|
Mesoscale Discussion 1727 |
< Previous MD Next MD >
|
|
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1727
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NM...WEST TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 212357Z - 220200Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS ERN NM AND WEST TX OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THAT COULD NECESSITATE
WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS 1003 MB LOW OVER SE NM WITH A
THERMAL AXIS IN FAR ERN NM WHERE SFC TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. IN ADDITION...A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED IN
WEST TX WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 60 F WHICH IS LIKELY RESULTING IN
MODERATE INSTABILITY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF THE MOIST CORRIDOR NEAR TUCUMCARI AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
ALONG THE TX-NM STATE-LINE WHERE CONVERGING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
PRESENT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE TX PANHANDLE MAY ALSO HELP SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CONCERNING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...THE LUBBOCK
WSR-88D VWP SHOWS VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 3 AGL
ALONG WITH ENOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THE
SHEAR...INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH
FOR STORM ROTATION AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. AS DOWNDRAFTS BECOME
MORE DEVELOPED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY
ALSO OCCUR.
..BROYLES/MEAD.. 08/21/2015
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33210215 33140296 33550339 35380359 35880222 35410160
33720155 33210215
|
Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
|
|