Mesoscale Discussion 1215
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern Oklahoma...Arkansas...and
   northwest Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181733Z - 182030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing severe
   potential this afternoon. Isolated strong to severe microbursts and
   perhaps marginally severe hail will be possible. Watch issuance is
   not expected at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows an increasingly
   agitated cumulus field extending from eastern Oklahoma into parts of
   Arkansas and northwest Mississippi -- where diurnal destabilization
   is occurring south of a quasi-stationary surface boundary draped
   across the Middle Mississippi Valley. As diurnal heating continues
   amid orographic circulations over the higher terrain in eastern
   Oklahoma and western Arkansas, isolated to widely scattered
   convection should develop during the afternoon hours. The modified
   12Z LZK sounding indicates steep midlevel lapse rates atop a
   moist/well-mixed boundary layer and minimal inhibition. While
   deep-layer flow/shear is weak across the area, isolated strong to
   severe downbursts and perhaps marginally severe hail will be
   possible with the stronger/deeper pulsating updrafts. Currently, the
   coverage and organization of strong to severe storms appears too
   limited for watch consideration, though trends will be monitored.

   ..Weinman/Grams.. 06/18/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33869383 34389528 34699567 35229569 35529526 35529484
               35189342 34889258 34699148 34499074 34348987 33908972
               33319002 33229123 33549277 33869383