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Mesoscale Discussion 1060 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1060
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KY...SRN OH...WV...NRN VA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181828Z - 182030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY TRAVEL EWD FROM SRN OH/NERN KY
ACROSS WV AND INTO NRN VA.
DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING HAS LED TO AN ERUPTION OF CELLS OVER NRN
KY WHICH WILL SOON MOVE INTO SRN OH AND INTO WV. THIS IS OCCURRING
BENEATH MODEST WLY FLOW ALOFT...AND WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LOW TO
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE. OVERALL HODOGRAPHS LENGTH IS ONLY
MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF LONG-LIVED CELLS...BUT THE FAVORABLE TIME
OF DAY AS WELL AS GENERALLY INCREASING FLOW WITH HEIGHT SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL AS WELL AS SMALL BOWING
STRUCTURES WITH WIND POTENTIAL.
IF OVERALL TRENDS CONTINUE UP...A WATCH MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED
FOR POINTS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS CONVECTION.
..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
LAT...LON 37208080 37778357 37988464 38658528 39178490 39308419
39528101 39357824 38927772 38187784 37387870 37217920
37208080
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