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Mesoscale Discussion 1425 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0844 PM CDT TUE JUL 14 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ALABAMA...CENTRAL/NORTHERN GEORGIA...AND WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...427...
VALID 150144Z - 150245Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
424...427...CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...COMPLEX OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES A
SOUTHWARD TREK THROUGH THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
THE MAIN THREAT. PARTS OF WW 424 MAY BE CANCELLED...WHILE THE
THREAT WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS OVER WW 427.
DISCUSSION...A SOUTHWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX PERSISTS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE
WIND GUSTS REMAINING THE PRIMARY THREAT. NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER
COOLING HAS COMMENCED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
AND DEEP SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND THREAT
PRIMARILY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MATURE COLD POOL FROM NEAR TCL
TO NEAR GAD TO NEAR ATL AND AHN. NORTH OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
COLD POOL AWAY FROM THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORM CORES...CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING HAS STABILIZED MUCH OF WW 424 SUCH THAT A LARGE PART OF
THAT WATCH MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND HIGH-RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS COMPLEX IS POSSIBLE WITH TIME AS STORMS
MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT SOMEWHAT STABILIZED BY PREVIOUS CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR
SEVERE WIND GUSTS/WIND DAMAGE WILL EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
THROUGH 05Z.
..COOK/EDWARDS.. 07/15/2015
ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC...BMX...HUN...MOB...
LAT...LON 33808792 33358817 32798833 32308779 32058662 32108417
32238226 32538137 33568099 34208150 34428222 34548443
34338635 33988751 33808792
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