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Mesoscale Discussion 1642 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MN/FAR NORTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081849Z - 082115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST MN...AND PERHAPS SPREADING INTO
NORTHWEST WI. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. WW ISSUANCE IS
UNLIKELY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING FROM HUBBARD/WADENA AND
NORTHERN CASS COUNTIES MN INTO AITKIN COUNTY. THIS CONVECTION IS
FORMING IN VICINITY OF A POLEWARD-MOVING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WHICH EXTENDED FROM NEAR DLH WWD TO AN INTERSECTION WITH A SLOW
EASTWARD-MOVING FRONT...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TO
WEST-CENTRAL MN. DESPITE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DIABATIC
HEATING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE
REACHED AROUND 80 F COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE
60S IS RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500 J PER
KG/...THUS FAR.
THERE ARE SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES ONGOING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND
TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. DESPITE
THIS FACTOR...SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONGER WLY MIDLEVEL
WINDS...ATTENDANT TO A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN MN...AND CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES SUGGEST STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO FORM.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR EXCEEDING 35-40 KT OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF MN
WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND HEIGHT RISES MAY
LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH SUCH THAT THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL TEND TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS WITH STRONGER/SUSTAINED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.
..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46929530 48349417 48309330 47949210 47309203 46499224
45719257 45709419 45869502 46039564 46929530
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