MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0843 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 150143Z - 150345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL IS
   EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FAR
   EASTERN CO INTO WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
   NEED FOR A WATCH IS UNCERTAIN...SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS WILL
   BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...OUTFLOW-PREVALENT STORMS/CELL MERGERS SINCE LATE
   AFTERNOON HAVE GRADUALLY LED TO UPSCALE GROWTH INTO MULTIPLE LINEAR
   BANDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN CO /ESSENTIALLY THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF
   COUNTIES/. AS OF 730 PM MDT/0130Z...THIS INCLUDES AN EVOLVING BOWING
   SEGMENT NEARING THE BURLINGTON CO AREA AREA...AND ANOTHER SOMEWHAT
   MORE ISOLATED STORM ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO THAT PRODUCED A 77-MPH/66-KT
   WIND GUST RECENTLY /0108Z/ AT LAMAR. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS STEADILY
   INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS ACROSS WESTERN KS/NEARBY EASTERN
   CO...AND A CONTINUED INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AS
   ALREADY SEEN IN WESTERN KS WSR-88D VWP DATA...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   INCREASING STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AND FURTHER UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR
   GROWTH. AT LEAST EPISODIC BOUTS OF SEVERE-CALIBER DOWNBURSTS AND
   PULSE-TYPE SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS FURTHER
   INCREASE/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT.

   ..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39290278 40200295 40770178 40410085 38350047 37580109
               37590276 39290278