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Mesoscale Discussion 144 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0144
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0646 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...EXTREME SRN IL AND FAR WRN KY...NERN AR
AND NWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 252346Z - 260045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH
SERN MO INTO EXTREME SRN IL AND EVENTUALLY FAR WRN KY...NERN AR AND
NWRN TN. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY LARGE
HAIL AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
SOON.
DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING SFC AND RADAR DATA INDICATE A FRONT
SETTLING SWD THROUGH SRN IL...AND SRN MO. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE ONLY MODESTLY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION WITH
MLCAPE FROM 500-1000 J/KG. NEVERTHELESS...LLJ WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP
EWD IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THE STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE
TO STRONGER CONVERGENCE AND ASCENT EXPANDING EWD WITH
TIME...CONTRIBUTING TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SUPERCELL STORM NOW OVER SHANNON COUNTY IN SERN MO WILL BE MOVING
EAST OF WW 6 BEFORE 0030Z.
..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 03/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...
LAT...LON 37399094 37658962 37598830 36798811 36188875 36279075
37399094
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