE STRONG FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
ALTHOUGH CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MODEST /MLCAPE
VALUES RANGE FROM 500 TO 1500 J PER KG IN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR
ADVECTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT/...INCREASING DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A 50-60 KT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ORIENTED
LARGELY ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INITIAL DISCRETE
SUPERCELL MODES. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT INVOF THE WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL REMAIN BACKED
IN THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS. OTHERWISE...SEVERE
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...INCLUDING THOSE
THAT SPREAD NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE...UNTIL THE ABUNDANT CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR DISRUPTS
THE UNSTABLE PARCELS ASCENDING NORTH OF THE FRONT. DMGG WIND GUSTS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE STEEP-LAPSE-RATE ENVIRONMENT.
..CONIGLIO/COHEN/BUNTING.. 03/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36279565 36629560 37389577 37789572 38309523 38609463
38639345 38389280 37789199 37129189 36349220 35659283
35219317 34809394 34549445 34319512 34189573 34289618
34609626 35149602 35689574 36279565
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