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Mesoscale Discussion 295 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP SOUTH TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 140430Z - 140700Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL MAY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. AREAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW...SO WATCH ISSUANCE
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOPS SHOW AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORM
OVER ZAVALA/DIMMIT COUNTIES...NORTH OF LRD. HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED
WITH THIS STORM. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER WEST TX WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
REGION MOST OF THE NIGHT...WITH THE RISK OF OTHER STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS. MODERATE MUCAPE VALUES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OVER 45 KT
SUPPORT A RISK OF ROTATING STORMS PRODUCING HAIL. CURRENT ACTIVITY
IS QUITE ISOLATED...SO WATCH ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...RECENT HRRR AND OTHER MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. IF TRENDS WARRANT...A WATCH MIGHT NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
..HART/BROYLES.. 04/14/2015
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...
LAT...LON 28660046 29329889 28489789 27019799 26709897 26869938
27559967 28660046
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