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Mesoscale Discussion 1427 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0337 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL/NERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 150837Z - 151000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...PERSISTENT MULTICELL CLUSTER SHOULD POSE A CONTINUED RISK
FOR STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTER CENTERED ACROSS OSBORNE/RUSSELL
COUNTIES HAS PRODUCED MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 42 KT AT KHYS AND 56 KT
AT KRSL OVER THE PAST HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY
SLOW MOVING AT ONLY AROUND 25 KT TO THE E...DESPITE PRESENCE OF
40-KT WLYS IN 4-6 KM AGL VWP DATA AT KGLD. BUT GIVEN ITS PRESENCE
ALONG AN AXIS OF PROBABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY...IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE
THAT A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED TO SUPPORT
CONTINUE EWD MOVEMENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ROBUST MLCIN ACROSS
S-CNTRL KS /PER MODIFIED 06Z LMN RAOB/. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS
REASONABLY SIMULATED BY 00Z WRF-NSSL AND 4-KM NAM-NEST GUIDANCE.
..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/15/2015
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 39649838 39679741 39519623 39289575 39089561 38889565
38599570 38399589 38339630 38349713 38409777 38589819
38729843 39649838
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