|
Mesoscale Discussion 135 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0135
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SW MO...NW AR...E OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5...
VALID 242230Z - 250000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 5 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER THE
AREA. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS SW MO INTO FAR NW AR AND FAR NE OK. INITIAL CELLS HAVE BEEN
DISCRETE BUT CLOSELY-SPACED. STORM INTERACTIONS HAVE PREVENTED
LONG-LIVED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES THUS FAR...BUT ONE STORM HAS EMERGED
AS DOMINANT AND HAS PRODUCED UP TO PING-PONG BALL SIZED HAIL FROM
CRAWFORD COUNTY KANSAS TO BARTON COUNTY MISSOURI. A FEW ADDITIONAL
CELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO FAR NW
ARKANSAS...WHILE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SPREADS NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH A CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL THREAT. A TORNADO OR TWO STILL
CANNOT BE RULED WITH EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES
200-250 M2/S2 AND LOWER T/TD SPREADS INVOF THE WARM FRONT FOR ANY
STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. OTHERWISE THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
FURTHER SOUTH INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA CONVECTION HAS YET TO INITIATE
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AS CONVERGENCE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO
FORM ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS AREA WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND SUPPORT A
MARGINAL HAIL THREAT FOR A FEW HOURS.
..CONIGLIO/MOSIER.. 03/24/2015
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37069541 38809544 39449465 39519333 39209184 37919139
35459246 34639347 34509578 35079614 37069541
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|