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Mesoscale Discussion 143 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0533 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MO...AND NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6...
VALID 252233Z - 260000Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 6 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WATCH
6 THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT SOME STRONG
WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST OK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SFC LOW AND DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTERSECTION AND WW 6
HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO THE SOUTHWEST /REF MCD 0142 FOR MORE DETAILS/.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FRONT IN LOGAN
COUNTY IN CENTRAL OK. THESE STORMS LIKELY WILL BECOME QUICKLY
UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5
DEGREES C PER KM AND MLCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KM IN CENTRAL TOWARD
NORTHEAST OK WILL STILL SUPPORT PRODUCTION OF VERY LARGE HAIL.
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST TOWARD E-CENTRAL OK INTO NW AR...INSTABILITY
BEGINS TO WANE...BUT IS STILL ADEQUATE IN COMBINATION WITH MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR 7.5 DEG C PER KM TO SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL.
OVER THE LAST 30-60 MINUTES DEVELOPING STORMS IN OKLAHOMA HAVE SHOWN
A TENDENCY TO QUICKLY BECOME LINEAR. WITH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT NEAR 8 DEG C PER
KM...ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN SURFACE BASED COULD POSE A DAMAGING
WIND THREAT IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF
TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE INCREASING...CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WERE
INDICATED PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KINX...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE
KTLX VWPS.
..LEITMAN.. 03/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36869799 37559146 35229142 34549800 36869799
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