MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1257 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...GULF STATES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 151757Z - 151900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
   OF THE GULF STATES THIS AFTERNOON.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME AS CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. 
   EVEN SO...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS MIGHT BE NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING
   MECHANISM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE GULF STATES OVER THE
   NEXT 2-4 HOURS.  WITH TROUGH AXIS NOW SHIFTING EAST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS IT APPEARS WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG BACK SIDE OF UPPER
   TROUGH WILL PROVE ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NRN
   MS...SEWD TO COASTAL GA.  LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS CU FIELD
   IS EXPANDING/DEEPENING ALONG ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS
   THIS REGION...ESPECIALLY FROM ECNTRL AL INTO SRN GA.  THERMALS WILL
   CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND LIGHTNING SHOULD BE NOTED WITHIN THE NEXT
   HOUR OR SO WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW/HART.. 07/15/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34068889 33018516 32338097 30818135 31348665 33018983
               34068889