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Mesoscale Discussion 1525 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1525
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SE NEB...SW IA...NW MO AND FAR NE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250533Z - 250800Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
HOUR OR TWO ACROSS SE NEB AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF FAR SW IA...NE KS
AND NW MO. HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1011 MB LOW OVER SW IA WITH
A MOIST AXIS ACROSS ERN KS EXTENDING NNEWD INTO SRN IA WHERE SFC
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WITH MLCAPE VALUES
ESTIMATED IN THE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. AN MCS IS ONGOING ON THE
NWRN EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND IS FORECAST BY SHORT-TERM
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO CONTINUE EWD INTO FAR SW IA AND NW MO OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONCERNING THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...THE WSR 88D-VWP
AT TOPEKA SHOWS ABOUT 25 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH WINDS VEERING WITH
HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CELLS. RECENTLY
AT 0511Z...A MEASURED 50 KT GUST AT LINCOLN WAS OBSERVED AND WIND
DAMAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS CLUSTER TRACKS EWD.
HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39629315 39399382 39669521 40199694 40459730 41049723
41319649 41269519 41109421 40679308 39629315
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