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Mesoscale Discussion 1526 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1526
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN SD
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 251247Z - 251515Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS FAR SRN
SD AND MAY AFFECT AREAS NEAR THE SD-NEB STATELINE. ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT COULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...A WW WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
ONGOING IN SRN NEB LOCATED ALONG A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 60S F WITH THE
ACTIVITY LIKELY LOCATED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS SRN
SD...MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF STEEP-LAPSE RATES FROM ERN
WY INTO SWRN SD WHERE 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE
7.5 TO 8.5 C/KM RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE RAPID CITY WSR-88D VWP
SHOWS A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF A SEVERE THREAT WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR
IN THE 45 TO 50 KT RANGE. AS THE CELLS IN FAR NERN JACKSON COUNTY SD
AND IN FAR SERN HAAKON COUNTY MOVE ESEWD AT ABOUT 35 KT ACROSS SRN
SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STRONGER CORES. HAIL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES/GUYER.. 07/25/2015
ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...
LAT...LON 44100122 43720137 43310074 42939960 43039896 43729898
44079939 44130036 44100122
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