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Mesoscale Discussion 203 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0203
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0510 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WV INTO WRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 032210Z - 032345Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF TORNADO WATCH 23 INTO THE
MD AREA BETWEEN 2230 AND 23Z. AN ADDITIONAL DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION...CONSIDERABLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING AS OF
22Z OVER CNTRL INTO ERN KY WITH THIS ACTIVITY LARGELY BEING FORCED
BY WAA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG A 35-40 KT SWLY LLJ.
HOWEVER...RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND RAIN-COOLED AIR REMNANT FROM EARLY-DAY
TSTMS HAVE LIMITED AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THUS...DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG WLY DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOW.
NONETHELESS...LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE INTO THE APPALACHIANS MAY BRIEFLY
ENHANCE TSTM VIGOR WITH A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE AND/OR LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.
..MEAD.. 04/03/2015
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...ILN...
LAT...LON 38498305 38928249 39128136 38527984 37087989 36748019
36638074 36698129 36818172 37068190 37538173 38498305
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