MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0136
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0553 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SERN OK...NE TX NEAR RED RIVER...SWRN AR.

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 242253Z - 250130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AREAS S AND SW OF WW 5 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR CONVECTIVE
   TRENDS THAT WOULD INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL BACKBUILDING OR NEW
   DEVELOPMENT.  ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE STG/DAMAGING
   GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.  ATTM AREA AFFECTED AND LIKELY TIME WINDOW FOR
   ANY SVR THREAT EACH APPEAR SMALL...RISK BEING MORE MRGL AND
   CONDITIONAL WITH SWWD EXTENT.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS LOW ESSENTIALLY COLLOCATED WITH
   SVR CONVECTION OVER SWRN MO IN WW 5...WITH COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD
   ACROSS ERN/SRN OK NEAR TQH...MKO...ADH...15 NNW ADM...THEN SWWD
   ACROSS NW TX JUST S SPS.  FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD 10-15
   KT...OVERTAKING DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM FRONTAL INTERSECTION NEAR
   ADM...SSWWD BETWEEN RPH-MWL.  CONFLUENCE LINE WAS EVIDENT ON SFC
   CHART BETWEEN ADM-MLC...CORRESPONDING WELL TO NNE-SSW-ORIENTED
   BUNCHING OF CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FROM HUGHES COUNTY OK SSWWD TOWARD
   DTO.  FLOW HAS VEERED AHEAD OF DRYLINE AND W OF CONFLUENCE
   LINE...AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS.

   FRONT AND CONFLUENCE LINE SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARY FOCI FOR TCU AND
   PSBL CB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ENOUGH DIABATIC COOLING OCCURS
   TO STRENGTHEN PRESENTLY WEAK MLCINH.  NARROW CORRIDOR OF UPPER-50S
   TO LOW-60S F SFC DEW POINTS AND 11-12 G/KG MEAN MIXING
   RATIO...BENEATH 8 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUPPORTS MLCAPE
   1500-2500 J/KG AS ESTIMATED FROM MODIFIED MODEL SOUNDINGS.  TIME
   WINDOW OF OPTIMALLY WEAK CINH WILL BE THROUGH ABOUT 01Z.  THOUGH
   0-1-KM HODOGRAPHS ARE SMALL DUE TO VEERED/WEAK SFC WINDS...0-3 KM
   SRH AROUND 150 J/KG AND 35-45-KT EFFECTIVE-SHEAR MAGNITUDES MAY
   SUPPORT SOME TSTM ORGANIZATION.

   ..EDWARDS/HART.. 03/24/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34729344 33959414 33619493 33679583 34079669 34529684
               34739654 35059605 34709604 34589550 34569435 34729344