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Mesoscale Discussion 573
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0573
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0910 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018

   Areas affected...South Central Kansas...Northwest and Central

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 300210Z - 300415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms within WW 131 have shown some signs of upscale
   growth over the last hour. Severe wind gusts and isolated still
   remain possible with ongoing storms. Downstream severe thunderstorm
   watch issuance is possible should convective trends warrant.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in northwest and west-central Oklahoma
   have remained semi-discrete; however, signs of upscale growth are
   appearing on radar with several new cells developing in northwest
   Oklahoma atop the outflow from earlier convection. Effective shear
   values from RAP analysis, supported by KTLX and KFDR VAD profiles,
   remain high at 30-55 kts. Some elevated instability still remains
   per OUN and LMN 00Z soundings with MUCAPE at 1500-2000 J/kg. Latest
   CAM guidance still suggests that continued upscale growth should
   occur over the next hour or two with primary threats being severe
   wind gusts and isolated hail. Still, uncertainty exists with exact
   evolution and coverage of storms through the evening. A downstream
   severe thunderstorm is possible by 0230Z should upscale growth
   trends become clear.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/30/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36899850 36949781 36769685 36259667 35749680 35249693
               34789729 34729771 34719856 34759925 35129982 35809954
               36379905 36899850 

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