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Mesoscale Discussion 573 |
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Mesoscale Discussion 0573
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue May 29 2018
Areas affected...South Central Kansas...Northwest and Central
Oklahoma
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 300210Z - 300415Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms within WW 131 have shown some signs of upscale
growth over the last hour. Severe wind gusts and isolated still
remain possible with ongoing storms. Downstream severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is possible should convective trends warrant.
DISCUSSION...Ongoing storms in northwest and west-central Oklahoma
have remained semi-discrete; however, signs of upscale growth are
appearing on radar with several new cells developing in northwest
Oklahoma atop the outflow from earlier convection. Effective shear
values from RAP analysis, supported by KTLX and KFDR VAD profiles,
remain high at 30-55 kts. Some elevated instability still remains
per OUN and LMN 00Z soundings with MUCAPE at 1500-2000 J/kg. Latest
CAM guidance still suggests that continued upscale growth should
occur over the next hour or two with primary threats being severe
wind gusts and isolated hail. Still, uncertainty exists with exact
evolution and coverage of storms through the evening. A downstream
severe thunderstorm is possible by 0230Z should upscale growth
trends become clear.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 05/30/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...
LAT...LON 36899850 36949781 36769685 36259667 35749680 35249693
34789729 34729771 34719856 34759925 35129982 35809954
36379905 36899850
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