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Mesoscale Discussion 1061 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...OH...ERN INDIANA...SERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 181928Z - 182130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...STORMS COULD INCREASE IN INTENSITY OR GROW UPSCALE A BIT
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT. IF THESE TRENDS
INCREASE...A WATCH MAY BE CONSIDERED.
DISCUSSION...A NEWD-SURGING LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS IL AND NOW
CENTRAL INDIANA. THESE CELLS HAVE MAINLY CONTAINED WINDS OF 30-45 KT
ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN THUS FAR.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
ACTIVITY ACROSS NRN IND AND OH...BUT THICKER CIRRUS IS RESULTING IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO LOWER MI. STILL...AMPLE INSTABILITY EXISTS
TO SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
LATEST TRENDS SHOW SOME OF THE CNTRL INDIANA ACTIVITY TRENDING IN
MORE OF AN EWD DIRECTION...WHICH IS MORE ALIGNED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION. THIS SUGGEST
THAT THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE A GREATER CHANCE AT BECOMING SEVERE
AND/OR GROWING UPSCALE WITH TIME. IF THIS SHOULD OCCUR...THEN A
WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY. BOTH HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
..JEWELL/KERR.. 06/18/2015
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...
LOT...
LAT...LON 39288307 39348472 39498569 39928633 40398652 40978726
41418687 41938543 42358465 42828336 42768195 42138111
40678088 39668120 39328191 39288307
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