Mesoscale Discussion 0798
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0809 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into northern Oklahoma and southern
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246...247...

   Valid 160109Z - 160245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 246, 247
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watches 246-247. Severe gusts remain the primary threat with merging
   multicells, with large hail continuing with the more discrete,
   persistent supercells.

   DISCUSSION...Cluster of merging multicells and their cold pools is
   underway across northern portions of the TX Panhandle, which have a
   history of producing occasional instances of severe hail and wind
   (with a couple of gusts exceeding 65 kts). Similarly, convective
   outflow over the southern TX Panhandle continues to support severe
   gusts as well (per latest observations). Finally, supercells persist
   along the KS/OK border area, with a dominant right-moving supercell
   having recently produced measured 4 inch diameter hail. 

   These storms continue to benefit from amply buoyancy residing atop a
   deep boundary layer (per the 00Z OUN observed sounding, which shows
   steep tropospheric lapse rates remain in place). Latest
   Warn-on-Forecast guidance suggests that storms across the northern
   TX Panhandle will continue to track northeastward, perhaps with a
   focused corridor of severe gusts. Guidance also suggests supercells
   along the KS/OK border should persist with a severe hail/gust threat
   for at least a few more hours. Finally, some of the latest runs of
   the Warn-on_Forecast ensemble guidance depict an appreciable severe
   wind swath approaching the Rolling Plains in TX. While severe gusts
   are being produced rapidly propagating eastward outflow, the severe
   threat is conditional upon the development of newer, robust
   thunderstorms.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/16/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33570253 36520135 37899858 37879624 37229597 36619646
               35239880 34440019 33390100 33570253