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Mesoscale Discussion 1641 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081831Z - 081930Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. WW
ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INLAND PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ALONG NORTHWARD-MOVING GUST FRONTS LOCATED
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST. THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER NORTHERLY DEEP SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20-30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 3000
J/KG MLCAPE. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...STRONGER CELLS IN
THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH TIME...CONTINUED INCREASING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/OVERTURNING AND STABILIZATION DUE TO THE
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SEA-BREEZE/GUST
FRONT SHOULD LESSEN THE INSTABILITY AND LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET. GIVEN THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
ACTIVITY.
..COOK/GUYER.. 08/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31408472 31618598 31828649 31978717 31978812 31488843
30838833 30338782 30338679 30108577 29718516 29678462
30038405 30448385 31088417 31408472
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