MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0204
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0554 PM CDT FRI APR 03 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN AR...NRN/CNTRL LA...SERN TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 032254Z - 040100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OR TWO OF
   WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS...ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WHILE
   THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR LARGE
   HAIL REPORT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING
   FROM SRN AR SWWD INTO PORTIONS OF THE SABINE VALLEY AND SERN TX.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LINE OF CU/TCU ALONG THIS
   BOUNDARY...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST IN THE WARM
   SECTOR /POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY A PASSING GRAVITY WAVE/. WHILE THE
   REGIONAL WSR-88D MOSAIC SHOWS A BROKEN LINE OF STRONGER SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NWRN LA/FAR SRN AR...OVERALL
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MEAGER. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO A
   COMBINATION OF SEVERAL FACTORS...INCLUDING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE /WITH PRIMARILY VEERED SFC FLOW/...LITTLE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ALOFT...AND THE PRESENCE OF CAPPING AROUND 800 MB. AS THE
   PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE THE FRONT ITSELF...CELLS MAY ALSO
   HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE UNDERCUT THIS EVENING. 

   REGARDLESS...MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG AND ADEQUATE
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL
   THREAT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION IN ANY STRONGER CELLS. AS SUCH...AN
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT OR STRONG WIND GUST IS POSSIBLE THIS
   EVENING BEFORE INSOLATION WANES. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
   INHIBITING FACTORS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...A WW
   IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..PICCA/MEAD.. 04/03/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

   LAT...LON   32059442 32879361 33279288 33189260 32819235 32019232
               31389257 30859319 30309423 29819552 29939610 30749641
               32059442