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Mesoscale Discussion 1726 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0155 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...FAR E-CNTRL CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211855Z - 212100Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN KS...SWRN NEB...AND
FAR E-CNTRL CO. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS ARE
BEING MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RAPID GROWTH OF A
TOWERING CU FIELD ALONG/AHEAD OF A LEE SFC TROUGH...ORIENTED FROM
JUST W OF IML SSWWD TO NEAR LIC. THIS IS OCCURRING AMIDST STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING...AND AHEAD OF AN UPPER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF SRN WY
INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. CURRENT EXPECTATION IS FOR CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE GRADUALLY GROWING AND SLOWLY SPREAD EWD ACROSS SWRN
NEB/NWRN KS THE NEXT FEW HRS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AMIDST LOW-MID 60S
SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION...BUT GENERALLY WEAK MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR FOR A MORE ORGANIZED/WIDESPREAD SVR
THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
WIND GUSTS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST TSTMS THE NEXT FEW HRS. A
WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR
INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE/SUSTENANCE.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 08/21/2015
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38419966 38290196 39060355 39690284 40630227 41010158
40759910 39739880 38419966
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